Panthers vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet for Game 1

Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs opens tonight with a big matchup as the Florida Panthers travel to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is the 2nd time in 3 years these teams meet in the second round, and Toronto’s looking to settle the score after being bounced by Florida last year. That might be a tall order as the Panthers are looking just as good as they did then.

Florida enters fresh off a 5-game series win over the Lightning. They were sharp on both ends of the ice and didn’t leave much room for doubt. Toronto needed 6 games to get through their Battle of Ontario, but the offensive talent showed up when it mattered and they were able to get the job done.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This is Game 1 of what we think will be a back-and-forth series, and the Leafs will look to capitalize on home ice.

While the bookmakers are favoring the Panthers at -125, this is about as even as it gets with the Leafs as underdogs at +105. Even the 60 minute line is at +125 for Florida and +160 for the Maple leafs which means there’s a really good chance this game goes into OT.

Florida is coming in with a little more rest and a touch more consistency on the back end. The Panthers have handled business early, outscoring their opponents and shutting things down defensively. Meanwhile, Toronto leaned on high-powered scoring to outlast Ottawa in Round 1.

Sure, oddsmakers have this one close, with a slight lean toward Florida based on current lines, but it’s tight either way which means this is going to be a great game.

Stats, Trends, and Matchup Breakdown

The Panthers have been quietly dominant despite winning the Stanley Cup last year.

They’re giving up just 2.40 goals per game in the playoffs, tied for second-best among all postseason teams. Sergei Bobrovsky has been a beast between the pipes with a .906 SV%, and Florida’s blue line has helped limit high-danger chances.

They’re also getting timely goals. Through 5 playoff games, they’re scoring 3.80 per game, tied for 4th. Sam Reinhart leads the charge with 39 goals this season and 81 total points and even had 2 goals and 4 assists in the first series. Aleksander Barkov continues to be the motor that drives Florida’s top line with his 51 assists on the season and defensive reliability. He racked up 4 assists and 1 goal in the first series as well.

What stands out about Florida is its balance. They’re not leaning too heavily on one line or one single player — they get contributions from everywhere. That’s the depth a team needs to go deep into the playoffs.

Special teams have also been one of their big strengths. The Panthers’ PK unit has been strong, operating at nearly 89% in the playoffs, and that could be a big deal against a dangerous Toronto power play.

Toronto, on the other hand, brings offensive firepower. Mitch Marner continues to produce at an elite level. He finished the regular season with 102 points and has been active on both ends during the playoffs where he’s posted 1 goal and 7 helpers against Ottawa. William Nylander adds a sniper’s touch with 45 goals on the season and has 3 goals and 6 assists in the postseason. The Leafs average 3.17 goals per game in the playoffs so far, which puts them in the middle of the pack. What’s the most dangerous, though, is their power play — it’s clicking at over 35% in the postseason, and it could be the equalizer in this series.

Goaltending is where Toronto faces the biggest questions. Joseph Woll has a .909 SV%, which is decent, but his 2.73 GAA suggests he’s had some shaky moments. Their overall defense ranks just behind Florida in goals allowed at 2.67 per game, but they’ve looked more vulnerable in open play. Ilya Samsonov hasn’t been a reliable option, and Matt Murray only has a single playoff start this year. The best shot they have is starting Woll tonight.

In terms of trends, they’re pretty telling. The underdog has covered the puck line in each of Florida’s last 9 games in Toronto. That’s not a small sample, and it points to Florida keeping things close or winning outright which really supports the odds. The last 6 matchups between these 2 — when the Panthers came in off a road win — have all gone under the total goals line which is set at 5.5. That trend fits with the defensive structure both teams bring and the nerves of a Game 1.

Toronto has been strangely strong in one area — playing on Mondays as underdogs. Of course, it’s an odd trend, but they’ve won their last 6 Monday games in that spot. It’s a quirky trend, but not one to hang your entire pick on.

Prediction and Best Bet

Florida has the undeniable defensive edge. They’re deeper, more rested, and have more stability in goal.

Sergei Bobrovsky isn’t the best goalie left in the playoffs, but he’s proven more dependable than what the Leafs are working with right now with Woll. Combine that with better 5-on-5 play and a strong PK unit, and Florida checks a lot of boxes for a Game 1 road win.

Toronto is always dangerous with their top-end scorers. If the power play gets rolling, they can absolutely steal a game, but we’re not so sure it’s going to be tonight’s game. They’re going to need more than a flash to break through Florida’s structured play.

We’re looking for the Panthers to keep the Leafs in check, take advantage of their goaltending edge, and grind out a tight win in a low-scoring opener.

• HelloRookie’s prediction: Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 2.
• Best Bet: Florida Panthers moneyline at -125

If you’re feeling bold, you might want to take a look at the Panthers on the puck line at +205 at -1.5. That’s not too tall of an order considering there’s a good chance they can notch an empty-net goal.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Series Schedule