Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction — Ground Game Showdown in AFC North
AFC North battles are never short on grit, and this early Sunday game has all the makings of a bruiser. Both the Steelers and Ravens sit tied up at 6-6 and atop the division standings, but they’re heading in opposite directions despite what those records say. The Ravens are licking their wounds after a humiliating loss to the Bengals, while the Steelers are reeling from a blowout at home against the Bills. This Week 14 matchup could very well swing the playoff picture, so there’s plenty on the line for this game.
Game Info and Betting Odds
The game kicks off this afternoon at 12:00 PM CST, and Baltimore is a 6-point favorite at home. The total sits around 42.5, with the Ravens at -290 on the moneyline and the Steelers +235 as underdogs.
Bookmakers aren’t just leaning toward Baltimore — they’re planting their flag and making a statement, and there’s a good reason for that, and we’re going to dive into it.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +6 −112 |
O 42.5 −118 |
+235 |
| Baltimore Ravens | −6 −108 |
U 42.5 −102 |
−290 |
What the Numbers Say
These teams are eerily similar in record but worlds apart when you look at just how they get there. Pittsburgh has limped through games on the back of scrappy defense and a few flashes from classic Aaron Rodgers, while Baltimore leans heavily on a run-first offense with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry carrying the load.
Statistically, the Ravens have a clear edge offensively as they average 336.6 total YPG, good for 20th in the NFL, which is nearly 45 more than the Steelers, who are at 293.5 and sitting at 29th. That might not sound like much, but against a bottom-tier Pittsburgh defense, it definitely matters.
Derrick Henry has quietly racked up 931 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and now he gets a defense that just allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills — including 144 to the dominant James Cook. That’s not an isolated case, either. The Steelers are 17th in rush defense and have given up 118.7 YPG on the ground. You can bet Henry and Jackson are licking their chops for this showdown.
Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 5th in rushing offense, averaging 136.8 YPG. That’s their identity, and it’s a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s worn-out front 7.
On top of that, it doesn’t help the Steelers that both Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Watt are listed as questionable. Rodgers has 19 TDs but 7 picks, and if he’s out or limited, the offense gets even uglier. Watt’s potential absence would be a massive blow to their defense as he leads the team with 7 sacks. Without him, there’s little to pressure Jackson or contain Henry and they’ll surely take full advantage of that.
Recent Form and Momentum
The Steelers have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, including a 26-7 drubbing by Buffalo. What really stands out is that they’ve been outscored 63-33 over their last 2 losses. Yes, they had a convincing win against the Bengals whereas the Ravens notched a loss, but even that came with Cincinnati missing key starters.
Baltimore isn’t exactly on a tear either, but their loss to the Bengals last week with a 32-14 score is misleading. The Ravens actually outgained Cincinnati and had 2 touchdowns wiped away by penalties or turnovers. Before that, they’d won 4 straight, including solid wins over the Jets, Browns, and Vikings. Without those penalties and turnovers, they would’ve been competitive, and you can bet they’ll clean that up for this week.
At home, Baltimore is undoubtedly tough. The Ravens control time of possession at 28:57 per game, good for 25th overall but still better than Pittsburgh, and they’ve got one of the league’s most creative offenses when it comes to motion plays and base fronts. They lead the NFL in yards per play on motion with 7.4 and first drives with 7.6, which matters if they get ahead early.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, ranks 30th in time of possession and 28th in total offense. It’s not hard to see them falling behind and struggling to catch up.
The Matchup That Matters Most
This game really boils down to Baltimore’s rushing attack vs Pittsburgh’s front 7. That’s where this game will be decided. The Ravens don’t hide what they want to do — they’ll feed Henry, sprinkle in designed runs for Lamar, and grind clock. It’s a simple but effective gameplan.
And it’s not just volume. Henry has torched Pittsburgh in recent meetings, rushing for 162 and 186 yards in his last 2 matchups against them, so it goes to show he’s not intimidated. The Steelers don’t have a counter for him, especially if T.J. Watt is sidelined.
Flip it around, and the Steelers’ best shot is through the air. Aaron Rodgers has 2,000+ passing yards, but the Ravens rank 3rd in defensive success rate since Week 8, and they’re top-10 in DVOA against the pass. Plus, Rodgers hasn’t exactly lit it up against pressure this year — all of which are big considerations for this game.
Baltimore’s defense isn’t elite overall, but they’ve tightened up recently, and their pass defense ranks better than their numbers suggest, especially in situational football. If Rodgers falls behind, he’ll be forced to throw, and that’s when mistakes happen and picks get added to the scoresheet.
Prediction — Ravens Pull Away Late
Baltimore has too much working in their favor. They’re at home, they’ve had extra rest, their biggest strength (rushing) directly attacks Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness (run defense), and they’re facing a Steelers team that’s banged up, inconsistent, and just got worn out on defense after facing 74 plays last week.
The betting public is absolutely hammering Pittsburgh, with over 66% of tickets and 75% of the money backing them as of early week reports. But this feels like one of those “sharp vs square” games as the public loves the underdog, but the matchup screams favorite.
- Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17
- Best Bet: Ravens -6
It’s not just a lean—it’s a confident pick. Baltimore should cover this number at home with ease. If Henry gets rolling, and he surely will, the Ravens will dominate time of possession, keep the pressure off Jackson, and grind out a comfortable win. Even if it’s close early because Pittsburgh tends to do that, Pittsburgh’s depth and defensive fatigue should show up late.
If you want a little more juice on the bet slip, taking Baltimore -6 is the play. Avoid the total as it could go under if Pittsburgh stalls, but Baltimore’s offense is efficient enough to hit 30 themselves. The better value is laying the points and walking away with the win.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
