Mariners vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet for July 10

The Seattle Mariners are looking to bounce back after getting dominated by the New York Yankees 10-3 in the series opener yesterday. That game marked the 1st meeting between the 2 clubs this season, and the Yankees now hold a 1-0 edge. With both teams battling for playoff positioning as we approach the ASG break — Seattle sitting 2nd in the AL West at 48-43 and New York in 2nd place in the AL East at 50-41 — tonight’s matchup at Yankee Stadium has plenty of meaning despite being early in the season. 

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

Logan Evans gets the nod for the Mariners. The RHP owns a 3-2 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP through 45.2 innings of work. He’s not what we’d call a strikeout machine, with just 33 punchouts so far, but he’s done a solid job limiting damage where it counts as he’s allowed only 7 home runs across his starts. His control has been good, and when he gets ground balls, he tends to keep his pitch count low and games competitive. He’s not a Cy Young candidate, but he’s doing his part to keep the M’s competitive.

On the other side, Cam Schlittler will make his Major League debut for the Yankees. That always brings a bit of unpredictability as there are so many factors and plenty of unknowns. Schlittler reportedly has solid command and a decent fastball-slider combo, but facing major league hitters — especially a group that includes Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, and Randy Arozarena — is an entirely different level of pressure. Yankee Stadium in primetime isn’t exactly a soft landing spot for a 24-year-old rookie.

Odds and Betting Lines

The Yankees are listed as -164 favorites on the moneyline, while the Mariners come in as +134 underdogs. Given the pitching matchup, that feels a bit lopsided, but nonetheless, that could be good for us. The run line is set at Yankees -1.5 at +123 and Mariners +1.5 at -150. The total for the game sits at 9.5 runs, with both the over and under-priced at -110.

The bookmakers are clearly banking on New York’s bats staying hot and giving Schlittler enough run support to handle Seattle’s heavy-handed lineup. But with recent trends and pitching form factored in, we feel like there’s value to be found on the Seattle side.

Analysis and Best Prediction

Yes, the Yankees just rolled Seattle by 7 runs and that’s hard to overlook — but that’s not the whole story. In their last 10 games, New York is just 3-7. Over that stretch of games, their pitching staff has been shelled for a 7.39 ERA, and they’ve been outscored by 11 runs. Even with Aaron Judge leading the league at the plate with a .360 average, 34 home runs, and 75 RBI, the rest of the lineup has been hit-or-miss. The bullpen has been inconsistent as well, and their rotation — outside of a few standouts — has struggled to eat innings which only taxes the bullpen even more.

Compare that to the Mariners, who are 6-4 in their last 10 and have posted a dominant 2.44 ERA in that stretch. They’ve allowed just 24 runs total in those 10 games and have held teams to fewer than 4 runs in 8 of them. That kind of pitching travels well, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Yankee Stadium.

Cal Raleigh leads the Mariners — and the MLB — with 36 home runs and 76 RBI, while Randy Arozarena has been on fire lately with 6 homers and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. J.P. Crawford is also quietly putting together a decent season as he’s hitting .286 with a .385 OBP. These are the kinds of hitters who can punish a rookie pitcher if he’s not hitting his spots. They’ll undoubtedly take advantage of any jitters he has being under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium.

Defensively and statistically, Seattle may be slightly behind New York in team average (.247 to .256) and SLG with .406 to .455, but the Mariners are better at avoiding strikeouts and have a clear edge in recent pitching performance. That matters in a big way, especially when trying to neutralize a lineup built around the long ball. New York averages 1.6 HRs per game, best in the majors, but Seattle is 19-8 when they don’t allow a dinger. That’s a surprisingly telling stat, especially with a ground-ball pitcher like Logan Evans on the mound.

Then, of course, there’s the stadium factor. Yankee Stadium has averaged just 8.9 total runs per game this season and is trending heavily toward the under, with a 16-28 O/U record in 2025. Neither team has been dominant against the spread either with Seattle at 38-53 ATS, and New York at 42-49. What you’re getting here is 2 fairly even teams in different forms, with one throwing a rookie starter and we simply can’t overlook that.

Even though New York has the power edge, Seattle’s recent pitching and timely hitting tell us that they’re more equipped to take advantage of this matchup, they’ve also shown they can win tight games — Evans’ starts tend to be low-scoring and controlled. If he keeps the ball in the park and the Mariners scratch across early runs, they’re in a strong spot to cash as a road underdog.

• Mariners vs Yankees Prediction: Mariners 4, Yankees 3
• Best Bet: Seattle Mariners moneyline at +134

The Yankees could take the 2nd game of the series if Schlittler hits the ground running. However, there are too many unknown variables with him, and the Mariners at +134 is just too good to pass up with a game like this. We’re taking the M’s by at least a run, but we’ll hold off on any run line bets for tonight’s matchup as this could be a tighter game than expected.