Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet of Opening Day

Opening Day is finally here, and we’re kicking things off in Miami where the Pittsburgh Pirates head to loanDepot Park to take on the Miami Marlins for the big day. This is a matinee game, so the first pitch is at 3:10 PM ET, with Paul Skenes and Sandy Alcantara squaring off in a pitcher’s duel that has the total sitting at just 6.5.

Pittsburgh comes in as the road favorite at a heavy -160, but there’s a lot to unpack on both sides, so don’t write off the Marlins just yet.

Pirates Are Favored, But There’s Value in the Underdog

Paul Skenes is making his Opening Day debut and of course that brings plenty of hype.

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year put up a ridiculous 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts last year even on his short season. The Pirates won 15 of the 23 games he started, and when they were favored with him on the mound, they went a solid 12-6.

But Skenes will have to deal with a Miami lineup that’s a little scrappier than most, even if they’re not stacked with power.

Xavier Edwards is the man to watch at the plate. He hit a decent .328 with a .397 OBP in limited time last season and stole a whopping 31 bases. If he can get on base, he can cause some serious problems for Skenes and challenge the Pirates’ catchers early in the game.

The Marlins, as a team, struggled however in 2024. Their 62-100 record tells us everything we need to know about a roster in transition. But they get their ace, Sandy Alcantara, back from his UCL sprain. He hasn’t pitched since 2023, but don’t forget — this is a guy who won the Cy Young in 2022 after throwing 228.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA.  If he’s even close to that form, he’s more than capable of going toe-to-toe with Skenes.

While the Pirates have more momentum and higher expectations coming into Opening Day, Miami has the potential to steal this one with Alcantara on the mound and some timely offense.

Don’t Be Fooled By the Total — Runs Can Still Come

The total sits at just 6.5, which is low even for an Opening Day matchup with ace-level arms. Books are giving these pitchers a lot of respect and we can see why. But let’s not forget that the over is still in play.

Last season, the Pirates hit the over in 77 games, and the Marlins topped it in 86. That’s more than half the time for both. And while both starters are capable of keeping this game tight and runners off of the bags, each offense should have chances.

Pittsburgh scored 4.1 runs per game last year — not elite, but respectable — and Miami gave up a dismal 5.2 runs per game, which ranked 29th in the league. The Marlins also allowed 195 dingers, one of the worst totals in baseball. That’s a problem when you’re facing big bats like Joey Bart, who slugged 13 homers in just half a season for Pittsburgh.

Miami’s .244 team batting average was actually better than Pittsburgh’s .234, and they hit fewer home runs overall, but they could still push across runs through contact and speed. After all, it’s a new season and they might try something different. If Edwards gets going, it opens up opportunities for small-ball manufacturing, especially in a pitcher’s park like loanDepot with Skenes on the bump.

Prediction and Best Bet

This matchup features a premium pitching duel on paper, but if there’s anything we’ve learned over the years, that doesn’t always mean an automatic under. The Pirates are rightly favored with Skenes taking the mound, but this isn’t a slam dunk, either.

Alcantara has the kind of stuff that can neutralize a lineup like Pittsburgh’s, which ranked 23rd in batting average and 25th in home runs last season. If he’s on, this game becomes a coin flip. Add in the Marlins being at home, and there’s solid value on their +135 moneyline. This might not be the most popular pick because everyone loves Skenes, but we see this going toward Miami.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Marlins 5, Pirates 4
• Best Bet: Marlins ML (+135)

This is a spot where the sharp play is on the dog. Alcantara’s return, Edwards at the top of the order, and a Pirates bullpen that showed cracks late last year with minimal improvements in the off-season give Miami enough of a path. Skenes may still dominate, but it won’t take much for Miami to squeeze out a 3-2 or 4-3 type win especially if they can get him off of the mound by the 5th or 6th inning.

And for those sports bettors looking at the total, lean Over 6.5 at -110. One half-decent inning could break it. After all, Opening Day nerves are real, even for aces.