Mariners vs Rays Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Seattle Mariners, sitting at 73-65, take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 68-69 in Game 2 of a 3-game set tonight. This matchup has more at stake than it might seem. Seattle is fighting to stay relevant in the AL West playoff chase, while Tampa Bay is still trying to claw its way back into Wild Card contention. The season is not over yet, and with just under 4 weeks left, anything can happen.

After the Rays demolished the Mariners 10-2 in Game 1, momentum is clearly on Tampa’s side for tonight’s showdown.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 PM ET at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. This is a park that’s leaned slightly pitcher-friendly this season. Tampa is one of the hottest home teams in baseball right now, having won 7 of their last 9 games, and their performance yesterday only solidified that reputation.

The Mariners will start Bryan Woo, who has quietly put together a fairly decent season with a 12-7 record, 2.95 ERA, and 164 Ks across 162.2 innings. He’s kept the walks down and opponents off balance with a good mix, which is why he’s holding an elite 0.95 WHIP. He’s been one of Seattle’s most dependable arms in the second half as he’s been putting up at least 6 innings a game, sometimes 7.

Tampa counters with Drew Rasmussen on the bump, who’s arguably been even better. The RHP is 10-5 with a 2.64 ERA and a stellar 0.98 WHIP. In 129.2 innings of work, he’s struck out 113 and allowed just 28 free passes. Rasmussen’s calm presence and consistency have helped stabilize the Rays’ rotation, especially at home.

This sets up a pretty even pitching duel, but that doesn’t mean the bats won’t have their say.

Betting Odds and Where the Market Stands

As for the odds, the Seattle Mariners are slight road favorites at -115 on the moneyline, while the Tampa Bay Rays are -105. That’s just about as even as you can get. It’s close, and the market and bookmakers clearly respect both pitchers. On the run line, Seattle -1.5 is a juicy +142 payout, while Tampa +1.5 is the safer play at -174.

The total is set at 8 runs, with slight juice to the under at -119, and the over priced at -102.

That doesn’t surprise us one bit. George M. Steinbrenner Field has averaged just 8.9 runs per game, and the under is 29-35-4 on the season at this venue. With both SPs being solid and both teams hitting cold stretches at the plate, this could easily turn into a low-scoring game where both starters go deep into the game..

Matchup Analysis and Trends

Tampa Bay comes into this one having won 4 of their 5 and 7 of their last 9, including a dominant 10-2 win over these same Mariners yesterday afternoon. Seattle, on the other hand, has only won 2 of their last 5, which includes losing the series to Cleveland.

The Rays are now 40-45 in night games and showing signs of life after a sluggish summer. They’re led offensively by none other than Junior Caminero, who’s mashed 39 HRs and driven in 96 runs while batting a respectable .258 AVG. He’s been the heart of Tampa’s lineup. Now thrown in Yandy Diaz, who adds some balance with a .286 AVG and .471 SLG.

Seattle relies heavily on Cal Raleigh, who has launched a team and MLB-leading 50 HRs and added 107 RBIs. That’s elite production, but outside of Julio Rodriguez, who has a .264 AVG and .459 SLG, the Mariners haven’t gotten enough from the rest of the lineup. As a team, they’re batting just .242, which is good for 21st in the MLB.

From a team stats perspective, the Mariners do have more home run pop as they’re 3rd in MLB with 1.4 HR/game and sit in the top 5 in stolen bases. But there’s also a downside, as they also strike out more and hit worse at night, as they’re 43-45 in night games. Tampa is more balanced across the board and boasts a better OBA of .237 and a team ERA of 3.88.

Key Factors

Before loading up our bet slip for this game, there are a few big concerns we’ll keep our eye on.

• Rays are red-hot at home, where they’ve been much more comfortable than on the road.
• Rasmussen has allowed just 13 HR all year and is particularly great at keeping hitters off balance the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. That says a lot about an SP.
• Seattle’s inconsistency — especially with RISP — makes them a shaky road favorite.
• The under has been hitting frequently at this park, and both pitchers match up well with the opposing lineup.

The Rays may not be a power-hitting team as they’re just 15th in HRs, but they’re better at stringing together hits, ranking 9th in batting average at .251, compared to Seattle’s .242. That’s a big deal when facing a good pitcher who can go deep into games. Teams have to find ways to manufacture runs.

Rasmussen has also been incredibly tough at home. His WHIP and command tell us he won’t give up many free passes, and if Tampa keeps the ball in the yard, they can grind out another win here.

Prediction and Final Score

Seattle may have a slightly better arm in Bryan Woo, and we respect that, but the Rays are playing better baseball right now. They’re getting production from up and down the lineup and just dismantled the Mariners in Game 1. This feels like another spot where the home team leans on pitching, timely hitting, and a little momentum to pull out a close win, as we don’t expect to see another blowout like yesterday.

• Mariners vs Rays Prediction: Rays 4, Mariners 2
• Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at -105

The smart money is on Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -105. You’re getting value on the hotter team at home with a solid starter, facing a Mariners squad that’s shown cracks when under pressure. This number has some decent value as well, especially with Rasmussen pitching and the team trending upward. Tampa’s balance, home form, and ability to capitalize on mistakes give them the edge here.

If you’re looking for a little bit more for your bets tonight, you might even want to check out Junior Caminero OVER 1.5 total bases for an MLB player prop bet. He’s a key cog in this offense and should get chances against Woo, who’s allowed 23 homers this season. He sits in the 4 spot, so he should get plenty of opportunities to nail this prop.