Detroit Red Wings vs. Washington Capitals Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Washington Capitals are set to host the Detroit Red Wings tonight for their 3rd and final matchup of the regular season at Capital One Arena.

With the puck drop set at 7:00 PM ET, there’s plenty of time to get your bets in for this Eastern Conference showdown. The Capitals enter as solid favorites at -195 on the moneyline, while the Red Wings are listed as +155 underdogs. While the Caps have a solid grasp on the Metropolitan Division, the Red Wings are still fighting for a wild card slot, making this a crucial late-season battle.

Washington has been dominant at home this season. They’re posting an impressive 23-8-2 record on their ice. Detroit, meanwhile, has struggled a bit on the road, particularly against Eastern Conference opponents, dropping 6 straight games in those situations.

With both teams coming off wins, momentum will be key in tonight’s game. However, the Capitals seem to have all the right advantages heading into this one.

Betting Odds and Game Analysis

Oddsmakers have made Washington the favorite, and it’s easy to see why once you take a look at the numbers.

They have been the better team all season, especially in front of their home crowd. Detroit has shown they can beat good teams but has been inconsistent as of late, particularly on defense.

The betting line has Washington at -195 on the moneyline, while Detroit sits at just +155. If you’re looking at the puck line, the Capitals at -1.5 and +125 deliver some solid value, considering how they’ve done over their last few games. The over/under is set at 6.5 goals, with the over juiced to -125, which tells us that the oddsmakers expect plenty of scoring in this one.

Detroit’s last game saw them pull off a surprising 3-0 shutout over the Vegas Golden Knights, the top team in the Pacific Division. 

However, that win seems like a bit of an outlier. In their last 10 games, the Red Wings are just 3-7 and have allowed an average of 3.15 goals per game. Defense and goaltending have the biggest concerns, as they’ve struggled to contain opposing offenses. Of course, just before the trade deadline they did pick up netminder Petr Mrazek, who has been holding his own since coming over to Detroit, but more on him in a minute.

Washington, on the other hand, has been absolutely rolling. The Capitals have won 4 of their last 5 games, including a dominant 5-1 win over San Jose in their most recent outing. Of course, it’s San Jose, one of the worst teams in the NHL, but it’s still a statement.

Their offense has been clicking as they’re averaging 3.63 goals per game over their last 5 games, while their defense has allowed just 2.57 goals per game in that span. They’ve been really strong at home, winning 7 of their last 8 games at Capital One Arena. Will they make it 8 of 9 after tonight?

Matchup Breakdown

Goaltending could play a major role in this one. Washington has a significant advantage in net with Logan Thompson who has been nothing less than stellar as he boasts a 29-4-5 record with a 2.32 GAA and a .916 SV% — one of the best in the league. He has been one of the more reliable goalies in the league, and with the Capitals’ defense playing fairly solid in front of him, it’s hard to see Detroit getting a lot of high-quality scoring chances.

Detroit, on the other hand, has had issues in goal. Cam Talbot has a 3.0 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage, while Petr Mrazek has been even worse, with a 3.33 GAA and a .892 SV%, though his shutout against the Golden Knights could spur some confidence. Those numbers don’t inspire much confidence, especially against a Washington team that has been finding the back of the net as often as they do.

Offensively, Washington’s Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin have been leading the charge and it’s easy to see why. Strome has put together an impressive season with 65 points over 21 goals and 44 assists, while Ovechkin continues to be a force with 34 goals and 9 power-play tallies as he chases Wayne Gretzsky’s scoring record.

The Capitals have been generating plenty of offensive chances, especially high-danger chances, averaging nearly 28 shots per game, and they should have no trouble testing Detroit’s shaky goaltending.

The Red Wings’ best offensive weapon has been Lucas Raymond, who leads the team with his 69 points over 23 goals and 46 assists. Alex DeBrincat, though he’s cooled off in recent weeks, has also been a key piece, with 31 goals on the season, but Detroit’s offense has lacked consistency. They are averaging just 2.85 GF/G, which isn’t going to cut it against a Washington team that has been lighting up the scoreboard. They’ll need their depth to step up and help out if they’re going to pull off the win in Washington.

Special teams could also be a difference-maker. The Red Wings hold an edge in power-play efficiency, converting at a 28.3% rate, compared to the Cap’s 22.3%. Despite being one of the best power play units in the NHL, the Red Wings’ penalty kill has been a weak spot, operating at just 69.9%, which is the absolute worst in the NHL.

If Washington can capitalize on a couple of man-advantage opportunities, that could be enough to seal the game and never look back.

Prediction and Best Bet

Washington has all the advantages heading into this matchup and there’s no question about that. They have the better goaltender, the stronger offense, and a dominant home record. Detroit’s defense has simply been too inconsistent, and their road struggles are fairly apparent as well. It’s tough to pull for them in this game.

The Red Wings may put up a fight early, but over the course of 60 minutes, Washington’s talent and depth should be too much to handle. 

The Capitals’ ability to score at 5-on-5 and on the power play will likely be the big difference-maker in this one. We expect Logan Thompson to control the game in net, while Ovechkin and Strome lead the way offensively and will each notch a point or 2.

The final score should favor Washington, and they have a strong chance to cover the -1.5 spread even at +125 odds.

Now, If you’re looking for a decent prop bet, Connor McMichael over 0.5 assists at +230 is a great option, as he has notched a helper in 7 of Washington’s last 8 home games.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Capitals 4, Red Wings 2
• Best Bet: Capitals -1.5 at +125

We think Washington should take care of business on home ice. The best bet is Capitals -1.5 at +125, as they should be able to win by a few goals against a struggling Detroit team. We also feel that the over 6.5 goals at -125 is also worth considering, given both teams’ recent scoring trends.