Pirates vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks for September 10

The Pittsburgh Pirates roll into Camden Yards for game 2 of their 3-game set, and they’re trying to stop the bleeding after 4 straight losses. Fortunately for them, they’ll turn to their ace Paul Skenes to do it. The Baltimore Orioles, fresh off a walk-off win against these same Pirates in extras last night, are hoping to build on that momentum and make it 5 wins in their last 6.

With both teams well outside the playoff picture, this may not look like a high-stakes game, and it’s not, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some serious value for bettors, especially with a clear pitching edge on one side.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The Orioles took the opener of the series in 11 innings, winning 3-2 to take the edge in the series. Now the Pirates look to even things up behind Paul Skenes, who’s been nothing short of elite in his rookie season.

Skenes comes in with a 10-9 record, 1.98 ERA, an insane 0.94 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts in 173 innings of work. In his most recent outing against the Dodgers, he threw 6 scoreless frames with 8 Ks and no walks. Over his last 6 starts, he’s gone 5-1 and hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of them. That includes elite performances against some of the best teams like the Blue Jays and Dodgers. At this point, it’s safe to say that Skenes is unstoppable.

On the other side of the diamond, Tyler Wells will be making just his 2nd start of the year after returning from elbow surgery that cut his 2024 season short. In his return, he tossed 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Padres, giving up 5 hits and striking out 4. Solid, but we have to keep in mind that it’s just a small sample — and now he’ll face one of the toughest pitchers in baseball, though not one of the most powerful lineups.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

The bookmakers have the Pirates as -156 favorites on the moneyline, while the Orioles are +128 underdogs. The run line has Pittsburgh -1.5 at +118 odds and Baltimore +1.5 at -144.

The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the over at -102 and the under juiced to -119. That tells us that the bookmakers lean toward a lower-scoring game, and it’s hard to argue with that when Paul Skenes is pitching.

Who Has the Edge?

Let’s get the obvious out of the way — Paul Skenes gives Pittsburgh the advantage every single time he takes the bump. He’s not just having a good rookie year, instead, he’s already one of the most dominant starters in the league. He ranks in the top 5 in ERA and WHIP, and his 195 Ks are tied for the 4th most in MLB. Against a Baltimore lineup that doesn’t have a ton of power or even contact, Skenes should be able to work deep into the game again.

While the Pirates’ lineup has been underwhelming most of the year, they’ve shown a few signs of life. Bryan Reynolds is doing his part, hitting .246 with 15 HRs and 70 RBIs. Oneil Cruz leads the team in HRs with 19, although his batting average sits at just .202. Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom in nearly every team offensive stat, such as 28th in batting average and 30th in homers per game, but Skenes has carried them through that all season.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has a slightly better offense, but it’s still not great. They rank 22nd in batting average with a .240 and 12th in home runs per game at 1.2. Gunnar Henderson is doing his part with a .272 AVG, 16 HRs, and 61 RBI, and Jackson Holliday comes in with a .250 AVG and 17 HRs as both of them are their main weapons. But against top-end pitching, this lineup has been inconsistent.

The Orioles’ bullpen and pitching staff as a whole have been shaky to say the least. They rank 25th in team ERA with a 4.63 and 28th in OBA with a .261. That leaves them vulnerable, especially with a starter coming off injury and likely on a pitch count.

Why the Pirates Can Win — and Cover

This game shapes up well for the Pirates, and not just because of Skenes. While they’ve lost 4 in a row, they’ve been competitive in 3 of those games, including the series opener against Baltimore last night that went into the 11th. With their ace on the mound, the pressure is on the Orioles to scratch out runs against a guy who’s been nearly unhittable all season long.

If Pittsburgh can put a couple of early runs on the board against Wells or even the bullpen, that might be all Skenes needs to get the win on his record. The Pirates are 8th in OBA and 13th in ERA, so if they get a lead, their pitching can typically hold it.

Let’s not overlook momentum either. The Orioles have won 4 of 5, and while they were relatively close games, they were against some of the best teams in the MLB — the Dodgers and Padres. However, Skenes presents a different level of challenge, and the Orioles haven’t faced a starter like this since before the All-Star break.

Prediction and Best Bet

When you’ve got the best pitcher on the mound, you’re in a good spot, and as a bettor, we always try to take advantage of these situations. Paul Skenes has proven he can dominate any lineup, and the Orioles just don’t have the firepower to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s offensive weaknesses. Tyler Wells is still ramping up and finding his groove, and that leaves the Baltimore bullpen vulnerable against a Pirates team desperate to end their losing streak.

• Pirates vs Orioles Prediction: Pirates 4, Orioles 2
• Best Bet: Take the Pirates moneyline at -156

For a little more risk and better value, Pirates -1.5 at +118 is worth a look as well. That’s especially true if you believe Skenes goes deep and the Orioles can’t get anything going. If you’re into MLB player props, keep an eye on Skenes OVER 7.5 strikeouts — he’s hit that mark in 5 of his last 6 starts and against this Orioles lineup, he should be able to blow right through that.