Missouri vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick

Two 6-1 teams and one electric SEC atmosphere. This is one of the biggest games of the day, with a spot in the conference title conversation possibly on the line. Missouri heads to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt in what might be the most underrated game of the week, but we absolutely love it.

Both teams bring high-powered offenses and dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks, and with ESPN’s College GameDay in town, the stakes don’t get much higher than this.

This is much more than just a battle of records — this is a clash of two top-15 teams with something to prove as we get closer to the playoffs. Missouri, ranked No. 15, is coming off a wild 23-17 2OT win at Auburn. Vanderbilt, now ranked No. 10 for the first time since 1947, just beat LSU 31-24 in a game that sent a clear message to the rest of the SEC — they’re not just bowl-bound, instead, they’re aiming higher.

Game Details and Current Betting Lines

This game is going to be rowdy. Vanderbilt opened as a slight favorite at -2.5 on the spread, with the total set at 52.5 points. The moneyline favors the Commodores at -140, while Missouri comes in at +115 as the underdog. It’s close, and it feels like it should be.

Despite the spread, Mizzou has had the upper hand historically in this matchup. The Tigers have won 5 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10, including a double OT thriller last season. But this time, the teams are looking drastically different.

Offensive Firepower on Both Sides

Let’s not sugarcoat it — this game is absolutely loaded with offensive talent.

Vanderbilt’s quarterback Diego Pavia is putting together a serious season as he’s thrown for 1,569 yards, 15 TDs, and just 4 picks, while completing 70%+ of his passes. And he’s just as dangerous on the ground, too, racking up 438 rushing yards and 4 more scores. His dual-threat component is a big reason Vandy is looking as good as they are. Vanderbilt is scoring 41.4 PPG, 8th-best in the country, and averaging nearly 458 yards per game.

Missouri’s answer is Beau Pribula, who’s right there with him at 1,617 passing yards, 11 TDs, and a solid 149-for-213 completion rate. But the engine of this Missouri offense is undoubtedly Ahmad Hardy. The junior back is 3rd in the nation with 840 rushing yards and has scored 11 TDs. He’s topped 100 yards in 11 of his last 14 games, and against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 19th nationally but has shown a few cracks, he could feast if it’s on his game.

Missouri averages 244.9 rushing YPG, one of the best in the country. They control the clock well, where they’re 6th in time of possession, convert third downs at a 54% rate, and rarely beat themselves. It’s a disciplined team that knows how to beat solid opponents.

But don’t sleep on Vandy’s balance. Senior TE Eli Stowers has been a steady weapon with 355 receiving yards and 2 TDs, and their offense has been explosive in recent wins — dropping 55 on Utah State and 70 on Georgia State.

Why Missouri Has the Edge

Yes, Vanderbilt is home, and yes, they’ve got momentum. But Missouri has the more complete team, especially on defense, and that’s what this game might come down to.

The Tigers allow just 16.7 PPG, 8th-best in the country. They’ve been especially strong against the pass, giving up only 159 yards per game, which ranks them among the top 10 nationally. That’s important because Pavia thrives off big plays through the air. Missouri also gives up just 83.9 rushing yards per game, and they’ve only allowed 4 rushing TDs all season.

Missouri’s defense is built to bend but not break, and on top of that, they’ve done it against better teams than Vandy. They held Auburn to 17 in double OT and nearly knocked off Alabama. Though, in their defense, the only loss for both of these teams comes at the hands of the Crimson Tide. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 57th in scoring and is allowing over 315 YPG, including 223 through the air. That leaves them vulnerable to Pribula’s arm and Hardy’s legs.

Missouri’s biggest challenge will be keeping up the pace early. Vanderbilt tends to start fast, especially at home. But if Missouri can force a few early 3-and-outs, or a turnover and lean on Hardy to control the tempo, they’re built to wear the Commodores down.

The trends also point toward the Tigers to steal this one. Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten Missouri in 5 years, and Missouri has won its last 2 road games. Their defense has kept every game close, and that’s a big reason they’re 6-1.

Prediction and Best Bet

There’s no other way around it — this one is going to be tight. We’re expecting scoring on both sides, but Missouri’s defense should hold up just a bit better in the big moments. Hardy gives them a consistent ground game that can keep Pavia off the field, and that might be all they need to take the win.

• Prediction: Missouri 27, Vanderbilt 24
• Best Bet: Missouri Tigers on the moneyline at +115

Forget the points because, as we said, this is going to be tight. Take the plus money on Missouri to win outright. Their defense gives them an undeniable edge, and Hardy is the best offensive player in this game.