Michigan (15) vs Oklahoma (18) Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet for Saturday Night in Norman

Michigan heads into Norman Saturday night with an unbeaten record and a fresh face under center, but they’ll be tested by a desperate and talented, unbeaten Oklahoma team that’s already looking at a dangerous minefield of an SEC schedule ahead. This is a prove-it game for both teams, and the stakes are massive.

It’s a great weekend for some college football, but this is easily the best game of the day.

Game Info and Latest Odds

This primetime matchup kicks off tomorrow night at 7:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK. It will be televised nationally on ABC, with all eyes looking to see who can pull it off.

Oklahoma is currently a 4.5-point favorite at -115, while Michigan is the underdog at +4.5 at -105. The over/under is set at 44.5, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -110. On the moneyline, Oklahoma sits at -205, and Michigan is +170 to win outright.

The bookmakers are obviously giving some credit for the home-field advantage and Mateer’s air game, but will it be enough to stop a pumped-up Wolverine squad?

What We Know About Michigan

True freshman Bryce Underwood made his much-hyped debut last week, and he undoubtedly looked sharp. He completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown, and while that would be considered pedestrian for many top-tier QBs, for a Michigan program that had only two 200-yard passing games all last season, it’s a big step in the right direction.

But the story for Week 1 wasn’t Underwood — it was the run game. Justice Haynes, the Alabama transfer, ran wild with 159 yards and 3 TDs, showing exactly why Michigan leaned on him to take pressure off their young quarterback. The problem is that Michigan leaned on the ground game so heavily that its run-pass efficiency ratio was 3:1. That may work against New Mexico, but it won’t against Oklahoma.

The Wolverines have been excellent defensively under Jim Harbaugh’s system in recent years, and the new regime seems to be sticking with the identity he created. The defense allowed just 6.8 yards per reception last week and picked off 3 passes. But let’s be real. That was New Mexico, and this week, they’ll face a different animal.

Why Oklahoma is Built for This Game

It all starts with urgency. Oklahoma’s upcoming schedule includes Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss. That’s a tall order for any team. If Brent Venables wants to keep Playoff hopes alive, this is a must-win at home to set the tone for the next few weeks.

QB John Mateer is expected to start again, and the offense should thrive against a Michigan defense that, surprisingly, struggled last week in defending designed passing plays. New Mexico, a team not exactly known for high-flying offense, succeeded on 43% of its designed dropbacks. That’s not just a blip — that’s a red flag they have to address.

Oklahoma’s passing game is built to capitalize on exactly that. Through one game, they’ve averaged 13.1 yards per reception, and nearly 19% of their attempts have gone for 20+ yards. It’s a small sample size, but that ranks top-10 nationally. Leading that charge is Keontez Lewis, who had 119 yards with 2 TDs. Meanwhile, Michigan allowed chunk plays on just 4.2% of pass attempts last year, but early cracks are already showing.

Oklahoma’s defense has also looked elite through one game. They’ve allowed just 3.4 yards per completion, which is good for the 2nd-best in the country, and only 34 total passing yards. That should scare Michigan fans banking on Underwood taking a leap this early in his career. He’s good, but definitely inexperienced.

The Matchup That Could Decide It

Michigan’s bread and butter is undeniably the run game, and Haynes is clearly the focal point. But Oklahoma will sell out to stop the run, daring Underwood to beat them over the top. That’s a gamble Oklahoma can afford to take, especially with a pass defense that’s locked in early in the season.

Michigan was 1-4 last year when opponents rushed 30+ times — proof that when teams control the clock and pace, Michigan doesn’t respond all too well. Oklahoma’s depth and efficiency make them more than capable of doing that.

Prediction and Why Oklahoma is the Pick

We have no doubt that Bryce Underwood is going to be special. That much is clear. But this is too much, too soon with being on the road, in prime time, against a top-15 defense and a quarterback who can stretch the field against a secondary still figuring things out — that’s not the setup you want for a freshman QB trying to carry a team. On top of that, he wasn’t really even tested last week against New Mexico, given how much they leaned on the run. This week, either he has what it takes, or he still needs some work.

We expect Michigan to start hot, likely with a Haynes score early, but fade as the game wears on and Oklahoma’s offense starts to find rhythm in the second half. The Sooners are deeper, more explosive, and frankly, more motivated based on what they’re going to face over the next few weeks.

• Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Michigan 20
• Best Bet: Oklahoma -4.5 at -115

Michigan may hang around for a half, but Oklahoma’s balance and vertical passing attack will be too much over 4 quarters. The Sooners cover the number, and they do it without needing any late-game heroics to put a bow on it. The total is tight, but a lean toward the over 44.5 at -115 makes sense if you believe Michigan can put up at least 17 as Underwood tries to figure out his game.

If you want to add a little more spice to the game, take a look at Justice Haynes for an Anytime TD Score. If Michigan gets into the red zone, Haynes is going to be the one getting the call. He had 3 touchdowns last week and 16 carries. You can expect him to find paydirt again as he’s the most reliable one on the field for Michigan.