3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 24

Saturday night’s NHL slate has a few shooters who are priced to keep firing, and shots on goal props are one of the friendliest markets for new bettors to learn. You don’t need a puck to cross the goal line, you just need the player to get the puck on net.

Our model flagged three over bets on shots, and each one comes with a clear reason. Here is how the picks look, why the numbers back them, and where the risks are hiding.

Trevor Connelly Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-160)

Trevor Connelly has become a regular piece of the Vegas Golden Knights’ forward group, and the left winger has been getting on the scoresheet with four goals and three assists so far this season. He wears No. 24, and he has drawn power-play minutes in several games, including 4:39 on the man advantage against Tampa Bay on October 20.

The recent shot log is mixed, and it is worth being honest about that. He had two shots against Pittsburgh and Nashville, one each against Calgary and Tampa Bay, and was held without a shot at St. Louis on Thursday. His recent volume sits right around the 1.5 line, which is why the price is steep at -160 on DraftKings. The model puts the chance of two or more shots at 81.3%, so the case here is about a line the model thinks is too low for a player who gets power-play time on one of the league’s more active offenses.

Columbus is the matchup that helps. The Blue Jackets are 3-5 on the season with a minus-9 goal differential, and Vegas is a quality attack facing a team that has been giving up chances. A game that stays open and shot-heavy for both sides is exactly what this bet needs.

Zach Werenski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)

Werenski is the easiest shot volume to explain in this entire slate. The Columbus defenseman wears No. 8, plays heavy minutes, and is averaging 3.13 shots per game this season. He logged 27:11 against Toronto on October 20, and his recent shot totals were 9, 3, 1, 3, 1, and 4 across his last six games.

That 9-shot night against the Maple Leafs shows the ceiling, but the more important number is the ice time. Werenski has played between 26 and 32 minutes in nearly every game this month, and a lot of that comes on the power play, where he is the quarterback. More minutes mean more chances to fire the puck, and defensemen at that usage tend to hit three shots more often than a casual bettor expects.

The risk is that he has had a couple of one-shot nights too, so the 2.5 line is not automatic at -160. Still, Columbus is home at Nationwide Arena and is likely to chase the game against a Vegas team that scores, which tends to push a team’s top defenseman into more shooting situations. The model’s 69.7% probability lines up with that.

Cole Hutson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140)

One note before we get into it. Cole Hutson plays defense for the Washington Capitals, and he is the home player when the Sabres visit Capital One Arena. Hutson wears No. 44, and the rookie blueliner is averaging about 2.4 shots per game through nine appearances, with 22 total shots.

His recent log is steady: three shots against Los Angeles, two against New Jersey, three against Montreal, five against Seattle, and two against the Rangers. He has cleared two shots in seven of his nine games, and he has been given the second power-play unit, averaging nearly two minutes a night on the man advantage along with about 18:50 of total ice time.

Washington is dealing with some roster movement, with goalie Logan Thompson listed day-to-day and defenseman Vincent Desharnais out after an appendectomy. That could thin the Capitals’ blue line and push Hutson into even more minutes. Our model gives him a 68.9% chance to get two or more shots, and at -140 that is a reasonable number to take. If you want to compare prices, a quick look at live NHL odds will show where each book stands.

Lock In the Shot Volume

These three bets all lean on the same idea: players with real ice time, power-play roles, and favorable game scripts tend to clear modest shot lines. None of them are guarantees, and the juice on each is real, so size your bets with that in mind and shop the number at your book before locking anything in.

• Trevor Connelly OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-160 at DraftKings)
• Zach Werenski OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-160 at DraftKings)
• Cole Hutson OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-140 at DraftKings)

Shots props reward patience and role awareness, so keep an eye on lineups before puck drop. If you are new to a sportsbook, our DraftKings promo code page walks through the current welcome offer.