Justin Steele Is Out Indefinitely With a Flexor Strain — What the Cubs’ Latest Rotation Blow Means for Betting Chicago Games

It has been a miserable spring for the Chicago Cubs’ pitching staff. A rotation that opened the year with genuine World Series aspirations has been steadily dismantled by injuries, and the latest setback — Justin Steele’s flexor strain — has pushed the timeline for Chicago’s projected ace into the second half of the season at the earliest. For bettors with action on Cubs starting pitchers through May, the landscape just got meaningfully more complicated.

What Happened to Steele

Steele underwent UCL revision repair surgery on April 18, 2025, costing him most of that season. The Cubs placed him on the 60-day IL at the start of the 2026 season as he continued his recovery, with the expectation at the time that he could return sometime in the first half. He was cleared for full throwing by Dr. Keith Meister on March 1, 2026, threw off a mound in January and faced live hitters in mid-March — all of which generated optimism that a late-May return was plausible.

That optimism is now gone. During a recent bullpen session, Steele felt discomfort that prompted a follow-up with Dr. Meister. The checkup revealed a flexor strain — an injury to the soft tissue in the forearm near the elbow. Steele has been shut down from all throwing until he is asymptomatic, and he will be re-evaluated in a month. Manager Craig Counsell confirmed to media on April 28 that Steele is no longer expected back before the All-Star break, which means Chicago should plan for a rotation without him through at least late July.

The flexor strain is a meaningful complication, but not necessarily a catastrophic one. Flexor strains in a pitcher recovering from UCL surgery can range from minor setbacks to indicators of recurring structural vulnerability. The key question is whether this setback is the kind that resolves with rest and a gradual ramp-up, or whether it signals something more concerning about the elbow’s long-term stability. A one-month reassessment window suggests the Cubs are hopeful it is the former.

The Broader Rotation Picture

Steele’s setback does not exist in isolation — it is the latest injury in a wave that has stripped the Cubs’ rotation down to the bone. The Opening Day rotation consisted of Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Edward Cabrera, and Jameson Taillon. None of that five are currently healthy and in the rotation together.

Horton, the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up, underwent Tommy John surgery on April 16 and is done for the 2026 season. Boyd, who earned the Opening Day start after a 14-8 All-Star season in 2025, was placed on the 15-day IL with a left biceps strain in early April, though he was expected back relatively soon. Jordan Wicks, another rotation depth piece, has been on the IL with elbow inflammation and was on a rehab assignment as of April 18.

The Cubs’ current working rotation consists of Imanaga, Cabrera, Taillon, Colin Rea (moved from the bullpen back into a starting role), and Javier Assad, who was called up from Triple-A Iowa. Cabrera has been the standout of the group, posting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts with 9 strikeouts across 11.2 innings. Imanaga carries a 4.50 ERA. Taillon, who entered 2026 having posted a 17.55 ERA in Spring Training, sits at the back of the rotation by default.

How to Approach Cubs Starters Through May

The practical betting reality for Cubs games through the end of May is that Chicago will be running one of the thinner starting rotations in the National League. Cabrera is the most trustworthy option in the group right now, but he is still building up volume after being acquired from Miami. Imanaga has the highest upside but has been inconsistent early. Rea and Assad are back-of-rotation arms elevated by necessity rather than performance.

Team totals and first-five-inning lines on Cubs starts deserve extra scrutiny through May given the rotation’s instability. Line movement on Cubs starters will also be worth tracking: when a team’s confirmed starter changes or a bullpen game emerges late in the week, the market tends to move quickly, and sharp action often follows the opener. Watch for any further injury news closely — with this many pitchers already compromised, a Cubs bullpen day or emergency spot start is a real possibility on any given turn through the rotation.

The Cubs’ offense is good enough that the team is not yet out of contention for anything, and the schedule through May includes stretches against manageable opponents. But until Boyd returns and the rotation stabilizes, Chicago games carry more variance than the line will always reflect. Bettors targeting Cubs team totals, first-five lines, and opposing batters’ strikeout props should account for a rotation that is running considerably shallower than it was projected to be when the season began.