New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet

The New York Mets are in desperate need of a turnaround as they head into the series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park. New York has dropped 5 straight games and is slipping further away from postseason contention, though it’s still in the wild card hunt, while Philadelphia looks to stay hot and continue its grip on the NL East.

Game Details

The Mets enter at 76-70 and they’re sitting 2nd in the NL East now 10 games behind the division-leading Phillies, who are 86-60. Philadelphia is all but a lock for the division, and on top of that, they’re trending up, riding a 3-game win streak, while New York has completely lost its rhythm at the plate. In fact, the Mets have been outscored 30-11 in their last 5 games, which includes losing 3 straight to the Phillies in this series so far.

This matchup features two LHPs on the mound. David Peterson, who has a 9-5 and a 3.72 ERA, starts for the Mets, while the Phillies counter with Jesus Luzardo and his 13-6 record and 4.01 ERA. Both pitchers have had solid seasons overall, but recent form tells 2 very different stories.

Betting Odds

The Phillies are listed as -137 favorites on the moneyline, while the Mets come in as +113 underdogs. On the run line, Philadelphia is +144 at -1.5, with the Mets -176 at +1.5. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over priced at -105 and the under at -115.

Those odds feel right after seeing how Philly handled the Mets the last 3 days. Everything seems to be working in their favor for this series finale, but before we load up the bet slip, we’ll want to dig into the numbers a bit more.

Analysis

The Mets’ bats have gone cold at the worst possible time. They’ve managed just 4 runs in 3 games against the Phillies this week. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto are the heart of New York’s offense, where they’re combining for 72 home runs and 209 RBI this season, but both have been quiet against Philadelphia’s pitching staff. Without their big names producing runs, New York’s supporting cast hasn’t been able to keep up to keep them afloat.

Philadelphia, by contrast, is getting contributions from all over the lineup. Kyle Schwarber has already blasted 50 homers and driven in 123 runs, while Trea Turner has been a consistent table-setter with a .305 AVG and .358 OBP. Add in some production from Bryce Harper, who had a HR in last night’s game, and it’s easy to see why the Phillies rank top-10 in both runs scored and batting average.

On the pitching side, Peterson’s season ERA of 3.72 looks fine on paper, but he’s been shaky of late. In his last 2 starts, he’s given up 11 runs in 11 innings, with command issues leading to trouble despite still piling up the Ks. Luzardo has been steadier, allowing just 2 earned runs across 6 innings in his most recent start. He has given up 14 dingers on the year, but he balances that with strong strikeout numbers and a WHIP under 1.30.

The bullpen comparison, however, favors the Mets. Sure, lately the Phillies’ relievers have been better at keeping games under control, but overall, the Mets have a better ERA from the pen with a 4.10 compared to the Phillies’ 4.31. That’s not a huge difference, and neither is keeping runners off the bags.

Recent trends make the difference clearer. The Mets are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, while the Phillies are 7-3 in that same stretch. New York has not only been losing, but losing badly on top of that — their last 2 games, they were beaten by 6 runs and 8 runs. Philadelphia’s offense has shown the ability to put games away early, as seen in their 11-3 blowout win last night.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Mets have shown they can be competitive when Alonso and Soto deliver, but this lineup has gone ice cold. Facing Luzardo and a red-hot Phillies team, it’s tough to see where the Mets find enough runs to keep pace. Peterson’s recent struggles only make things harder for New York, especially against a lineup that absolutely punishes mistakes.

We’d love to see the Mets crawl out of this hole they’ve dug, but in reality, the Phillies are playing their best baseball at the right time, and at home, they should control this matchup again.

• Mets vs Phillies Prediction: Phillies 6, Mets 3
• Best Bet: Phillies moneyline at -137

This bet offers good value given the current form of both teams. For bettors seeking more upside, the Phillies on the run line -1.5 at +144 is worth a look, as New York’s offense has been too unreliable to expect a close game.

The over/under at 8.5 is a bit trickier, but with the Mets slumping and Peterson prone to mistakes, the safer side leans toward the over. After all, 2 of the 3 games so far went over this number by a long shot.