Ducks vs Capitals Prediction — Can Anaheim Snap the Skid in D.C.?

The Anaheim Ducks are reeling and desperate for a bounce-back despite being one of the hottest teams in the NHL just weeks ago. Losers of 5 straight, they head to Washington to face a Capitals squad that’s been somewhat of a mixed bag lately. These two already played once this season, with Anaheim winning in a shootout, but the big question is whether the Ducks can repeat that success, or will Washington defend home ice and add to Anaheim’s misery?

Game Details & Betting Odds

Anaheim Ducks, sitting at 21-17-3, visit the 21-15-6 Washington Capitals tonight at 7 PM EST. The game takes place at Capital One Arena, where the Caps are sitting decently at 12-7-3 on the season. The Ducks were sitting atop the Pacific with 45 points, but now they’re 3rd only behind Vegas and Edmonton, and the Caps are still in the running in the Metro with 48 points.

DraftKings opened with Washington as a slight favorite at -162 on the moneyline, while the Ducks are +120 underdogs. The puck line gives Anaheim a +1.5 edge, and the total is set at 6.5 goals.

This is the 2nd meeting of the season, and while Anaheim won the first 4-3 in a shootout back on December 5th, these teams are much different now than they were then.

Ducks Slumping into Trouble

The Ducks have hit an absolute wall. Their current 5-game losing streak includes 2 blowout losses to the Kings and Wild, where they allowed a combined 11 goals. They’ve been outscored 20-11 over this stretch and haven’t looked sharp at either end of the ice, so needless to say, there are plenty of areas to improve upon.

Goaltending has been one of the biggest issues, if not the biggest. Lukas Dostal is expected to start, and his numbers are simply terrible at a 3.22 GAA and .887 SV%. His backup, Petr Mrazek, hasn’t been much better, so it’s not like they have anyone else to go to. This team is struggling to keep pucks out of the net, and it shows as they currently rank 32nd in goals against and 29th in PK% at just 75.6%. Those are some serious trends they’ll have to turn around if they want to remain competitive in the Pacific Division.

Offensively, Anaheim’s got some talent even if they have cooled off lately. Cutter Gauthier leads with 19 goals, while Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry round out a respectable top line. They’ve scored 135 goals, which is tied with Washington, but the bottom-six production dries up quickly beyond those skaters.

Special teams are hit and miss. The Ducks sit 24th on the power play, converting only 16.9% of the time, and their 390 PIM are the 10th most in the league — often putting them in bad spots defensively.

That’s not to say they can’t shake off this slump, as they were one of the best teams in the NHL just last month, but when teams dip into this territory, it can take weeks to crawl out.

Capitals Looking to Steady the Ship

Washington hasn’t exactly been on fire either, as they’ve gone 3-5-2 in their last 10, but they’ve shown quite a bit more life lately. They picked up a SO win over the Blackhawks last time out and have wins over the Rangers and Devils recently, showing they can hang with playoff-caliber squads.

Their greatest strength lies in the crease. Logan Thompson has quietly been a rock with a solid 2.37 GAA and .915 SV%, and he’s expected to start. His presence gives Washington a clear edge in net over Anaheim.

Tom Wilson leads the team in goals with 22 and is tied for the team lead in points with 42 with Dylan Strome, who’s also been heating up with 7 power-play helpers. Rookie Aliaksei Protas has added 6 goals and 5 assists in his last 10, giving the Caps more depth up front.

Defensively, Washington is just about as solid as it gets. They’ve allowed just 2.76 GAA, which is 8th best in the league. Their penalty kill unit isn’t all that hot as it ranks 27th at 76.3%, but that’s still better than Anaheim’s. They also take fewer penalties, which has led to an 8-3-0 record when spending less time in the box than their opponent — a trend that favors them again here.

Prediction: Capitals Handle Business at Home

This feels like a bad spot for Anaheim, even if they’re due for a win. They’re leaking goals, haven’t won since before Christmas, and have to go into a tough Eastern Conference building against a goaltender who’s been dialed in as of late. It’s a bad combination to get back on track tonight.

Washington may not be playing their best hockey overall, but it’s still in a playoff hunt, and their defense and goaltending give it a solid floor to keep the Ducks at bay. Anaheim’s offense can’t be trusted to carry them in this one, especially if the goaltending continues to falter.

Add in the fact that Anaheim is just 2-6-2 in their last 10 while giving up 4+ goals per game, and the edge clearly goes to the Caps.

• Prediction: Capitals 4, Ducks 2
• Best Bet: Washington Capitals -1.5 at +170

Anaheim has lost 3 of its last 5 games by multiple goals and ranks last in the league in goals allowed. They weren’t always this bad, but they are now. With Thompson in the net and Wilson/Strome producing offensively, Washington should cover the puck line at home with no problem at all.