Lightning vs Flyers Prediction — Can Philly Stop Tampa’s Streak?

The Tampa Bay Lightning are heading up to Philadelphia with an insane 9-game win streak and no signs of slowing down. Tonight, they’ll face a Flyers team trying to shake off a blowout loss to these same Lightning just 2 days ago and a loss before that back in November. With both teams sitting near the top of their divisions, this one’s got playoff vibes even in January. 

The Lightning look good and obviously have the Flyers’ number, but can they pull off the season series sweep?

Game Details and Recent Form

This is the 3rd and final meeting between these 2 teams this season. The last one ended in a statement as Tampa Bay torched the Flyers 7-2 on the road, a game where Nikita Kucherov scored a pair and showed why he’s near the top of the league in just about every offensive stat that matters.

Tampa Bay, currently sitting at 27-13-3, comes in scorching hot, winning 9 straight and outscoring opponents 46-26 in that stretch. They’ve been lethal on the road as well where they’re 15-4-3.

Philadelphia at 22-13-8, meanwhile, has dropped 2 straight and looked simply overmatched in the previous meeting. Despite sitting in a good spot in the Metro Division, they’ve been fairly shaky lately, especially at home where they’re 12-6-5. A big part of their standing in the division was some early-season success.

In their last 10 games, the Flyers have gone 5-3-2, giving up 3 goals per game while averaging 3.3. Not bad, but clearly not enough when going up against a red-hot offense like Tampa’s, which has averaged a whopping 4.6 GF/G during its 9-1-0 stretch.

Odds and Key Stats

The Lightning are undoubtedly favored again, opening around -155 on the moneyline, with the Flyers listed at +130. The total is set at 6.5, with the over at plus money.

On paper, this isn’t a really a close matchup and we expected the bookmakers to have a bigger spread on them.

• Tampa Bay ranks 4th in goals scored with 152, 2nd in goals against with 113, and 3rd in assists with 266.
• Philly ranks just 23rd in goals scored and 21st in assists, though their defense has been solid, giving up only 124 goals which is good for 7th best in the NHL.

Tampa holds the edge in both PP and PK. The Lightning convert 19.7% of their power plays which is around the middle of the pack, while Philly lags behind at 15.6% which is nearly last in the NHL. On the PK unit, both are decent as Tampa again leads at 83.1% (6th overall) vs. 80.8% (11th overall).

Interestingly enough, both teams take a lot of penalties, but Tampa gets whistled the most, leading the league in PIM with 573. If the Flyers had even a remotely dangerous power play, this would be a bigger issue — but they don’t so that’s not a big factor.

In the net, Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the way for the Bolts with an 18-7-2 record and a 2.33 GAA. Those are Vicenza Trophy candidate numbers. Philly’s Dan Vladar has been solid as well with his 16-6-4 and 2.55 GAA, but he’ll need to be spectacular to slow down a Lightning team averaging 3.53 GPG, 4th best in the NHL.

Analysis — Why Tampa Bay Has the Edge

If the previous matchups and streak doesn’t convince you, we’re not sure what will. This game comes down to firepower, recent form, and matchups — and Tampa Bay has all 3 leaning their way.

The Kucherov-Hagel combo has been nothing less than lethal. Kucherov leads the NHL with 65 points spanning 22 goals and 43 helpers and has caught fire with 9 goals and 14 assists in his last 10 games. Brandon Hagel has chipped in with 21 goals and 18 assists, making them one of the best 1-2 punches in the league right now — even better than the McDavid/Draisaitl combo in Edmonton.

Though they’re good, the Flyers simply don’t have the depth to match. Trevor Zegras leads them with 41 points, and while Travis Konecny has 14 goals and Owen Tippett has chipped in 5 in his last 10, their production is sporadic. Philly’s offense doesn’t have the consistency to keep up in a game that’s likely to open up quickly.

Another major factor we think will play a big role is Tampa’s confidence and chemistry. During this 9-game win streak, they’ve handled teams with similar or better records than Philly — including Colorado, San Jose, and even these Flyers. To put that in perspective, the Avs have 4 regulation losses and that was one of them.

Defensively, Tampa has been quietly dominant as well as they allow just 2.63 GAA, 6th best in the league. And when the offense is this hot, that’s more than enough to get the job done.

The Flyers will need a clean, disciplined game and standout goaltending to hang around and even make this competitive. But they haven’t shown either in recent matchups against elite opponents.

Prediction — Lightning Move Their Streak to 10 Games

Tampa Bay is simply playing too well to bet against at the moment. They’ve crushed the Flyers in both prior matchups and show no signs of slowing down for anyone. With their offense clicking and Vasilevskiy in between the pipes, we expect another decisive win for the Bolts.

• Prediction: Lightning 5, Flyers 2
• Best Bet: Lightning -1.5 at +140

The Lightning have covered the puck line in 7 of their last 9 and they just beat Philly by 5 goals, and there’s no reason to think this meeting will be any closer. At plus money, the value is strong so lay the points. 

If you’re looking for a player prop to jump on Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points is a great look — he’s currently on an 8 game 2+ point streak and he nailed 4 points in the last meeting against the Flyers.