Oilers vs Panthers Game 4 Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick

We’ll own the fact that we struck out with the last 2 picks, but this time we’re riding with conviction. The Edmonton Oilers are down 2-1 in the Stanley Cup Final to the defending champion Florida Panthers, but this Game 4 matchup screams bounce-back for the road team and there’s a lot to back that assertion. After a pair of rough losses in both Edmonton and Sunshine, Edmonton has its back against the wall and that’s exactly when the stars are supposed to show up.

Game 4 Details and Betting Odds

Game 4 is set for tonight with puck drop scheduled for 8 PM ET. The Panthers will be at home in Sunrise, where they just routed the Oilers 6-1 in Game 3 to take firm control of the series.

Florida comes in as the favorite with -155 on the moneyline, and it’s hard to argue with the line after the last 2 games.

They’ve taken the last 2 matchups — one in double OT and the other in dominant fashion — while capitalizing on every Edmonton mistake. However, it’s not just about the final scores and there’s more to the games than just what’s on the scoreboard. Sure, Game 3 was ugly on the scoreboard, but there are reasons to believe the Oilers can punch back.

Series Recap and Key Team Breakdown

Game 3 was Florida’s best performance of the postseason. They scored 6 goals from 6 different players, including 2 power-play goals from Sam Reinhart and Evan Rodrigues. If that doesn’t scream depth, then we don’t know what does.

The Panthers went 3-for-11 on the man advantage and completely punished Edmonton for their sloppy play. The Oilers racked up 21 total penalties and spent 85 minutes in the box. That’s not just simply undisciplined — that’s absolutely reckless against a team like the Panthers.

But here’s what the final score hides — Edmonton actually had more shots on goal than Florida with 33 compared to their 31. They won more faceoffs with 32 to 30, laid more hits with 34 to 26, and blocked more shots 17 to 15. Statistically, this wasn’t a game where they got run out of the building in every category which you’d expect when the score is 6 to 1, but they just got buried by mental mistakes and gave Florida too many easy chances. You can’t do that at this level and they know that.

The Oilers’ big guns were silent. Leon Draisaitl, the team’s top scorer with 106 points spanning 52 goals, and 54 assists in the regular season, was a non-factor. Connor McDavid, who leads the NHL in assists with 74, had no impact whatsoever in the offensive zone. Florida has done a great job neutralizing both players, but you have to imagine that doesn’t last forever; not with these 2. In fact, we’re willing to bet those 2 all-stars take it personally.

For the Panthers, Reinhart continues to be the spark. He now has 39 goals and 81 total points on the year. Aleksander Barkov is moving the puck well too, with 51 assists and a +19 rating on the season. But the question is, can Florida sustain this level of execution against a team as good as the Oilers? Game 3 felt like everything clicked — including some lucky bounces. If Edmonton tightens up, things will undoubtedly look different fast.

One of the more telling stats was that Florida had 7 giveaways compared to Edmonton’s 12, but they only had 3 takeaways. That tells you a lot of the Oilers’ problems were self-inflicted and you can bet they’re tightening all of that up over the day off.

No, this wasn’t a Florida team forcing turnovers all night — Edmonton just handed them too many.

Why This Is Edmonton’s Game to Win

Game 4 is the classic “backs against the wall” moment for the Oilers and that makes it a great game to bet on.\

They’ve already proven they can win on the road, taking Game 1 in OT. But more than that, we’re banking on pride and firepower from some of the best players in the NHL.

Draisaitl and McDavid are simply too good to be quiet for long. McDavid hasn’t had his moment yet in this series. That’s unusual — and you know he knows it. The Oilers need their stars to shine, and history shows they tend to respond when pushed.

Discipline will be the biggest difference in tonight’s matchup. Edmonton’s PK got gassed last game and gave up 3 goals. But if they clean that up, they’ve got the firepower to get back in this series. Florida has been solid, but they haven’t exactly been bulletproof at 5-on-5. Edmonton matched their shot output and looked stronger physically up and down the ice. If they stay out of the box, and they should, this is a winnable game.

There’s also a question of emotional edge. The Panthers just blew out their opponent with a whopping 6-1 win. They’re feeling confident — and maybe too confident. Game 4 is a natural letdown spot for them, and Edmonton knows if they lose this one, it’s probably over. We expect a different energy from the puck drop.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

Edmonton has been waiting to punch back after their Game 2 loss, and Game 4 is when it happens.

The scoreboard in Game 3 was brutal, but not everything under the hood was. They’ve shown they can keep pace with the best teams, including Florida — they just need to stop handing Florida chances. If McDavid and Draisaitl show up like they usually do, this series shifts back to Edmonton tied.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Oilers 4, Panthers 2
• Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers moneyline at +130

We like them to come out with urgency and finally break through. The safest bet is to take the Oilers on the moneyline at +130, which is a solid way for us to get back on track with this series. On top of that, you also might want to consider Leon Draisaitl OVER 1.5 Points as a strong player prop at +120. He’s due for a statement game — and this is the time he’s going to shine.