Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction — Will Tampa Take Control or Let It Slip?

It’s not exactly the NFC South showdown the league had in mind when they scheduled it for TNFl, but there’s still plenty to get excited about for this matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa needs this win to stay in full control of the division, while Atlanta — already mathematically eliminated from the 2025 postseason — is looking to spoil someone else’s season and possibly salvage what’s left of their own for any sort of humility.

The Bucs are getting healthy at just the right time, but the Falcons? Not so much.

Game Info and Latest Odds

Tonight’s game kicks off at 7:15 PM ET in Tampa, where the Bucs opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line has moved slightly to -4.5. The total is set at 44.5, and the moneyline shows the Bucs at -245 with the Falcons as +200 underdogs. Tampa Bay currently holds a 7-6 record, which is tied with the Panthers for first in the NFC South. Atlanta, now 4-9, is already eliminated from playoff contention and heads into this one playing for pride, potentially some jobs, and, of course, to spoil the chances of the Buccaneers.

Given how these teams have played this season, we think the bookmakers are getting it right. 

What’s Going Right (and Wrong) for Each Team

Tampa Bay comes in stumbling after a pretty hot start. They were 6-2 before the bye but have lost 4 of 5 since, including an ugly loss last week to the Saints. Yes, those Saints.

Baker Mayfield has looked like a different QB over the last month and is almost unrecognizable. His passer rating in the last 4 games is just 65.2, and the offense hasn’t hit 24+ points since Week 9. The return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan is a huge and welcome boost, especially for a passing game that’s relied too heavily on Emeka Egbuka. With Evans drawing attention again, Egbuka should see more one-on-one looks and might finally break out of his recent slump. For a team that’s clinging to life in the NFC South, these are all great things.

The ground game has been a weak spot all year. Rachaad White is putting up under 37 YPG, and Bucky Irving, while getting some decent runs in spots, hasn’t averaged even 4 YPC since returning from his foot injury. Tampa has leaned on its passing game all season, which has worked out some of the time, but not lately.

Defensively, the Bucs are middle of the pack. They’re just 23rd in points allowed and give up 330+ YPG. The pass defense is a major concern, especially when facing teams that can stretch the field. Fortunately for the Bucs, Atlanta is not that kind of team right now.

The Falcons are in a death spiral. They’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 and just got blown out 37-9 by the Seahawks. The only team they beat during that stretch was — surprise — the Saints.

Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season, and Kirk Cousins hasn’t looked sharp since taking over. He’s thrown only 3 TDs with 3 interceptions in 4 starts. He’s also missing his top target, Drake London, who’s out this week with an injury. That leaves Cousins with Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and a bunch of question marks. This just might be the season he hangs up the cleats.

Robinson is doing all he can. He leads the league in scrimmage yards with 1,683 and has been Atlanta’s one reliable playmaker all year. But against Tampa Bay, it hasn’t come easy. He’s averaged under 4 yards per carry in 5 matchups with the Bucs and has yet to top 63 rushing yards in any of them. Tampa’s front, led by Vita Vea, is undoubtedly tough to run on as he’s 9th in the league against the run. If they bottle up Robinson again, the Falcons don’t have many other answers, and that’s where they’ll lose the game.

Atlanta’s offensive line hasn’t helped out too much either. They’re dead last in the league in 3rd-down conversions and gave up constant pressure last week against Seattle. Their special teams have been just as bad as they allowed a 100-yard kickoff return TD last week and had a field goal blocked. They’re ranked last in kickoff return coverage and don’t have a return threat of their own to flip the field.

Defensively, the Falcons are not as bad, but still barely respectable, ranking 14th in yards allowed. They’re especially solid against the run, sitting 9th in that department. The problem is, they’ve been leaking points. 3 of their last 5 opponents have scored 30+. Their pass rush ranks 3rd in the league in sacks with 43, but Byron Dorlus is questionable, and that’s a big piece missing in the middle if he can’t get onto the field.

What to Watch for on Thursday

The return of Mike Evans is the biggest storyline of the night. Evans hasn’t played since October due to a broken clavicle, but he’s been activated, had full participation in practice, and is expected to play. Before the injury, he was on pace for yet another 1,000-yard season. His presence alone changes how defenses line up, and with him back, the Bucs could find some rhythm again in the passing game — something that’s been missing for weeks. Tonight’s game feels like Tampa Bay might finally get back on track.

Tampa Bay’s offensive line will also have its hands full. Atlanta’s pass rush is undoubtedly legit. Even if Dorlus is on limited snaps, the Falcons have gotten consistent pressure all season. If they can collapse the pocket, they’ll give themselves a chance to hang around — especially if Mayfield isn’t 100%.

On the flip side, it’s hard to imagine Atlanta putting up that many points. Without London, they’ll lean on Pitts and Robinson, but that makes them incredibly easy to gameplan against. Tampa can load the box, keep a safety over Pitts, and dare Cousins to beat them with anyone else. So far this season, that’s a bet most defenses have been happy to make.

Prediction — Tampa Stays in the Playoff Hunt

This simply does not set up well for the Falcons. They’re short-handed on offense, have no serious threat, and are going against a team desperate for a win and now has more tools to do so. Kirk Cousins hasn’t done much since coming back, and Tampa has enough firepower — especially with Evans back — to take full advantage of a team that looks like it’s running out of steam.

We expect Tampa to take care of business at home. It may not be a blowout early, but they’ll wear down the Falcons and pull away by the 4th quarter. With the defense keeping Robinson in check and the passing attack finally getting a spark, this feels like a “get right” spot for the Bucs.

• Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 13
• Best Bet: Buccaneers -4.5

The Bucs need this game so bad and are finally getting healthy at just the right time. Atlanta can’t move the ball consistently, is missing their top wideout, and has one of the worst 3rd-down offenses in the league. We’re thinking that Tampa should win by at least a TD and easily cover the spread. If you’re looking to press it further, the under might be worth a look, given that Tampa’s offense has been struggling and Atlanta does not have an offense, but clearly the smartest play is backing Tampa to cover at home.