Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The New York Mets are riding high with a 5-game win streak as they host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Citi Field for game 2 of their 3-game series.

The Mets sit comfortably at the top of the NL East with a 16-7 record, while the Phillies, at 13-10, are looking to close the 3-game gap for the division lead.

Last night, the Mets took the series opener 5-4, giving them a 1-0 edge in this 3-game set that could change the trajectory of the division. With Cristopher Sanchez on the bump for Philly and Griffin Canning starting for New York, this matchup will undoubtedly deliver plenty of action for bettors.

Odds Breakdown and What They Mean

The betting lines show the Mets as underdogs, which doesn’t quite make sense given their recent hot streak and home-field advantage, but then again, you have to consider the SPs. The moneyline has the Mets at +114, while the Phillies are underdogs at -135. The run line sits at Mets +1.5 at -155 and Phillies -1.5 at +130, showing the market expects a close game but still gives Philly a slight edge to win by 2+. The over/under is set at 8 runs, with the over at -110 and the under at -110 as well.

The bookmakers obviously see the Phillies as a slight favorite to win outright, likely due to Sanchez’s better numbers compared to Canning. But the Mets’ recent form and offensive firepower, led by Pete Alonso, make them a live underdog at home. 

The total at 8 runs means we just might see some runs on the board, especially with both teams’ offenses clicking lately. Philly’s team batting average is .251 with 193 hits and 341 OBP, while the Mets are hitting .231 but have racked up 305 OBP and 174 hits. The question is — will Sanchez or Canning be enough to keep runs off of the scoresheet?

Analyzing the Pitching and Hitting Matchup

Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies has been solid this season. He’s 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and a respectable 1.15 WHIP, and has struck out 31 batters while allowing 24 hits and 6 walks over his 4 starts. He’s also given up 4 dingers, which could be a concern against a Mets lineup that has some pop and some power.

On the other side of the field, Griffin Canning for the Mets is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He’s allowed 21 hits, struck out 21, and walked 10 while giving up just 2 home runs over his 4 starts. Canning’s control issues, with those 10 walks, might hurt him against a patient Philly lineup that’s drawn 66 walks as a team. This is probably the biggest reason the bookmakers have the Phillies as the favorite.

Offensively, the Phillies have some serious firepower. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 7 home runs, 16 RBI, and a .268 AVG, making him a threat to go deep every at-bat. Bryson Stott adds a bit of consistency with a .295 AVG, .356 OBP, and .449 SLG, keeping the lineup moving. The Phillies have scored a total of 107 runs as a team, showing they can put up decent numbers. But their pitching staff has a 3.5 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, which isn’t elite and could let the Mets’ bats get going and tilt this game the other way if they’re not careful.

The Mets counter with a big bat of their own, Pete Alonso, who’s been a beast with 6 home runs, 24 RBI, and a .341 AVG. His .444 OBP and .695 SLG show he’s locked in right now, a nightmare for any pitcher. Unfortunately, Juan Soto is taking a while to get hot, but when he does, this team will be unstoppable. The Mets have scored 96 runs as a team, and while their 2.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the mound give them a pitching edge over Philly, Canning’s inconsistency might open the door for the Phillies’ offense to take over. The Mets are also striking out more, with 224 Ks compared to Philly’s 225, so both teams can be prone to chasing pitches.

The Mets have been 5-0 in their last 5 games, with wins over the Cardinals and Reds and an average of 4.2 runs per game. The Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5, beating the Giants and Marlins but losing to the Mets and Cardinals. However, they’ve scored 4.7 runs per game in that span.

Philly’s road record is 4-6, while the Mets are 10-1 at home, this could be the decider in tonight’s game.

Prediction and Our Top Pick

This game clearly comes down to the starting pitching and the Mets’ home dominance.

Sanchez gives the Phillies a slight edge on the mound with his better ERA and WHIP, but his 4 yard bombs allowed could be trouble against Alonso, who’s been mashing lately and not looking to slow down. Canning has been decent for the Mets, but his 10 walks worry us against a Phillies lineup that’s patient and has Schwarber ready to go yard on any mistake.

The Mets’ impressive 10-1 home record and 5-game win streak show they’re tough to beat at Citi Field, and their bullpen has been stingier with a 2.43 ERA compared to Philly’s 3.5.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Mets 4, Phillies 3
• Best Bet: Mets on the moneyline at +114

We’re feeling like the Mets will keep their momentum going. They’ve got the crowd behind them, and Alonso is swinging a hot bat, likely to take advantage of Sanchez’s tendency to give up the long ball. The Phillies’ offense is undeniably strong, but the Mets’ pitching staff has been better at limiting damage, and on top of that, Canning should keep it close enough for New York’s bats to pull ahead late.

We expect a tight game, but the Mets’ recent form and home advantage tip the scales in their favor.

Now, if you’re looking for a decent prop bet for the Phillies vs Mets game, Alonso to hit a home run could be worth a look at a decent +425, given Sanchez’s struggles with the long ball and Alonso’s 6 homers already this season. However, for the main bet, you might want to stick with the Mets to win outright and keep their streak alive.