Islanders vs Blackhawks Prediction — Can New York Snap Their Road Skid?
The New York Islanders head to Chicago tonight hoping to stop a 4-game road losing streak. Fortunately for them, they’ll face the Chicago Blackhawks, who are having a rough stretch of their own and sit last in the Central Division. Both teams come off tough losses, and while the Isles are still very much in the playoff race, the Hawks are just trying to stay afloat. There’s still plenty of season left, and this game might not be marquee on paper, but there’s betting value in what looks like a tight, low-scoring Tuesday night showdown.
Game Details and Betting Odds
Puck drop is set for 8:30 p.m. EST in Chicago. The Islanders opened around -142 on the moneyline and have moved to -148. The Blackhawks sit at +124, with the over/under at 5.5 goals.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Islanders | −1.5 +170 |
O 5.5 −125 |
−148 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +1.5 −205 |
U 5.5 +105 |
+124 |
The Isles are 21-14-4 overall, 9-7-2 on the road, and 2nd in the Metro Division, while the Blackhawks are 14-18-6 and have gone just 7-8-3 at home.
This is the first meeting of the season between these teams, and they’ll have one more in March.
Stats, Trends, and What to Watch
The Islanders are still hanging around in an incredibly stacked Metro race, but they’re coming off a rough 4-2 loss in Columbus, which made it 4 straight losses on the road. Still, they’ve been solid when they get to at least 3 goals, as they’re going 15-1-3 when they hit that mark. And lately, they’ve been locking it down defensively, giving up just 2.3 GAA over their last 10.
The Blackhawks, on the other hand, have dropped 8 of their last 10, which includes their home games, so they’re not exactly a solid team. Their defense has fallen apart as they’ve allowed 3.7 GAA over that stretch, and they were blown out 7-3 by Pittsburgh in their last game and have given up 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5.
One bright spot and saving grace for Chicago is Connor Bedard, who leads the team in all major scoring categories with 44 points spanning 19 goals and 25 helpers. He’s doing it all for a squad that ranks 26th in goals and assists. Bedard has 5 goals in his last 10, but the support around him is extremely thin. Andre Burakovsky and Tyler Bertuzzi have chipped in a bit here and there, but it hasn’t been enough to carry them to the wins they most desperately need.
Bo Horvat leads the way for the Isles with 20 goals and 12 assists, and Mathew Barzal has been piling up helpers with 19 assists, including some strong recent play. They’re at least showing a little more depth on their side of the ice.
Goaltending Breakdown
This matchup features two teams with very different goaltending outlooks, which could be the determining factor in the game.
Ilya Sorokin is expected in the crease for the Islanders, and he’s been steady all year with a .910 SV% and a 2.55 GAA. Sorokin has 12 wins and continues to be a backbone for New York, especially during tough road stretches. Of course, he can’t get goals on the board, and that seems to be their biggest problem lately.
Chicago will likely go with Spencer Knight, who has a 10-11-5 record, 2.65 GAA, and .910 SV%. While his numbers aren’t that terrible, the Blackhawks’ defensive issues put him under constant pressure.
The edge in net goes to Sorokin, especially given Chicago’s lack of offensive consistency beyond Bedard.
Special Teams, Discipline, and the Edges
This is a game where special teams could quietly decide this one.
The Islanders have an absolutely terrible power play unit, where they sit at 15.4%, good for 28th in the league, but the Blackhawks’ penalty kill is top-5 at 84%. Meanwhile, Chicago’s power play has been surprisingly decent at 19.4%, but they take way too many penalties — 418 penalty minutes, which is 4th most in the league. That’s surprising given their record, but it goes to show that special teams isn’t everything.
New York’s PK unit is solid at 82.7% and ranks 8th in the NHL, which gives them a slight edge in staying out of trouble and shutting down man-advantage chances.
If this turns into a whistle-filled night, the Isles’ discipline might help them tilt the ice.
Prediction — Islanders Have the Tools to Handle Chicago
This isn’t the most exciting matchup, but it’s a spot where the Islanders should take care of business, and they need it more than ever to regain some momentum. Their defensive structure and goaltending are simply better as they’ve allowed just 104 goals all season — compared to 122 for Chicago — and they’ve shown they can win tight, gritty, low-scoring games.
Chicago just doesn’t have enough support outside of Bedard. The Blackhawks give up more shots per game, more goals per game, and take more penalties. It’s a perfect storm for another loss compared to a team like the Islanders. Their 2-8 stretch shows how little margin for error they have, and even when Bedard produces, it often isn’t enough to flip the outcome. They’ll need help throughout all phases of the game.
- Prediction: Islanders 3, Blackhawks 1
- Best Bet: Islanders Moneyline at -148
The value may not be huge, but the Isles have the edge across the board, and that’s what we like about this bet. When you compare the goaltending, defense, recent form, and depth, all signs point to the Islanders. They’ve had a couple of hiccups, every team has, but this is a good get-right spot against a leaky Blackhawks team.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
