Ducks vs Islanders Prediction — Anaheim’s Firepower Faces New York’s Wall

The Anaheim Ducks are heading into UBS Arena riding high on a wild 3-game win streak and sitting comfortably atop the Pacific Division standings. They’re scoring at will, playing fast, and coming off a stretch of comeback wins that shows they can dominate any team on the ice. But on the other side of the rink is a New York Islanders team built around structure and defense. Winners of 4 of their last 5, the Isles aren’t the flashiest team in the league, but they know how to grind out close games. This East vs West showdown will undoubtedly deliver a battle of styles and, of course, momentum.

Game Details, Odds, and Matchup Narrative

The Ducks are 19-10-1, and after a fairly slow November, they’ve finally found their rhythm again. Their latest wins over Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Washington weren’t just about scoring, no, they were more than that. They showed poise, rallying from behind and keeping control in tight moments when it looked like they were going to drop the game. On top of that, none of those teams are really pushovers as they all tend to keep it competitive. Anaheim has become the comeback king in the NHL as they’ve already notched 11 comeback wins this season. Their ability to keep pushing late in games is clearly no fluke, especially after they forced OT in Pittsburgh with just 0.1 seconds left, then got the 2 points in the shootout.

New York is coming in at 17-11-3 and has quietly stacked up points in the brutal Metropolitan Division. They’re just 2 points out of the division lead, despite being 3rd in the standings and just a loss away from being 6th in the division. At home, they’ve been steady, not exactly dominant, but their 8-6-2 record at UBS Arena shows they can hold their own and grind out wins when they need to. Their last outing was a 5-4 shootout win over Vegas, a gritty game that fits their identity perfectly — low-event hockey, defensive focus, and capitalizing on mistakes. That’s all it takes. In one-goal games, the Islanders are an impressive 8-2. They don’t necessarily overwhelm you — they outlast you.

The bookmakers have the Islanders as slight favorites, opening at just -130 on the moneyline. Anaheim is listed near even at +105, with the total set at 6.5 goals. That’s right on par with the combined scoring average of both teams this season, and given how the Islanders have been playing lately and on their home ice, making them the favorites for this game feels about right.

Stats That Tell the Story

Anaheim is a top-tier offensive team, and its numbers back that up. They’ve scored 107 goals through 30 games, the 2nd-most in the NHL, averaging 3.57 GPG. Their attack is balanced and youthful. Leo Carlsson leads the way with 38 points, including 16 goals and 22 helpers. Cutter Gauthier has matched Carlsson with 16 goals of his own, while Troy Terry has been a force of his own with 23 assists. Even Chris Kreider, who’s only played 26 games, has chipped in 13 goals over that span.

Despite the offensive fireworks, Anaheim has areas they need to clean up. Defensively, they’re giving up 3.27 GAA, ranking just 23rd in the league. Their PK has been a problem all season, sitting at a dismal 75.5%. Goalie Lukas Dostal has held it together with an 11-5 record and a .904 SV%. He’s been good, maybe not Vezina Trophy good, but Anaheim hasn’t made it easy on him with all the chances they give up.

The Islanders are built a little differently. They’ve only scored 90 goals, which is good for 14th in the league, but they’ve allowed just 86, which is tied for 13th. That gives them a solid +4 goal differential, compared to Anaheim’s +9. Their biggest edge comes on special teams, where the Isles have an 84.3% PK%, 5th-best in the league. A number like that might not win them every game, but it very well could be a factor against an Anaheim team that relies more on even-strength scoring.

Bo Horvat is clearly doing the heavy lifting for New York with 19 goals and 12 assists. But after him, the scoring drops off a bit. Mathew Barzal and rookie superstar Matthew Schaefer each have 14 assists, but not many goals between them. Kyle Palmieri and Emil Heineman have contributed secondary scoring, but not enough to match the depth Anaheim brings to the table.

In the crease, Ilya Sorokin has been steady with an 11-8 record, 2.53 GAA, and a .910 SV%. He’s not dominating like he did last year, but he’s still capable of stealing games and getting the job done. The Isles also have David Rittich playing well as a backup, which gives them some cushion in net if needed.

Over their last 5 games, both teams are 4-1, but Anaheim has been more explosive offensively. They’ve scored 20 goals in that stretch. New York has scored just 16, with 7 of them coming in just a single game against Colorado.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game really comes down to pace. If the Islanders can slow it down and keep it tight, they’ll have a shot at 2 points. But that’s easier said than done against this dominant Ducks team, which has found ways to win high-scoring games, tight games, and everything in between.

The difference is Anaheim’s ability to generate offense from deep within its lineup. Carlsson, Gauthier, Terry, and Sennecke are producing nightly, while the Islanders continue to lean heavily on Horvat to do the damage, which makes it easier for the Ducks to plan against. If Sorokin doesn’t play near-perfect, New York could be chasing the game early.

The Ducks have the better momentum, more scoring depth, and have shown they can come back even when they trail. That kind of belief matters, especially on the road. Now add in the fact that they’ve won 3 straight away from home, and you’ve got a team that doesn’t mind traveling.

New York’s defense undoubtedly keeps them competitive, but the lack of scoring will finally catch up to them in this one, even if it’s later in the game.

• Prediction: Ducks 4, Islanders 2
• Best Bet: Anaheim Ducks moneyline at +105

There’s too much value on Anaheim here when they’re priced at +105. They’re playing some seriously confident hockey, their stars are clicking, and they’ve proven they can win in multiple ways against a variety of teams. At plus money, they’re the better side to back — even on the road.