Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Philadelphia Flyers take on the New York Islanders tonight at UBS Arena in what we think will be a tight Metropolitan Division battle between two middle-of-the-pack teams. With both teams fighting for consistency, the Islanders are heading into tonight as slight favorites with -155 moneyline odds, while the Flyers sit at just +130.

Don’t be fooled by the records of these teams, there are still plenty of betting opportunities to be found.

Odds and Matchup Analysis

The Islanders come into this game with a 19-20-7 record. That puts them dead last in the Metropolitan Division but still just 4 wins away from holding a playoff slot as the Eastern Conference is super tight.

Despite their struggles, they’ve shown some grit at times, especially on home ice. However, their offense is what has been dragging them down this season as they’re ranking 29th in goals scored with just 122 through 46 games. To take that a step further, their shooting percentage of 9.2% is also next to last in the league. All of this simply highlights their inability to finish scoring opportunities. 

The Flyers, with their 22-21-6 record, have been the better-scoring team, ranking 14th in goals scored. Like the Islanders, they’re still a far cry from the playoffs.

For the most part, the Flyers have been solid in transition and have relied heavily on Travis Konecny. He leads the team with 21 goals and 34 assists, but they definitely lack any depth in scoring. Still, the Flyers have had issues defensively as they’re sitting 28th in goals allowed.

All of that is to say we think special teams could play a role here.

The Flyers rank 29th in power-play percentage at a dismal 16.1%, but the Islanders are even worse — if you can believe it — as they’re sitting last in the league with a 12.5% power-play success rate.

On the penalty kill, Philadelphia holds the edge with 77.4% vs. the Islanders 67.7%, which could tilt momentum their way if the Islanders struggle with staying out of the penalty box.

Recent Form and Key Players

The Flyers have gone 3-1-1 in their last 5 games, including a 5-3 win over these very Islanders nearly 2 weeks ago. Despite a blowout loss to the Rangers last night, they’ve shown they can hang with stronger teams from time to time. That definitely bodes well for them against the struggling Islanders.

Samuel Ersson, who has started in the crease 24 games for Philadelphia, has a shaky .891 save percentage but tends to get the job done if the offense can get points on the board.

The Islanders, meanwhile, are 3-2-0 in their last 5 games, picking up wins over Columbus and San Jose. Don’t get too excited over this stretch, neither of those teams are all that great. They dropped their last meeting against Philadelphia and have struggled to create any amount of offensive pressure.

Anders Lee and Bo Horvat lead the Islanders offensively, but their production hasn’t been enough to lift the team above mediocrity. These 2 have 36 combined goals which is just 1 goal above the NHL leading scorer, Leon Draisaitl. 

Goalie Ilya Sorokin has a slightly better save percentage than Ersson at .902 but has not played up to the typical elite standards he’s been known for in the past.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game could come down to who can capitalize on their chances. Neither team is all that great offensively or defensively, so it could end up going to whoever makes the fewest mistakes.

The Flyers have shown they can exploit the Islanders’ weaknesses, particularly in their recent win where they found the back of the net 5 times. Philadelphia also holds a slight edge in scoring depth and has been more consistent in recent games. They might not be a great NHL team, but they’ve shown they can get the job done when they need it the most.

On the other end of the ice, the Islanders’ home ice and solid goaltending from Sorokin give them a slight fighting chance — but not much. However, their offensive struggles and league-worst power-play percentage make them hard to trust as a favorite for tonight’s matchup.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Flyers 3, Islanders 1
• Best Bet: Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline (+130)

The Flyers have already proven they can win against this Islanders squad. With Konecny leading the charge, they should have the upper hand offensively even if it’s not by much. The real betting value lies with Philadelphia here, especially as underdogs in a matchup they can exploit.

For total points, the under 5.5 goals (-120) is a tough bet, but we like it, as both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and recent matchups are pointing to a low-scoring game. However, the Flyers’ value on the moneyline is the strongest play for this game.