MLB Tuesday Predictions: Live Odds and 2 Early Best Bets for July 1

Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! We hope you found some MLB winners on your Monday card. Tuesday’s slate of games is stacked with lots of solid matchups like the Yankees vs. the Blue Jays and the Brewers vs. the Mets. Other intriguing spots could include the Guardians vs. the Cubs and the Giants vs. D’Backs.

While those may turn out to be remarkable games, we’ve found two early totals in the San Diego vs. Philadelphia and Minnesota vs. Miami matchups to jump on before the market moves.  Best of luck with your action, my friends.

Best Bet: Padres / Phillies Under 8.5 (-119) (DraftKings)

SD at PHI – 6:35 PM EDT (Nick Pivetta vs. Cristopher Sanchez)

Why in Sam Hill is this total so high? Yes, I get that these two teams combine to score 9.09 runs per game when adjusting for home and away splits. However, I adjusted that number downward by 1.5 runs because of these two dynamic starting pitchers.

I’m a big believer in Nick Pivetta, as I’ve made some nice coin betting his K props over the last couple of seasons. The fire balling righty should be able to contain a Phillies offense that has been struggling a bit at the dish of late. Philadelphia ranks just 19th in WRC+ over the last two weeks, and I don’t see them magically figuring things out on Tuesday, even with slugger Bryce Harper back in the lineup.

Cristopher Sanchez doesn’t get the hype he deserves because he pitches on the same staff as Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and Aaron Nola. That being said, Sanchez has the stuff to baffle this Padres lineup. San Diego ranks just 19th against southpaws this season, which is a good sign for our Under.

Both teams’ bullpens are also above average, so we have that going for us as well. San Diego ranks a solid 5th in K minus BB rate, which Philly isn’t too shabby either at 13th. Give me an Under on a total that looks to be at least a run too high on Tuesday evening.

Other Trends to Consider

• The Under is 46-34 this season in Padres games.
• The Under is 45-35 in Phillies games this season.
• The Under is 37-21 in Padres non-division games this year.

Best Bet: Twins / Marlins Under 7.5 (-105) (Caesars)

MIN at MIA – 6:40 PM EDT (Joe Ryan vs. Edward Cabrera)

I’ve been president of the Joe Ryan fan club for as long as I remember. The guy always seems to have remarkably good advanced stats, even though he gives up the long ball more than some people realize. That said, Ryan has the stuff to dominate this Fish lineup for 6 or 7 innings Tuesday night in Miami.

Edward Cabrera isn’t a household name, but he’s slowly coming into his own as an MLB starter. I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far this season from the young righty, and I have him rated as the 83rd best starter in baseball. Just for reference, the average MLB pitcher ranks 92nd in my ratings, so Cabrera is slightly above average.

Miami’s bullpen is scarier than any Nightmare on Elm Street movie, but I love what I’ve seen from Minnesota’s relievers. The Twins pen ranks 3rd in K minus BB rate, so look for them to slam the door after a solid outing from Ryan. This game has 4-2 written all over it.

Other Trends to Consider

• The Under is 43-37 this season in Twins games.
• The Under is 23-18 in Marlins home games this season.
• The Under is 24-18 in Twins road games this year.