Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet
The Milwaukee Brewers are heading to Los Angeles tonight, down 0–2 in the NLCS, and they’re desperate to avoid a sweep as they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have looked absolutely unstoppable behind 2 dominant starting pitching performances on the road and are now heavy favorites to move just one step closer to another World Series berth.
Game Details and Betting Odds
The Dodgers come into Game 3 as -220 favorites on the moneyline, while the Brewers sit around +180 to pull the upset. The run line has Los Angeles -1.5 at +105, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Bookmakers clearly favor another strong outing from the Dodgers’ rotation, which has completely shut down Milwaukee’s bats through both games.
Los Angeles is back home at Dodger Stadium, where they went 53–28 during the regular season, and they’ve won 7 of 8 games so far this postseason. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has lost 9 straight road playoff games since 2018 and hasn’t found much life at the plate in this series. As one of the hottest teams in the regular season, this is looking like the end of the road for the Brew Crew.
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | +1.5 −131 |
O 7.5 −120 |
+161 |
| Dodgers | −1.5 +107 |
U 7.5 −102 |
−199 |
Dodgers — Pitching Staff Carrying the Load
The Dodgers’ game plan this postseason has been simple — let the starting pitching take over and do their job. It’s worked to nearly perfection. In Milwaukee, Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivered back-to-back gems, allowing a combined one run on just 4 hits over 17 innings.
Snell struck out 10 batters over 8 scoreless innings in Game 1, and Yamamoto followed it up with the first Dodgers complete game in the postseason since 2004. His outing was a 3-hit shutout that silenced the Brewers’ lineup.
Now, Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for Game 3, and let’s keep in mind that the RHP has been outstanding this postseason, allowing only 2 runs in his last 13 innings while striking out 15. He was sharp in his last start, tossing 6 scoreless innings to eliminate the Phillies in the NLDS. Glasnow’s velocity has been absolutely electric, and his command has been spot-on.
Even though Shohei Ohtani has been quiet offensively as he’s just 2-for-25 this postseason, the rest of the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t skipped a beat. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith have stepped up with timely hits, while Max Muncy has rediscovered his power stroke. Manager Dave Roberts hasn’t had to rely much on his bullpen, which is a rare but welcome luxury in October, thanks to long outings from his starters.
The Dodgers’ pitching has posted a 1.32 ERA in the playoffs, and the starters have thrown 17 of 18 possible innings in this series. Roberts said after Game 2 that the plan is to “ride the rotation” as long as it stays efficient, and given how dominant Snell and Yamamoto have been, Glasnow should have every opportunity to go deep into the game again.
Brewers — Bats Need to Wake Up
This is easier said than done, but the Brewers’ offense simply hasn’t shown up. Through the first 2 games of the NLCS, they’ve managed to put together just 6 hits and 2 runs on the board. Their team batting average has fallen to .206 this postseason, and their lack of power — only 8 HRs in 7 playoff games — has made it difficult to keep up with Los Angeles, which is on cruise control.
Manager Pat Murphy hasn’t named a starter yet, but Jose Quintana is looking like the likely option, possibly following an opener. Quintana posted a 3.49 ERA during the regular season and threw well in limited postseason innings, but the Dodgers’ right-handed-heavy lineup poses a real problem for him.
Defensively, Milwaukee hasn’t been all that terrible, but its pitching staff hasn’t been able to neutralize the Dodgers’ key bats. They’ve allowed early runs in both games, forcing them to play from behind the entire series. This is never an easy task against a team that controls tempo as well as Los Angeles.
Murphy said before Game 3 that his club needs to “just show good baseball and win one game at a time,” but that will require a complete turnaround at the plate. Fortunately for the Brewers, they have the players who can do it if they can figure it out. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames have combined for just one hit in the series, and the Brewers are hitting only .152 with RISP this postseason.
If they want to avoid falling behind 3–0, they’ll need their bats to kick in high gear, and against Glasnow, that’s a tall order.
Key Matchups and Factors
The Brewers’ biggest problem in this series is their approach against power pitching. Los Angeles has pounded the strike zone with upper-90s fastballs and hard sliders, and Milwaukee’s lineup simply hasn’t adjusted. Glasnow’s ability to throw first-pitch strikes, which he’s at a 67% rate this postseason, could once again put hitters on the defensive, and that’s not a good place to be.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense doesn’t need to do much more than they’ve been doing. If they can score early, it’s game over. The Brewers’ bullpen is absolutely taxed, and their rotation unsettled. Add in a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in OBP this postseason, and you’ve got another tough night ahead for Milwaukee pitching.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Brewers are simply overmatched right now, and we don’t see a future where they crawl their way out of this. The Dodgers have everything going for them, including dominant starters, an efficient offense, and the best closer in the playoffs, Evan Phillips. With Glasnow on the mound and the crowd behind them, it’s hard to see Milwaukee stealing this one on the road.
We expect Glasnow to work 6 or 7 strong innings while the Dodgers’ bats chip away at Milwaukee’s left-handers. If Ohtani breaks out of his slump, this could get ugly fast, and what just became a difficult task for the Brewers will become an impossible task.
- NLCS Game 3 Prediction: Dodgers 4, Brewers 1
- Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 at +105
The combination of Glasnow’s form and Milwaukee’s cold bats makes this the best value play on the board. The Dodgers have covered in 5 of their last 7 postseason wins, and the Brewers’ road woes should continue. We’re predicting that the series goes to 3-0 in favor of the Dodgers.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
