The Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams are kicking off tonight in the NFC Wild Card matchup for Monday Night Football and there is plenty on the line for both teams. The Vikings (5th seed) are coming off a tough Week 18 loss to Detroit and hope to find their groove again after missing the NFC’s top seed. The Rams (4th seed), on the other hand, fell to Seattle but have the weapons to compete in this high-stakes game.
| Money Line | Point Spread | Total Points | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -145 | -2.5 -110 | O 48 -110 |
| Rams | +120 | +2.5 -110 | U 48 -110 |
The Vikings are coming into this game as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under set at 48 points. Minnesota’s offense, led by QB Sam Darnold and star wideout Justin Jefferson, ranks among the league’s best in passing yards. These 2 are simply unstoppable. They’ll go up against a Rams defense that has struggled here and there, especially in the secondary.
The Rams, on the other hand, rely heavily on the Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams connection. While their offense has unquestionably shown some promise, Minnesota’s solid rushing defense could quickly become a problem for their ground game.
Minnesota’s offense is one of the most balanced units in the NFL and easily the dominant one heading into this game.
Sam Darnold is having a career year, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 TDs. That’s around 254 yards per game. Considering his QBR throughout his career has been in the 70s and 80s and this year is a whopping 102.5, it really goes to show that he’s stepping up.
Darnold’s chemistry with Justin Jefferson is undeniable. The star receiver leads the league with 1,533 receiving yards and 10 TDs on the season.
The Vikings also have the 5th-ranked defense in points allowed per game, holding opponents to just 19.5.
The defense is particularly strong against the run which ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game at just 93.41. If the Vikings can contain Kyren Williams, which of course is still a tall order, they’ll force Stafford to carry the load. This will only increase the chances of turnovers. Minnesota also leads the NFL in interceptions with 24, a huge stat that could swing the game in their favor.
The Rams’ hopes rest on Matthew Stafford. He has quietly had a solid season with 3,762 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, which is not his best, but it’s definitely nothing to scoff at either.
The connection between Stafford and rookie standout Puka Nacua has been a big contributor toward their success this season as Nacua has racked up 990 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns.
Kyren Williams will also be critical in tonight’s matchup. His 1,299 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns simply highlight his ability to take over games. However, with Minnesota’s top-tier rushing defense, the Rams may need to look for creative ways to get Williams involved, such as screen passes or misdirection plays. Even with those plays, we’re not sure creativity is enough to overcome Minnesota’s defense.
On defense, Los Angeles needs to put constant pressure on Sam Darnold. While Darnold has been uncharacteristically efficient this year, the Rams’ pass rush, led by Aaron Donald, will need to bring their best game to disrupt Minnesota’s offensive rhythm.
Both teams bring their own unique strengths and weaknesses to this game. However the Vikings have the edge thanks to their balanced offense and highly-opportunistic defense.
Sam Darnold has been one of the most reliable QBs this season, and with Justin Jefferson on the field, the Vikings should have no trouble moving the ball with big chunk plays against a shaky Rams secondary.
Defensively, Minnesota’s ability to stop the run should force the Rams to lean on Matthew Stafford. This will be risky given the Vikings’ league-leading interception total. Combine this with Minnesota’s road success (they’ve been 6-2 away from home), and the Vikings are in a good position to win and cover the -2.5 spread.
Our best bet is Minnesota -2.5. That’s a slim margin and we’re thinking that the Vikings will have no problem overcoming just 2.5 points. Their strengths on both sides of the ball make them the clear pick in this NFC Wild Card showdown.
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