Patriots vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks
Two division leaders are going head-to-head in Tampa tomorrow when the red-hot New England Patriots put their 6-game win streak on the line against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a bye and looking to stay undefeated at home and retain their title at the top of the NFC South. Both teams are undoubtedly playing solid football, but only one has truly looked like a contender over the past month, and you might just be surprised.
Game Details and Betting Odds
Kickoff is set for tomorrow at Raymond James Stadium, with the Bucs listed as 2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. The over/under is set at 48.5 points, and the Pats come in as a +124 underdog on the moneyline, while Tampa is favored at -148.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +2.5 −110 |
O 48.5 −115 |
+124 |
| Buccaneers | −2.5 −110 |
U 48.5 −105 |
−148 |
That betting line surely reflects home-field advantage, but it doesn’t necessarily capture the way these teams are trending over their last few days. New England is rolling, with dominant wins over playoff-level teams. Meanwhile, Tampa has been uneven — beating the teams they should, but looking a little more vulnerable against better opponents.
How They Match Up
QB Drake Maye has been everything the Patriots hoped for — and more. He’s thrown for 2,285 yards, 17 TDs, and only 4 picks, showing maturity well beyond his years. The biggest problem for him is that he’s been sacked 34 times, the 2nd-most in the league, but most of those are on him holding the ball too long — not necessarily poor protection. He’s learning, adapting, and starting to burn blitzes with quick throws. This is a problem he can overcome on his own.
Across the field, Baker Mayfield has played through injuries and been solid if unspectacular. He has 1,919 yards, 13 TDs, and just 2 interceptions — but the offense hasn’t taken off as he’d hoped. Tampa ranks just 14th in scoring with 24.6 points per game, and their 3rd down percentage is 36.3% which ranks 25th. Mayfield is dealing with oblique and knee issues, and with key pieces on offense — including Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving — still banged up, there are big questions about what this group can do if forced to throw the ball to keep up.
New England, on the other hand, ranks 7th in PPG with 26.3 and 9th in total offense, averaging 367.6 yards a contest. They’re getting it done through the air with Stefon Diggs and his 508 yards and 2 TDs, and on the ground with Trevevon Henderson, who has quietly racked up 283 yards despite his limited workload. What’s even more impressive is that they’re top 10 in time of possession and 3rd-down conversion rate, which means they’re staying on the field and wearing defenses down.
Defensively, this one isn’t even close. The Pats rank 5th in points allowed with 18.8 and 1st against the run, giving up just 75.4 YPG. They’ve been dominant in the trenches and fast to the ball, led by linebacker Harold Landry III with his 5.5 sacks and Robert Spillane, who has 72 total tackles. Their ability to crush the run game and force teams into 3rd-and-longs has made life easier on their secondary — and put pressure on opposing QBs.
Tampa’s defense is good, but definitely far from great. They allow 22.3 PPG and give up more yards than New England in every category. They do have a strong pass rush with 25 sacks, tied for 5th in the NFL, but they’re not elite in any other area. In fact, Tampa has struggled inside the 20 as their red zone defense is middle-of-the-pack, and their red zone offense is even worse.
That could be a game-changer for this showdown.
The Buccaneers are just 11-of-22 in red zone TD opportunities, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. In their win over the Saints, they had to run 5 straight plays inside the one-yard line just to get a TD — and even then, it took a 4th-down plunge to do it. That lack of execution will hurt against a Patriots team that can score and eat up tons of clock.
Also worth noting that the Patriots are undefeated on the road. They’ve beaten Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Atlanta in recent weeks — several of those by double digits. Those aren’t the best teams in the NFL, but nonetheless, they’ve proven they can win in hostile environments. Coach Mike Vrabel has them locked in.
Prediction and Best Pick
Tampa Bay has home-field advantage and is coming off a bye, but we don’t think that’s enough to overcome the gaps in execution, red zone struggles, and big injuries. It’s a simple equation — New England is simply the better team right now, and Drake Maye is playing like a seasoned vet. With a balanced offense, a top-tier defense, and all the momentum in the world, this feels like the Patriots’ game to lose.
If Maye can just limit some of the negative plays and get the ball out on time, the Patriots will control the tempo, take the crowd out of it, and get another big road win. Meanwhile, Tampa needs to be just about perfect to pull this off — and with the way their red zone offense has sputtered, it’s hard to see that happening.
- Prediction: Patriots 27, Buccaneers 20
- Best Bet: Patriots +2.5 and Moneyline at +124
The points are nice, sure, but the Patriots are good enough to win outright.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
