Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Dallas Stars are coming in tonight with a 29-17-1 record and will host the Vegas Golden Knights with their 30-14-4 record at the American Airlines Center. 

With the Stars sitting at just -155 on the moneyline, they’re considered slight favorites, while the Golden Knights, at +130, come in as the underdogs in this Western Conference showdown. The over/under is set at 6 which tells us this will most likely be a low-scoring, defensive-led game.

Puck drop is slated for 6:30 PM CST, and both teams will be eager to bounce back from some recent inconsistencies.

There is plenty of bets to be made and we’ve got all of the analysis and a prediction of how it’ll go down.

Odds and Recent Form

Dallas is listed as a -1.5 favorite on the puck line (+165), which really goes to show their solid defense and home-ice advantage. Vegas, getting +1.5 at -200, delivers some strong value for bettors banking on a close game.

Looking at their recent stretches, the Stars are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Sure, they have shown flashes of offensive dominance, such as their 4-1 win against Detroit a few nights ago, but beyond that, they haven’t looked great. Goaltender Jake Oettinger remains the biggest factor for Dallas, with a strong .914 save percentage and a 2.26 GAA, which puts him among the league’s elite. However, the Stars’ offense has dropped off recently. They’re averaging 0.7 fewer goals per game in their last 10 games compared to their season average.

Vegas, on the other hand, is 4-5-1 over their last 10 games. That’s not great, but it does include a much-needed 4-2 win over St. Louis last night. Despite their offensive firepower led by Jack Eichel and his 59 points this season, the Golden Knights have struggled with consistency on the defensive end, as Adin Hill’s .902 save percentage ranks near the bottom for starting goalies.

With that, it looks like it’s going to be a slugfest on the ice as both teams try to scrap for any goals they can.

Defensive Edge: Dallas

The Stars boast the league’s top PK unit as they’re operating at an impressive 85.8% efficiency. This could spell trouble for Vegas, whose power play of their own ranks 4th in the NHL at 27.4%. If Dallas can avoid the penalty box, we’re thinking that they’ll have a solid chance to control the game from start to finish.

In 5-on-5 play, Dallas is also a bit more disciplined as they commit fewer penalties overall. Their defensive structure, combined with Oettinger’s dominance between the pipes, gives them a hefty edge against a Golden Knights team that’s been prone to defensive lapses over their past few games.

Offensive Firepower: Vegas

Vegas undeniably holds the edge offensively as they’re ranking 5th in the NHL in goals scored with 163.

Their depth scoring is a big reason for their success. With players like Pavel Dorofeyev and his 21 goals stepping up alongside Eichel, once they’re in the offensive zone, they’re nearly unstoppable.

However, Dallas counters with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, who both have been carrying the Stars’ attack all season. Robertson’s 15 goals and 27 assists make him the biggest threat for the Knights, especially at home.

Still, the Golden Knights will need to generate high-quality scoring chances to beat Oettinger. He has been nearly unbeatable when fully locked in.

Prediction and Best Bet

While Vegas has shown some resilience on the road, Dallas’ home-ice advantage, elite PK, and insanely dominant goaltending easily tilt the game in their favor.

The Stars’ defensive efficiency should neutralize the Golden Knights’ potent power play, while their offense, led by Robertson and Duchene, will capitalize on Vegas’ defensive vulnerabilities.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Golden Knights 2
• Best Bet: Dallas on the moneyline at -155

We like Dallas here as they offer a safe pick given their ability to control the game defensively. The puck line might be a stretch, but the moneyline is much safer.

The under 6 at -120 is also a strong bet, as both teams have leaned toward low-scoring games over the last few weeks. We expect Dallas to win outright and lock in 2 points in the standings.