Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

With the series deadlocked at 2-2, the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs are squaring off tonight in Toronto in what is undeniably a crucial Game 5 that could swing the entire Eastern Conference Semifinal. This series has been the tightest of the NHL playoffs and both teams have only won on their home ice. So, is this game going to go Toronto’s way?

Game Details & Betting Odds

Toronto took an early series lead with back-to-back one-goal wins at home, but Florida has answered with grit and defense on their home ice.

Game 4 saw the Panthers shut out the Leafs 2-0 behind an absolutely dominant performance by Sergei Bobrovsky, evening things up and shifting momentum.

Florida is a modest moneyline favorite at -135, while the Leafs are priced on the moneyline at +114. The +1.5 puck line leans heavily toward Toronto at -218, showing just how tight the bookmakers are viewing this game.

The total sits at 5.5 goals with the over slightly juiced at -122. With 3 of the first 4 games going well over this mark, we expect more fireworks from the offenses tonight as well despite what we witnessed in Game 4. 

What We’ve Learned Through 4 Games

The Panthers flexed their depth and structure in Game 4 as it’s not too often you see a shutout in the NHL playoffs.

They outshot the Leafs 37-23, owned puck possession for long stretches throughout the game, and dominated in shot quality. They also won the special teams battle, converting on 1 of 6 power plays while killing off all 3 Toronto chances. That’s been a theme this series — Florida’s penalty kill at 87.9% is a big edge over Toronto’s underwhelming 79.3% unit.

Florida’s Sam Reinhart continues to be the biggest difference-maker as he leads the team with 39 goals this season and chipping in big playoff minutes. He already has 8 points so far in the postseason. But one of the most underrated contributors has been Aaron Ekblad. The veteran blueliner has quietly recorded at least one point in 10 of his last 11 games and has 4 points already this postseason.

For Toronto, Mitch Marner has carried the load with 102 points in the regular season and remains a consistent two-way presence up and down the ice. William Nylander, the team’s top goal-scorer with 45 in the regular season, had his moments in the first 3 games but was held quiet in Game 4 — well, all of the Leafs were quiet. Overall, he does have 15 points in the playoffs.

Goaltending has been solid on both sides. Bobrovsky’s 23-save shutout in Game 4 was his most efficient outing this series, but Joseph Woll was equally sharp despite the loss. He turned away 35 shots with a .946 SV%, which by any standard is an all-star performance.

What’s holding the Leafs back? Their top-end offense hasn’t found answers for Florida’s defensive structure, especially when trailing. The Panthers know how to kill games late and they’ve shown that in games 3 and 4. Getting their win on the road is going to be critical in this series if they want to move on to the Eastern Conference finals.

Best Player Prop Bet — Aaron Ekblad Over 0.5 Points (+126)

There’s excellent value in Aaron Ekblad to record at least one point.

He’s been one of Florida’s steadiest contributors this postseason, at least when he’s in the lineup, and continues to quietly rack up offense from the blue line.

In the first 4 games of this series, he’s posted a point in 3 of them which all happen to be helpers from the blue line. His minutes are back up as well as he’s pushing well over 25 per night the last 2 games — and he’s involved in power-play setups and late-game puck movement.

Ekblad’s passing has been crisp and sharp, his vision strong, and his usage reflects the trust Florida’s coaching staff has in him. With the Leafs struggling to break out of their zone under pressure, Ekblad should have plenty of chances to pick up another point in Game 5, whether it’s via a secondary assist or contributing to a power-play goal.

At plus money, this prop is worth a long look. You could even pair it up with the Panthers vs Maple Leafs prediction and the best bet we’re about to give you for a solid SGP.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This series has been a back-and-forth grind and that’s what makes NHL playoff hockey the best. However, Florida’s Game 4 performance showed they can dictate pace when they stick to their game. To everyone’s surprise, their defense has limited Toronto’s high-danger looks, and Bobrovsky looks locked in again. Combine that with their dominant special teams and steadier depth scoring, and the edge easily leans toward the Panthers heading into Game 5.

Toronto will push, and this game should stay tight. But if Florida controls the neutral zone and capitalizes on special teams again, as we expect, they’re walking out of Game 5 with a 3-2 series lead as they head back to Florida for Game 6.

• Prediction: Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 2
• Best Bet: Florida Panthers moneyline at -142

While these aren’t the best odds, we simply can’t pass up the Panthers on this one. We expect them to grit this one out and get another win to back the Maple Leafs into a corner.