Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for Monday Night Showdown

The San Diego Padres kick off their 2nd 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight and after their series just last week, the Dodgers currently lead the Padres 2-1. On top of that, they will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound for the first time in over a year. The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, who’s been inconsistent in recent starts. With fireworks already in this series — games of 11-1, 5-2, and a narrow extra-inning loss for the Padres — this finale has all the ingredients for another high-stakes clash that you’re not going to want to miss out on.

Game Details and Starting Pitching Matchup

Tonight’s game is at Dodger Stadium, where offense has been the story all year. The park averages just shy of 11 runs per game, and the total has gone over in 24 of 37 games this season. It’s not exactly what we’d call a pitcher-friendly setting — especially not with these two lineups, but there’s a bit of a twist in tonight’s matchup.

Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound after a lengthy rehab. While he’s been tearing it up at the plate with 25 home runs, a .297 average, and 41 RBIs, this will be his first appearance as a 2-way player in 2025. There’s an obvious risk with how deep he can go, but even 5 solid innings of work from Ohtani’s stuff can tilt the scale.

Dylan Cease draws the start for San Diego, and it’s been a rough ride. His 2-5 record, 4.28 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP over 75.2 innings show a drop from his peak. He’s just not looking like himself. He’s given up 8-yard bombs already, and control has been an issue as he’s walked 29 batters. Against a lineup like L.A.’s, there’s not much room for error and we’re not sure he can pull this one off despite pulling off the big 11-1 win in the second game against the Dodgers, but that’s a tall order for it to happen again.

Betting Odds and Market Movement

As of this morning, the Dodgers are -157 favorites on the moneyline, while the Padres are +128 underdogs. The run line has Los Angeles -1.5 at +128, and the Padres getting a run and a half is priced at -157. The total is set at 9 runs, with the over at -105 and the under at -115.

That moneyline just goes to show the bookmaker’s confidence in Ohtani and the Dodgers’ overall talent edge. The high total is a nod to the ballpark and how much these teams have scored in this series already. With odds like this, we’re not seeing a big edge one way or the other as they look spot on.

Game Breakdown — Why Dodgers Have the Edge

The Dodgers lead the season series 2-1 after winning 2 of the first 3 games just last week. They exploded for 14 runs throughout that series, and even when the bats cool, they’re rarely shut down. Statistically, they lead MLB in batting average with .264, home runs at 112, and runs per game at 5.5. The offense runs deep, with Freddie Freeman hitting a .336 AVG and .558 SLG and Teoscar Hernández with 50 RBIs providing steady power behind Ohtani. So, they don’t rely on just a single bat to get the job done.

The Padres are solid but not on the same level offensively. Their team batting average is .249 which is good for 14th, and they rank 27th in home runs per game. Manny Machado has been consistent with his .316 AVG, 10 HRs, and 43 RBI, and Fernando Tatis Jr. remains dangerous with his 13 HR and .277 AVG, but their run production can vanish on any given night. In their last game against the Dodgers, they only put up 2 runs.

Defensively and on the mound, the Dodgers have also been better. Even with a slightly inflated 4.19 ERA, their bullpen has handled business, at least enough to let their bats get hot. Meanwhile, Cease has failed to go deep in recent outings, putting more pressure on San Diego’s pen — which has already logged a lot of innings this week.

Another big factor is night-game performance. The Dodgers are 30-22 under the lights, while the Padres are 24-19. Both aren’t bad, but then you add in the Dodgers’ strong 22-14 home record, and the edge clearly lies with the team wearing white tonight.

There’s also the psychological factor. This is a nationally televised matchup with Ohtani back on the mound — Dodger Stadium is going to be rocking seeing him on the bump again. That energy often turns into early runs, especially against shaky starters like Cease.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This game leans heavily toward the Dodgers in multiple ways. Ohtani may be on a lighter pitch count, but his presence alone boosts the team’s energy and confidence heading into the matchup. Combine that with one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and Los Angeles should find enough offense to back up their starter and seal the series win.

• Padres vs Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers 6, Padres 4
• Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line at +128

Dylan Cease has proven he is capable of getting the job done but hasn’t been able to string together quality outings on a consistent basis. Facing the Dodgers in this park is the wrong spot for him to pull it all together. If Ohtani is even close to form, which we couldn’t imagine LAD letting him start if he wasn’t, Los Angeles should control the game from start to finish.

The safe bet is the moneyline at -157, but we love plus money payouts so we’re going to go with the Dodgers with -1.5 on the run line at +128. It’s a risk, but the money makes it worth it.

If you’re looking for a decent player prop in this game, we like Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 strikeouts at +100. It’s a really low bar even if he’s not going deep into the game, but he could get that before the first inning is over. Let’s not forget what he was doing on the mound before his Tommy John surgery.