Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction, Odds, and the Best Bet

Tonight’s NHL slate is typical of a Wednesday night with just 4 games on the docket, but there’s nothing light about this heavyweight matchup in Edmonton. The Dallas Stars who are 45-21-4 will head north to take on the Edmonton Oilers who are 41-24-5 at Rogers Place in a clash of Western Conference contenders.

But with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl both ruled out due to injuries, the Oilers are in a tough spot against one of the most consistent teams in the league.

Betting Odds and Key Numbers

The Stars are -150 on the moneyline, and the Oilers are sitting at +130, which tells you just how much the injuries to McDavid and Draisaitl are factoring into this line by the bookmakers. Of course, they’re also favoring the under in this game without the big playmakers as the total is set at 6.5, with the over at +115 and the under at -135.

Dallas comes in 2nd in the Central Division with 94 points and is within striking distance of Winnipeg. Meanwhile, Edmonton sits 3rd in the Pacific with 87 points, but without their 2 offensive juggernauts, the Oilers suddenly feel vulnerable even at home.

This is the 3rd meeting between the teams this season, with each side taking a win earlier in the year. The Oilers took the last game just a few weeks ago with a 5-4 win and the Stars took their first matchup in October with a 4-1 win. The series is tied 1-1, and this one will decide the season set.

Stars Have the Edge on Both Ends

Let’s not overcomplicate this. The Stars are the deeper, healthier team right now. There’s just no denying that. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 games, including a dominant 3-0 shutout over the Wild and an OT win against the Flyers. This team doesn’t always blow you away offensively, but they grind out wins on both ends of the ice.

Goaltending favors Dallas by a decent margin. Jake Oettinger has been steady with a 2.49 GAA and .909 SV% which puts him 10th in the NHL for netminders. Compare that to Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner, who’s struggled recently and holds a 2.87 GAA and .895 SV% which puts him near last of starting goalies. If the Oilers go with Calvin Pickard, he’s been fine in spot starts, but still not at the level of Oettinger.

Dallas also leads Edmonton in goals per game with their 3.36 GF/G vs. the Oiler’s 3.27 GF/G and allows fewer goals per game defensively with just 2.57 GA/G vs. 2.89 GA/G. Their power play and penalty kill units are both stronger than Edmonton’s as well, especially crucial with the Oilers missing their best man-advantage quarterback in McDavid.

This game could be a statement spot for Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson, who lead the Stars in points and goals respectively. With Edmonton’s defensive unit likely to be overworked, especially without their top offensive weapons to keep the puck at the other end of the ice, we’re looking for Dallas to control pace and zone time.

Oilers Are Vulnerable Without Their Stars

Edmonton is still a dangerous team, and they’ve got a solid home record. But without McDavid and Draisaitl, this offense loses its identity and might not have enough juice to overcome the smoking-hot Stars.

Draisaitl alone accounted for 101 points this season which puts him 2nd in the NHL and has carried Edmonton’s attack in recent weeks. Without him and McDavid, there’s a massive drop-off of leadership and talent.

The Oilers have scored 5+ goals in 3 of their last 5 games, but all of that came with their core healthy. Without their top 2 forwards, this team now leans on depth scoring — and that’s where we start seeing the cracks showing. Edmonton’s power play, which is in the top 10 of NHL teams, takes a massive hit without its top playmakers.

The Oilers’ defense has been a liability, and their goaltending hasn’t done much to make up for it. Even in recent wins, they’ve allowed 4+ goals a few times. Against a team like Dallas that doesn’t beat itself and capitalizes on mistakes, that’s a recipe for trouble.

Our Best Bet for Stars vs Oilers

We’re not going to get fancy here and keep it simple. The best bet is the Dallas Stars moneyline at -150. It’s not the best odds, and yes, it’s a little juiced, but then again, even the bookmakers are seeing the writing on the wall.

This is a solid price given the matchup and the injury situation. Dallas is rolling and has all the key advantages — goaltending, special teams, and forward depth. The Oilers are a shell of themselves without McDavid and Draisaitl, and even with home ice, they’re up against it.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Oilers 2
• Best Bet: Dallas Stars ML (-150)

While some analysts may lean toward Edmonton keeping it close or even winning outright, the intangibles lean heavily toward the Stars. We fully expect Dallas to control the game flow and lean on their elite structure to grind out another win as we get closer to wrapping up the regular season.

It’s the best game on the slate for tonight and the best value bet on the board. There’s still plenty of time to get your bet in at your favorite sportsbook.