Flyers vs Lightning Prediction — Tampa’s Offense Too Much for Philly?

The Philadelphia Flyers take to the ice in Florida to face the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight in a game that should tell us a lot about both teams’ staying power. Tampa Bay is without a doubt heating up with 3 straight wins and sits 2nd in the Atlantic Division with 26 points. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is hanging on in the thick of the insane Metropolitan Division race, sitting 4th with 25 points.

While both teams are currently in playoff position, the way they’ve been getting results is much different from one another. The Lightning are powered by a strong offensive core and a PK unit that’s among the league’s best. The Flyers have relied more on their netminder and grit. It’s the classic high-skill vs. high-effort matchup, and we’re about to find out which wins out.

Game Info and Current Form

This is the first time these teams have met this season, and there are 2 more after this, but this one is coming at a critical point in their respective schedules. Tampa Bay has won 7 of its last 10 games, including recent wins over some of the best teams in the NHL, such as Washington, Edmonton, and Florida. They’ve been averaging 3.5 GPG over that stretch, with a power play clicking just under a modest 18%. Despite all of that, the Lightning aren’t unbeatable at home, sporting just a 6-5 record at Amalie Arena, but they’ve looked sharper there over their past few games.

Philadelphia comes into tonight with a bit more inconsistency. They’ve gone 5-3-2 over their last 10, which isn’t that bad, but they’ve had some strong showings against New Jersey and St. Louis, but a lopsided 5-1 loss to Dallas sandwiched in between. The Flyers are 3-3-1 on the road, and they’ve yet to prove they can consistently beat top-tier teams away from their own ice.

What stands out to us right away in this matchup is how much the Lightning trusts its offense to set the tone. They rank 18th in goals scored league-wide, but they’ve climbed the standings on the back of smart puck movement and strong finishers. Jake Guentzel leads the team with 22 points, including 12 goals, and Brandon Hagel has helped out a bit as well with 9 goals and 10 assists of his own. Nikita Kucherov remains the engine on the PP unit with 12 helpers and 4 power-play points. When this unit is clicking, Tampa becomes one of the hardest teams in the league to shut down, and with players like that, it’s easy to see why.

The Flyers simply can’t match that kind of firepower. Their offense ranks 31st in goals, 27th in assists, and 23rd in power play conversion. Simply put, if Trevor Zegras doesn’t produce, and sometimes he can’t lift it all on his own, Philadelphia often doesn’t score enough to stay in games. He leads the Flyers with 21 points, spanning 7 goals and 14 assists, and has been carrying the load offensively. Matvei Michkov has had a few big moments as of late, but overall, the Flyers struggle to generate high-danger chances, and that’s not a recipe for success against a dominant team like Tampa Bay.

Still, Philadelphia has found ways to stay relatively close in games. Much of that credit goes to Dan Vladar, who is expected to start again tonight. Vladar has been fairly decent this season with a 2.42 GAA and a .912 SV%. That puts him in the upper tiers of goalies in the NHL. He’s won 4 of his last 5 starts and helped shut down high-powered offenses like New Jersey and St. Louis. He’s capable of stealing a game here and there, and if the Flyers are going to pull off the upset, he’ll need to be at his best.

Tampa Bay will likely counter with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s had a steady, if unspectacular, campaign. His numbers are decent as well, with a 2.52 GAA and a .907 SV%, which aren’t far off from Vladar’s, but Vasilevskiy’s playoff experience and consistency give the Lightning confidence that he can hold down the net even if the offense doesn’t put up 4-5 goals.

Defensively, both teams have been decent, though far from dominant. Philadelphia actually holds a small edge in GA/G at 2.80 vs. Tampa’s 2.86, but Tampa faces tougher offensive competition more regularly in the Atlantic Division. The Flyers do a better job limiting shots against, allowing just 25.1 per game compared to Tampa’s 27.9. But again, goaltending and special teams make the real difference when we’re discussing these 2 teams.

Tampa Bay’s PK is one of the best in the NHL, killing off 87.3% of power plays — 2nd overall in the NHL. Now compare that to the Flyers, who kill off 85% of their penalties, which is still very good by any standard, but they’re more prone to lapses. The Lightning also take more penalties with 266 PIM to Philadelphia’s 226, so they’ll need to avoid handing the Flyers too many power play opportunities. That said, the Flyers’ power play hasn’t done much with their chances as they’re converting at just 17.5%, good for 23rd in the league.

Over their last 5 games, Tampa Bay has looked much sharper. They beat the Capitals convincingly at 5-3, the Oilers 2-1 in OT, and the Panthers 3-1, allowing just 5 total goals in those 3 wins. As we mentioned, those teams aren’t pushovers. Their only recent slip came in a 6-2 loss to Vancouver, but they bounced back right away. Philadelphia also has some strong recent results — a 6-3 win over New Jersey and a 3-2 OT win over St. Louis — but they’ve been more erratic, losing to Dallas 5-1 and dropping a 2-1 OT game to Edmonton.

We can’t understate the fact that the underlying numbers back it up. Tampa Bay shoots the puck better, converts at a slightly higher rate on the power play, and has more assists, goals, and offensive zone possession overall. Defensively, it’s a little bit closer, but Tampa’s elite penalty kill and ability to handle pace give them the edge for tonight’s showdown.

Prediction — Lightning Keep Streaking

Philadelphia is undoubtedly a scrappy team with a goalie who can keep them in most games, but this matchup leans heavily in Tampa Bay’s favor. The Lightning have more consistent scoring threats, a better special teams unit, and are simply playing cleaner, more disciplined hockey right now, and in the NHL, streaks go a long way.

If this turns into a special teams battle, Tampa wins. If it turns into a high-scoring shootout, Tampa wins. The only path for the Flyers is to grind out a 2-1 type of game where Vladar plays lights out, and that’s a tall task against a Lightning team that’s averaging 3.5 GPG over the last 10.

This one definitely won’t be a blowout, but the gap in offensive firepower is too wide to ignore. We see this one as Tampa Bay wins a 4th straight and keeps pressure on Detroit at the top of the Atlantic.

• Prediction: Lightning 4, Flyers 2
• Best Bet: Tampa Bay -1.5 at +145

The Lightning have won 3 in a row by multi-goal margins and are facing a Flyers team that has struggled to keep up with high-paced offenses. We’re going with the puck line because it offers better value than the moneyline, and given Tampa’s scoring depth and recent form, they should cover it again here even if it’s a mid-ice shot in the final minutes on an empty net.