The NFC North is home to the longest-running and arguably most vitriol-filled rivalries in pro football. The Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers have played each other nearly 600 times combined since the 1920s, and the latest addition to that total will occur tonight on Thursday Night Football between the Lions and Packers.
Detroit is off to its best start in franchise history in 2024. Dan Campbell’s hungry pride has won 11 of 12 games and leads the NFC in the race to the top seed and a first-round playoff bye. Among their victories this season, the Lions defeated the Packers by ten and covered the number at Lambeau Field in early November.
For Green Bay, their season has gone better than expected as well. They will reach 10 wins with a win tonight, tying or surpassing their preseason win total at most outlets with four games to go. Jordan Love has been on fire since the beginning of Toyotathon this year (if you know, you know), leading the league in EPA per dropback, yards per dropback, and TD percentage per ESPN’s Mina Kimes.
In all seriousness, Love has been at his best in November and December since taking over as a starter, where he completes more of his throws, averages more yards per attempt, and has a TD-to-Int ratio of 26 to six.
In the recent history of this series, Detroit has won four of the last five and is 2-1 in games featuring Jared Goff and Love. In both games where Love threw an interception against Detroit as a starter, the Packers lost. The Lions are favored by the standard three points at home tonight with a point total of 51.5 on DraftKings.
My last prop article went 2-0 in the Ravens-Chargers game on Monday night of Week 12. We’d love to roll that momentum into another winning night with the following plays.
It’s puzzling to see Reed’s total here sitting in the mid-60s when he has 91 combined yards from scrimmage over his last three games (30.3 ypg). It would seem that sportsbooks are looking back to November 3 when Reed snagged five passes from six targets for 113 yards against Detroit at home.
The Packers trailed for that entire game following an early 3-0 lead, which benefited Reed in terms of game script. With a three-point spread on deck for tonight, it should still be close enough to get Reed the targets and rushing attempts needed for a win.
The tight end drafted very early in many fantasy drafts this season is starting to find his form amid a down second year in the league. After topping out at five targets in the first six games of the year, LaPorta has garnered six targets in four of his last five appearances and is translating those looks into scores.
Four of his five touchdowns this season have occurred since Week 7, including multiple scores last week despite only six receiving yards from three catches. LaPorta found paydirt in Detroit’s home meeting with Green Bay last year and we like him to repeat that tonight.
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