Flyers vs Canadiens Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for Tuesday Night
We’ve got a full slate of hockey tonight, and this one is a game that really intrigues us for the betting value. The Philadelphia Flyers are heading just a bit north to face off against the Montreal Canadiens tonight in what will be their 1st meeting of the season. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at the Bell Centre, where the Canadiens are 4-1 at home and coming off a thrilling 4-3 OT win over Ottawa. The Flyers, meanwhile, just dropped two in a row and are still looking for their first road win of the year. Will tonight be the night they get that?
Game Details and Betting Odds
Montreal comes in at 9-3-0, tied atop the Atlantic Division with Detroit. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 and have one of the most productive offenses in the NHL. Philadelphia, at 6-5-1, is battling in a heavily crowded Metropolitan Division but has been somewhat inconsistent, especially away from home.
Bookmakers have the Habs as -155 favorites on the moneyline, while the Flyers come in at +130 underdogs. The puck line gives Montreal -1.5 at +160, with Philadelphia +1.5 at -192. The over/under is set at 5.5 goals, with the over priced at -125 and the under at +105.
| Team | Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flyers | +1.5 −192 |
O 5.5 −125 |
+130 |
| Canadiens | −1.5 +160 |
U 5.5 +105 |
−155 |
Given the way Montreal has been scoring and moving the puck, and Philadelphia’s defensive reliability, this number feels right on the money. But when you dig into how these teams play, the value leans one way by quite a bit.
Offense vs Defense
Montreal’s edge starts with their high-octane offense, where they’re ranked 8th in total goals with 44 and 6th in both assists at 77 and power play percentage at 28.6%. That group is powered by the dominant Cole Caufield, who leads the team with 10 goals, and Nick Suzuki, who’s quietly having an elite season with 16 assists and 18 points in 12 games. When these 2 are on the ice, they’re unstoppable.
The Flyers don’t have that firepower, and it’s not even close. They’ve only scored 31 goals, which ranks them 29th, and their 18.9% power play conversion sits 20th in the league. As for the offense, Trevor Zegras leads the team with 13 points, but Philadelphia’s forwards simply aren’t producing the same. Owen Tippett has chipped in 5 goals, but no one on this roster has the game-breaking upside of Caufield or Suzuki. There are no comparisons.
What keeps the Flyers competitive is their defensive structure and elite PK unit. They allow just 2.58 GPG, which is 4th-best in the NHL, and they’re shutting down opposing power plays at an insane 90.5% which is good for 2nd-best in the league. Dan Vladar is expected to get the start in goal, and he’s been strong this year with a .924 SV% and a 2.11 GAA.
Montreal has been a little leaky on the defensive side, giving up 3.00 goals per game and killing penalties at just 76.9%, which ranks 20th overall. That could be a crack the Flyers try to exploit if they manage to draw enough penalties. But relying on penalties to win a game is a tough strategy.
Philadelphia leads the entire league in penalty minutes with 169, which is a major red flag against a team like Montreal that thrives on the man advantage. If the Flyers can’t stay disciplined, and they haven’t so far, they’ll hand easy opportunities to one of the league’s best power-play units.
Goaltending Matchup
Goaltending could be the X factor in this game, and it’s where Philadelphia may have the edge — at least on paper. Vladar’s numbers speak for themselves. On the other side, Sam Montembeault is the projected starter for Montreal, and he’s been shaky, posting a .839 SV% with a 3.66 GAA. The Canadiens have a much stronger option in Jake Dobes, who’s 6-0 with a .930 SV% and 1.97 GAA, but indications point to Montembeault getting the nod for tonight’s showdown.
If that’s the case, Philadelphia has a clear goaltending advantage, but whether they can capitalize on it is another question entirely.
Prediction and Best Pick
This is a classic case of two teams simply trending in different directions. The Flyers are undoubtedly physical and defensively sound, but prone to mistakes and light on scoring. The Canadiens are undeniably fast, skilled, and dangerous at home — where they’ve already beaten good teams like Edmonton and Calgary.
Philadelphia’s top-ranked PK will get tested often, and unless they clean up the penalties, it’s hard to see them keeping Montreal’s scorers quiet for a full 60 minutes. With Caufield red-hot and Suzuki piling up helpers, Montreal’s attack is too much for the Flyers’ undermanned offense to match.
- Prediction: Canadiens 4, Flyers 2
- Best Bet: Montreal Canadiens -155 Moneyline
The goaltending edge for Philly is real, but unless Vladar stands on his head, the Canadiens’ offensive depth and power play should be enough to get the job done at home. We’re going to play this safe on the moneyline, but there’s a good chance an empty-netter in the final 2 minutes could allow the Habs to clear the spread.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
