Incredibolt in the 2026 Preakness Stakes: Why Derby Experience Could Make All the Difference
If you’re newer to horse racing and trying to figure out why certain horses have an edge in the Preakness Stakes, here’s a concept worth understanding: Derby experience. Not every horse in Saturday’s field at Pimlico ran in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, and that distinction — seemingly simple on the surface — actually carries real statistical weight in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Incredibolt is one of the horses who made that trip to Churchill Downs, and when you combine that with who’s in the saddle, a case starts to build.
What It Means to Be a Derby Returner
The Preakness Stakes is run just 14 days after the Kentucky Derby. That’s a tight turnaround, and for a three-year-old horse, the experience of running in the Derby — the noise, the crowd of 150,000 people, the massive field, the stress of one of the most hyped events in sports — is significant. Horses who didn’t run in the Derby arrive at Pimlico fresh, but also without that baptism by fire.
History backs up Derby returners. Since 2010, the Preakness has been won by a horse that also ran in the Kentucky Derby more often than not. The logic is straightforward: Derby horses arrive knowing what a major race environment feels like. They’ve already been pushed to their limits and come out the other side. For a late-closing horse like Incredibolt, that experience of navigating a packed field at full speed in the stretch is invaluable preparation for what’s coming Saturday.
Understanding Incredibolt’s Kentucky Derby Trip
When you look at the official chart from the Kentucky Derby, Incredibolt finished sixth. At first glance, that’s a middling result for a horse going off at 24-1 odds. But the finishing position doesn’t tell the full story, and this is where understanding what happens during a race — rather than just at the finish — really matters.
In horse racing, a “troubled trip” refers to situations where a horse is impeded, blocked, or forced to expend extra energy maneuvering around traffic rather than running a straight, clean path. The Kentucky Derby, with 18 or more horses navigating a 1.25-mile course, is the most chaotic race of the year from a traffic standpoint. Even the best horses can get caught behind a wall of horses in the stretch, forced to wait for a gap that may never come — or come too late.
Incredibolt experienced exactly that in this year’s Derby. His jockey, Jaime Torres, had him positioned well heading into the stretch, but traffic forced the colt wide. He had to go around horses rather than through them, burning extra ground and extra strides. When he finally got free, he finished just four lengths behind the winner. Four lengths sounds like a lot, but in a race where a troubled trip can cost a horse several lengths of ground, that margin shrinks considerably when you account for what actually happened on the track. He exited in excellent shape — no concerns about his health or soundness heading into the Preakness.
Jaime Torres Already Knows How to Win This Race
This is perhaps the most underappreciated factor in Incredibolt’s Preakness profile: his jockey has won this exact race before.
Jaime Torres won the 2024 Preakness Stakes aboard Seize the Grey at Pimlico. That’s not a minor credential — it means he knows how the track rides, where the ideal positioning is through the first turn, how to rate a horse through the backstretch, and how to set up for a strong finish in the stretch. Pimlico is a unique track, and having a rider who has already navigated it successfully in a Preakness field is a genuine edge that numbers don’t always capture.
Torres also knows Incredibolt well at this point. In the Virginia Derby back in March, Torres described his ride in vivid terms: he sat in the pocket, found a seam, and the horse exploded along the rail to win by four lengths. That race earned Incredibolt a Brisnet speed figure of 100 with a late pace figure of 115 — elite numbers for a three-year-old at that stage of the season. The combination of Torres’s instincts and Incredibolt’s late-running ability gives this team a real shot if the race sets up correctly. If you’re looking to bet the Preakness, you can get started with a FanDuel promo code or a DraftKings promo code to put some skin in the game.
The Trainer Behind the Horse
Riley Mott is in just his fourth year of training, but the name carries weight. He’s the son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner whose influence on the craft is undeniable. Riley Mott broke through with his first Grade 1 wins in 2025, so this Preakness appearance with Incredibolt represents one of the most significant stages he’s appeared on so far. His handling of the colt has been measured — after a puzzling fade in the Holy Bull Stakes earlier this year, where the horse was beaten 25 lengths and Mott himself said there was no explanation, the connections didn’t panic. They pointed him to the Virginia Derby, the horse responded with a dominant effort, and he came out of the Kentucky Derby in terrific condition.
Incredibolt was purchased for $75,000 at the Keeneland yearling sale — a modest price by Triple Crown standards. He’s bred by Bolt d’Oro, a sire known for producing horses that develop and improve with experience. With nearly $500,000 in career earnings already and the Preakness ahead, this horse has outperformed his purchase price many times over. Pin Oak Stud LLC owns him, and the operation doesn’t bring a horse to the Preakness without believing in the horse’s chances.
How He Fits in the 2026 Preakness Field
The 2026 Preakness field has a few interesting dynamics. Iron Honor enters as the morning-line favorite at 9-2, and Chip Honcho (5-1) comes in fresh after skipping the Derby. Taj Mahal (5-1) is undefeated at Laurel Park, though he hasn’t faced a Derby field. Incredibolt is also listed at 5-1, which makes him a genuine co-favorite despite his sixth-place Derby finish — a sign that those watching his works and tracking his form believe that finish undersells what this horse is capable of.
For bettors looking to get involved in the race, Incredibolt represents a legitimate win contender with multiple reasons to like him beyond just his odds. Derby experience, a proven winning jockey at Pimlico, a powerful late kick, and a horse that came out of the Derby ready to run again — that’s a combination worth paying attention to when the gates open Saturday. A BetMGM promo code can help you get in on the action with some extra value behind your Preakness wager.
Carmelo Roldan
Sports Betting Contributor
Carmelo graduated from Kent State University with a bachelor’s degree in business management. Using his 10+ years of sports betting experience, Carmelo is one of the main analysts for UFC on HelloRookie.
