Padres vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet

The San Diego Padres are one of baseball’s hottest teams, and they’ll look to stay that way in Game 2 of their series against the dominant New York Yankees tonight. Fresh off a 4-3 win in the series opener last night, San Diego comes in on a 6-game winning streak which includes sweeping the Pirates and taking the series from the Giants, while the Yankees are reeling, having lost 3 straight games.

This game is definitely lining up to be a battle of momentum versus raw power. The Yankees have the better offensive metrics, but San Diego is pitching circles around almost everyone they come across right now. Tonight, something’s got to give.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

Michael King has been a quiet ace for the Padres this season. The RHP holds a 4-1 record with an insane 2.09 ERA which puts him in the top 10 of MLB starters and a 1.01 WHIP. He’s been a model of consistency as he’s thrown at least 5 innings in every start since April began. In his last outing against San Francisco, King gave up just a single earned run while striking out 6 over 5.2 innings. He also dominated Colorado back on April 13 when he tossed a complete-game shutout with 9 Ks.

King’s command is undeniably sharp, his stuff is moving, and his ability to mix speeds has made it tough to square up regardless of who’s at the plate. He’s tied for 15th in the league in strikeouts with 46 and has allowed just 3 home runs across nearly 39 innings. He’s absolutely dominant on the bump.

Opposite him, Clarke Schmidt hasn’t inspired the same confidence. He’s just 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in just 14.2 innings this year. Schmidt has battled his own control issues, walking 9 and allowing 12 hits in the few innings he’s pitched. He’s also been hit hard, giving up 3 dingers, and has yet to pitch past the 6 inning. You can bet the Padres are looking forward to this matchup.

New York may be hoping for a bounce-back start, but based on what we’ve seen, Schmidt hasn’t shown he can keep the ball in the park or avoid huge innings against a lineup like San Diego’s.

Momentum vs Power

Statistically, this matchup is tighter than it seems. Of course, the SPs are a bit lopsided, but there’s more to the game than just those 2.

The Yankees have a slight edge in batting average with a .260, HRs with 58, and slugging with .467 compared to the Padres .260 AVG, 49 HRs, and a .388 SLG.

But the Padres make up ground in several key areas. Their team ERA of 2.73 ranks No. 1 in all of baseball, and their pitching staff has walked fewer batters and held opponents to a lower average. Their WHIP at 1.14 is also better than New York’s at 1.20.

Even more important than that is the Padres are finding ways to win. They’ve taken 6 games in a row and are 12-7 in night games. Over their last 5, they’ve outscored opponents a whopping 24-10. During that same span, the Yankees have gone 1-4, giving up 22 runs and losing twice to Tampa Bay. Momentum goes a long way in the MLB.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been one of the key drivers for San Diego. He’s hitting .317 with 8 HRs and 18 RBIs. His ability to stretch singles into doubles and create pressure on the basepaths gives the Padres an edge against teams with shaky pitching. However, Tatis has been a bit cold over the past few games as he’s only logged 1 hit in his last 4 games and struck out 3 times against the Yankees last night.

While Aaron Judge is putting up MVP numbers for New York with his .414 AVG, 11 HR, and 33 RBI, the rest of the lineup has been a bit inconsistent. Judge has scored in 15 of his last 17 home games after playing the day before, which is incredible, but it’s not enough when the starting pitching can’t hold leads or keep the game close early.

Prop Bet Spotlight — Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases

One prop that really stands out to us is Fernando Tatis Jr. to go over 3+ total bases at +150. We get it, that seems like it’s out of reach, but hear this one out.

Tatis isn’t just hitting for average — he’s producing plenty of XBH. Of his 39 hits, 15 have gone for extra bases. That includes 8 home runs 4 doubles and a triple. Against Clarke Schmidt, who has given up a HR in each of his 3 starts and hasn’t been able to keep runners off base, Tatis is in a good spot to do some serious damage tonight.

If he gets 2+ at-bats against Schmidt, he could easily grab a double or homer and cash this number early. Even if it takes until the later innings, the Yankees’ bullpen has been hit or miss as well, so Tatis has a real shot at clearing this line.

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet

This game comes down to the starting pitchers and recent form and when you look at that, there’s a clear winner in tonight’s matchup.

The Padres have a major advantage on the mound with Michael King. He’s kicking off a great start to 2025 and looking to have a career season. They’re also in a better rhythm overall — cleaner at-bats, more timely hits, and a pitching staff that’s shutting teams down. The Yankees will need more than another Judge HR to get back on track and that’s a tall order against King.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Padres 5, Yankees 3
• Best Bet: San Diego Padres moneyline

With all signs pointing toward San Diego continuing their hot stretch, we’re calling the best bet the Padres on the moneyline. If we were into taking bigger risks, we could go with the Padres on the -1.5 run line at +154, but the moneyline is the safer bet overall. 

While you’re at it, don’t sleep on that prop bet. Tatis against Schmidt is a great matchup for Tatis and that’s a cool +150 on the bet slip. Pair that up with the Padres moneyline, and you’re looking at a parlay of +260. We think that’s a quick way to turn $5 into $18.