Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Philadelphia Phillies head to Wrigley Field this afternoon to open up a 3-game weekend series against the Chicago Cubs. These 2 teams are headed in opposite directions right now, but nonetheless still solid teams in the NL. The Cubs are sitting fairly comfortably atop the NL Central, while the Phillies are trying to stop the bleeding after a rough stretch.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The Cubs come into this matinee game with a 16-10 record and riding a 2-game win streak where they swept the dominant Dodgers. They’ve taken 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 10 runs in a couple of those games. That’s a team clicking on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 13-12 and have lost 4 straight despite having a decent start to the season. They were just swept by the Mets, and their confidence has clearly taken a hit as they head into the Windy City.

Taijuan Walker gets the start for Philadelphia. He’s been one of the few bright spots during this slump. Through 19.2 innings, Walker owns a 2.29 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and he’s struck out 16 while walking just 8. He’s done a solid job keeping hitters off balance and limiting damage, allowing only 2 dingers on the year. This is a game in which the Phillies really need him to step up and do his thing.

For the Cubs, it’ll be Colin Rea on the bump. Rea has yet to pick up a decision this season, but he’s been undeniably sharp. In just 13.2 innings of work, he’s sporting a 1.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, with 12 strikeouts and just a single walk. He’s been efficient, throwing strikes, and keeping runners off the basepaths. Though he hasn’t worked deep into games, typically going 3-4 innings in, the Cubs bullpen has been more than capable of finishing the job when he exits.

At the plate, Kyle Tucker has been the guy for Chicago. He’s leading the team in nearly every major offensive category — batting .314 with 7 home runs and 25 RBIs. He’s more than capable of taking care of any mistakes Walker presents to him. The Phillies’ best power threat, Kyle Schwarber, also has 7 homers, but he’s driven in just 16 runs while hitting a mediocre .258. Bryson Stott has been their most consistent bat overall with a .298 AVG and a .440 SLG, but this offense as a whole hasn’t clicked recently. If they’re going to snag a win in this series, they’ll need everyone to pull their weight.

Odds and Betting Breakdown

Chicago enters the matchup as the slight favorite at -142 on the moneyline, and based on the numbers, we think that’s justified. The Cubs are the league’s top offense in terms of both teams’ batting average at .265 and runs per game at 6.3. They’re also top 4 in HRs and SLG. They’ve been equally effective at home and on the road, going 8-5 in each.

Philadelphia’s overall team numbers are just a step behind and they have +120 odds on this game. They’re hitting .251, scoring 4.4 runs per game, and rank near the bottom of the league in power numbers. On the road, the Phillies have really struggled, going just 4-8 this season and Wrigley Field isn’t a place they can turn it around.

Wrigley Field has averaged nearly 12 runs per game this year, making it one of the highest-scoring fields in the league. That definitely adds weight to any over/under bets which are set at 8 runs with the over at -118, especially with the Cubs being 16-8-2 to the over this season. Philadelphia sits just under .500 in that area, but with how shaky their pitching has been outside of Walker, the over is a very real option for today’s game.

Analysis, Prediction, and Best Pick

There are a few reasons to like the Cubs in this spot.

First, the offense is smoking hot. They’ve lit up both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks over the past week and are spreading the wealth through the lineup. Sure, Kyle Tucker has been a force, but the Cubs have depth — Tauchman, Swanson, and Happ have all come through in recent games and are not looking to slow down at all.

On top of all that, they’re at home, where they’ve been consistent, and the environment at Wrigley right now is electric. It’s tough to walk into that stadium as a visiting team when you’re on a 4-game skid and that’s exactly what the Phillies are doing with this matinee game.

While Taijuan Walker has the better overall numbers between the 2 starters, he doesn’t have the same run support that Colin Rea benefits from. And Rea isn’t a slouch, either as has done everything asked of him to keep the Cubs in games. If this turns into a bullpen battle or a slugfest late, the edge still leans toward Chicago.

Philadelphia is giving up 4.6 runs per game and scoring just 4.4. That’s not going to cut it against the surging Cubs, who lead the majors in scoring and rank top 5 in nearly every offensive stat category. The Phillies’ lineup is top-heavy, and when the top of the lineup doesn’t produce, they don’t win. Unless something big happens, this game is going to go one way.

• Prediction: Cubs 6, Phillies 3
• Best Bet: Chicago Cubs moneyline at -142

The Cubs are rolling, they’re at home, and they’ve got the bats to keep the pressure on from start to finish. Even if it’s close early on in the game, Chicago’s offense should eventually break through and take the win to open up the series.