Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick for August 22

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres square off tonight in San Diego, and it’s not just another NL West showdown — it’s a big game with serious playoff implications. Just one game separates the Dodgers, who are 73-55, and the Padres, who are sitting at 72-56, as both teams are fighting for positioning in a tightly contested division. 

The Dodgers have had the Padres locked in all season, as their season series stands at 8-2, but can the Padres come back and take the division?

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

This game showcases a fascinating pitching contrast between LHP Blake Snell and veteran righty Yu Darvish. Snell, now with the Dodgers and has a 3-1 record and a 1.80 ERA, is finding his groove in a big way. Over his last 3 starts, he’s thrown 16 innings with a 1.69 ERA and 21 strikeouts. He blanked the Rockies over 6 innings in his last start and has only allowed 2 homers all season despite only having 25 innings under his belt.

Darvish, on the other hand, has been all over the place as he sits at 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA. His last start was a shaky 4-inning performance, if you can call it that, against the Giants in which he gave up 4 runs. For the season, he’s surrendered 6 dingers in just 37.2 innings and owns a 9.00 ERA over the past week. It’s tough to see him getting his feet under him tonight as the Dodgers’ offense could make that number worse.

Fortunately for Darvish, the Padres are coming in hot, having won 3 straight games, all against the Giants, so there’s a bit of momentum there. But it’s worth noting that San Diego’s recent streak came at home against a San Francisco team that’s been slumping all season. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have won 3 of their last 5, with their last game being a 9-5 win at Coors Field against the Rockies.

Betting Odds and Team Trends

Bookmakers have the Dodgers favored at -122 on the moneyline, while the Padres are listed as +101 home underdogs. The run line favors LA at -1.5, priced at +139, while San Diego is getting +1.5 priced at -170. The over/under is set at 8 runs, with slight juice on the under at -119.

If you’ve been riding the under at Petco Park this season, you’ve been cashing because this park is extremely pitcher-friendly. The total has gone under in 34 of 62 games there, with just one push, and the average total runs at the stadium sits at 7.9, which is one of the lowest in the league.

Both teams have been profitable in night games — especially LA, which is 51-39 under the lights, while the Padres sit at 43-40 in night action. Head-to-head, the Dodgers took the last meeting between these two teams by a score of 5-4 just last week.

Why the Dodgers Have the Edge

Blake Snell, the former Cy Young winner, is looking like he’s back to form, and his ability to miss bats and limit damage makes him a tough matchup — and that’s even for an improved Padres offense. In his last start, he gave up just 3 hits in 6 scoreless innings against the Rockies. Over his last 10 innings against NL teams, he’s only allowed one earned run. He’s obviously feeling confident now that he’s back in the swing of things.

Offensively, LA brings the thunder as well. Shohei Ohtani leads the team with 44 HRs and 83 RBIs, while Will Smith is hitting .303 with a .502 SLG. This Dodgers lineup leads the National League in runs scored and ranks just 2nd in home runs. They hit for power and average, boasting a team slash line of .255/.322/.441.

The Padres counter that with a more contact-oriented approach, led by Manny Machado, who’s batting for a .294 AVG with 21 HRs and 77 RBIs. But the supporting cast hasn’t consistently delivered, and that’s what has us worried. San Diego ranks just 29th in home runs per game and 21st in total runs. Despite boasting the league’s best OBA with a .224 and a strong bullpen, the Padres struggle to keep up when games turn into slugfests, and the Dodgers have the ability to do just that.

Even on the mound, their overall 3.54 ERA is a bit misleading because Darvish is not helping that cause. His 1.22 WHIP isn’t that bad, but he’s been tagged for 13 walks and 6 homers in just over 37 innings of work. His last 3 starts show an ERA above 5.00. This is obviously not the Yu Darvish that everyone is familiar with.

And while Petco Park is generally pitcher-friendly, the Dodgers are built to overcome that with deep lineup strength. Their ability to put together quality at-bats and draw walks undeniably puts pressure on pitchers who can’t command the zone — something Darvish has struggled with since he’s been back.

Prediction and Best Pick

We feel that this one really comes down to the starting pitching.

Blake Snell has been dialed in and faces a Padres offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in key offensive metrics. The Dodgers are in solid form and have shown they can win in any stadium, even in low-scoring environments like Petco.

The Padres’ recent streak is encouraging, but we think it’s likely inflated by soft competition. Against a locked-in Snell and an offense firing on all cylinders, they’ll have trouble keeping pace.

• Dodgers vs Padres Prediction: Dodgers 5, Padres 3
• Best Bet: Take the Dodgers moneyline at -122

It’s a fair price for the stronger starter and deeper lineup. Given that these 2 teams are some of the best in the NL, it could come down to a shootout, keeping the score close, so with that, we’re staying away from the run line. 

For a bit more value, take a look at Will Smith to go yard. He has hit a dinger in each of his last 2 road games against the Padres after playing the previous day. He’s dialed in, and with a prop bet at +425, it’s hard to pass up, especially with the mistakes Darvish has been making.