MLB Is Three Weeks In and Three Divisions Already Have Surprising Leaders — the Futures Market Hasn’t Caught Up

Three weeks into the 2026 MLB season and the standings already look nothing like the preseason projections. The Pittsburgh Pirates lead the NL Central at 10-6. The Tampa Bay Rays are near the top of the AL East. The Texas Rangers are leading the AL West. None of these teams were expected to be in these positions, and the futures market — which was largely written around the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners — has not fully recalibrated. That disconnect is where the betting value lives, if it exists at all.

Three Divisions, Three Surprises

Start with Pittsburgh. The Pirates enter Wednesday at 10-6, sitting atop the NL Central with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. The market opened the season with the Pirates at anywhere from +5500 to +6600 to win the World Series — and those numbers have not moved dramatically despite the hot start. The Dodgers remain a dominant favorite at roughly +200 across most books, with the Pirates hovering somewhere between +4500 and +6600 depending on the outlet. BetMGM noted the Pirates as one of their largest liability teams before the season, meaning a lot of early ticket money came in on Pittsburgh at long odds. The sportsbooks are not sweating it yet, but they are watching.

In the AL East, Tampa Bay sits at 8-7 — ahead of schedule relative to preseason projections that had the Yankees as the division’s presumptive favorite. The Yankees opened the season at 9-7 and hold the same .563 clip as Baltimore, making the division more compressed than expected at the top. The Rays opened the year at +7000 to +8000 to win the World Series. Their run differential is negative at -10, which suggests some regression luck has been working in their favor, but they have been winning games and that matters early in a 162-game season.

Out west, Texas is tied atop the AL West at 9-7. The Rangers were a dark-horse pick by some prognosticators entering the year — BetMGM’s trading team specifically cited Texas as a team worth watching, noting a pitching staff anchored by Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and MacKenzie Gore that could put them in contention if the offense found its footing. The Rangers opened at around +4000 and have moved to +2200 in some spots, suggesting the market is starting to notice.

Value or Regression Trap?

The honest answer varies by team. The Pirates are the most legitimate question mark. Pittsburgh has legitimate organizational depth and some young players who are genuinely performing, but a 10-6 record after three weeks carries a wide confidence interval. Early-season baseball results are notoriously noisy, and the NL Central — home to the Cubs, Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals — will get stronger as rosters get healthy and pitchers stretch out.

The Rays are a different story. Tampa’s -10 run differential at 8-7 is a yellow flag. Teams that outperform their run differential early tend to regress as the schedule extends, and the AL East is a division where you need sustained excellence to hold ground against New York and Baltimore. The +7000 World Series price reflects the market’s skepticism, and that skepticism is probably right.

Texas is the most compelling futures play of the three. The Rangers have the pitching infrastructure to sustain this start — deGrom’s health is always a caveat, but if he stays on the mound, this rotation can compete with anyone. At +2200, there is still meaningful value if you believe in the pitching-driven model. The offense was the question mark entering the year, and early results suggest it may be rounding into form.

The Dodgers Are Still the Dodgers

None of this changes the reality that Los Angeles remains the prohibitive favorite. The Dodgers are 12-4 and look exactly like what they are: a team with the deepest roster in baseball, the best player in the sport in Shohei Ohtani, and a front office that has added relentlessly. They are drawing 31.9% of World Series futures money at BetMGM, four times more than any other team. Betting against them is a tough proposition. But if you are looking for a futures play that still has upside, Texas at +2200 makes more structural sense than backing the Pirates or Rays based on three weeks of results.