Dodgers vs Reds Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for July 30

The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the verge of a sweep as they take on the Cincinnati Reds tonight at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m., so there’s plenty of time left to get your bets in. Los Angeles took the first 2 games of the series, winning 5-2 on Monday and 5-4 on Tuesday. Riding a 2-game win streak and sending Shohei Ohtani to the bump to kick things off, the Dodgers are listed as -167 moneyline favorites. To no surprise, the Reds are home underdogs at +137, with the total set at 9.5 runs.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

Shohei Ohtani will make his 7th start of the season for the Dodgers. In very limited action, he’s been fairly sharp, allowing just 2 earned runs over 12 innings with 13 strikeouts, a 1.50 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s still working his pitch count up as the Dodgers are slowly bringing him back. In his first 2 games, he saw 1 inning; in the next 2 games, he saw 2 innings; and in the last 2 games, he saw 3 innings. He might be throwing 4 innings tonight, depending on how he’s feeling.

The Reds counter with righty Nick Martinez, who comes in at 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA over 121 innings. He’s given up 15 HRs this year and holds a 1.22 WHIP, which isn’t terrible, but far from elite.

This is a clear mismatch on paper. Ohtani hasn’t thrown a ton of innings, but his stuff is undeniably elite. Martinez, meanwhile, is more of a pitch-to-contact guy who has been throwing all season, but that style of pitching is dangerous against a Dodgers lineup that leads the majors in runs scored.

Offense, Momentum, and Trends

The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 6 games and are heating up at the plate. Over their past 10 games, they’ve averaged 5.2 runs and are hitting .254 AVG. Ohtani is red hot, hitting 6 HRs in his last 10 games. Will Smith continues to be one of the toughest outs in baseball as he’s batting .325 with a .423 OBP. The Dodgers as a team are batting .255, which is good for 3rd in the MLB, slugging .443, and averaging 5.2 runs per game. They’re also 2nd in the league in dingers.

The Reds, on the other hand, are batting .246 and averaging 4.5 runs per game. They’ve scored 9 total runs in the first 2 games of the series and are 5-5 in their last 10. Elly De La Cruz leads the team in home runs with 18 and batting average at .282, but outside of him and Matt McLain, production has been somewhat inconsistent. The Reds have been especially vulnerable against strong offenses, and the Dodgers are just that.

Cincinnati also has a tough time in these situations as they’ve now lost 8 straight Wednesday games when facing teams above .500. Sure, that might seem like an odd metric, but that’s more than a fluke — it reflects a team that struggles to step up when the competition gets tougher and they’re at the tail end of a series showdown.

Run Prevention and Key Matchups

The Dodgers’ pitching has been solid lately. They’ve allowed 4 runs or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games. Their season-long team ERA sits at 4.24, but the bullpen has been much better as of late. With Ohtani setting the tone for tonight’s matchup, they should be in good shape.

The Reds’ pitching is middle of the pack, but nonetheless, they seem to be getting the job done. Martinez is a serviceable starter, but tends to give up damage early until he gets settled in. The Cincinnati bullpen owns a 3.87 ERA, but that’s padded by some favorable matchups, and let’s not forget that Los Angeles is a different beast. In the first 2 games of the series, the Dodgers plated 10 runs, and both games went under the total thanks to quality pitching. That trend could continue, especially since 7 of L.A.’s last 8 road games played after a previous day’s game have gone under the total. 

Final Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers are simply the better team in every phase of the game, and it’s hard to look past that. They have the deeper lineup, the hotter bats, the more reliable starter (despite a limited sample size), and the better recent form. Toss in the fact they’ve already won the first 2 games of the series, and there’s no reason to expect a different result here, and apparently the bookmakers agree.

Ohtani’s presence on the mound gives Los Angeles an even bigger edge. He’s thrown 12 strong innings already and faces a Reds lineup that simply doesn’t punish mistakes often enough. If the Dodgers get even 4 innings from Ohtani, their bullpen should have no problem shutting things down the rest of the way. 

• Dodgers vs Reds Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 6, Reds 3
• Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 at +105

We expect another solid performance from the Dodgers’ bats and a relatively clean outing from the pitching staff. The safer bet is undoubtedly the moneyline, but there’s enough going for the Dodgers in this game that the run line at +105 seems a bit better. This one sets up well for the sweep.