Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for MNF
The Washington Commanders are heading to Arrowhead Stadium for a tough Monday night matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. What was supposed to be a battle between 2 exciting and dynamic quarterbacks has taken a turn, as rookie Jayden Daniels is out with a hamstring injury. That leaves veteran Marcus Mariota to take the reins for Washington. On the other hand, the Chiefs are coming off 2 dominant wins and are favored by double digits.
Game Details and Betting Odds
This is really a critical game for both teams, but the scales are already tilting hard and the game hasn’t even started yet. The Commanders sit at 3-4, including 1-3 on the road, while Kansas City is 4-3 and 3-1 at home.
As of now, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. On the moneyline, Kansas City is -675, while Washington is a +490 underdog. Bookmakers clearly expect the Chiefs to control this game for a full 60 minutes, and based on how both teams have looked recently, that expectation is fair.
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +10.5 −105 |
O 48.5 −105 |
+490 |
| Chiefs | −10.5 −115 |
U 48.5 −115 |
−675 |
Commanders vs Chiefs Analysis
Patrick Mahomes is looking more like his MVP self after some early-season struggles. He’s thrown for 1,800 yards, 14 TDs, and just 2 picks while completing 66% of his passes. Last week against the Raiders, Mahomes lit it up the board for 286 yards and 3 scores — and didn’t even need to step on the field for the 4th quarter. He’s now armed with a full arsenal, as Xavier Worthy is healthy and Rashee Rice is back from suspension. This offense is trending upward, fast and the Commanders don’t have a good answer.
Statistically, the Chiefs are a top-10 offense, averaging 26.6 PPG and 380.6 YPG. They’re especially dangerous on 3rd down as they convert 44.4% of their attempts which is good for 6th-best in the league.
But the real difference this season is the defense. Kansas City is allowing just 17.7 PPG, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL. They also rank 3rd in passing yards allowed with 174.6 and 4th in total yards allowed with 280.3. Their ability to shut down both deep passes and the run game has made them one of the most complete defenses in football. Just ask the Raiders, who didn’t score a single point last week in a 31-0 blowout loss.
On the other side of the field, Washington is sliding — and sliding hard. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games which includes a brutal 44-22 loss to the Cowboys in Week 7. Worse than that, their promising rookie QB Jayden Daniels suffered a hamstring injury and is out this week. That puts Marcus Mariota in the spotlight, and while he undoubtedly brings a bit of experience, he hasn’t started a meaningful game in over a year.
Lets not overlook that Washington has talent on offense, especially in the backfield. Jahmyr Merritt leads the way with 377 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, helping the Commanders rank 2nd in rushing yards per game with 148.9. However, they’re awful on 3rd down conversions with 35.5% and one of the worst teams in time of possession at 28:07 per game, good for 27th in the league. Without Daniels’ dual-threat ability, sustaining drives becomes even tougher.
Defensively, the Commanders are simply a mess. They rank 27th in total yards allowed per game with 364.3 and give up an average of 7.8 yards per pass attempt, the worst in the league. Opponents have racked up 8 pass plays of 40+ yards against them this season, tied for the most in the NFL. The secondary has undeniably been a liability all year, and Marshon Lattimore continues to struggle with penalties and busted coverages.
To make matters worse, Washington’s defense gives up a stunning 7.6 points per 1st quarter, the 2nd-most in the league. That’s why they’ve fallen behind by double digits in 5 of their 7 games. Once they’re down, they’re rarely able to crawl out of the hole they’ve created.
And with pass rusher Dorance Armstrong on IR, their already mediocre pass rush, who has 19 sacks total, just lost its best weapon. That’s bad news against Mahomes, who thrives when he has time and now he’s going to have plenty. Even under pressure, Mahomes averages 9.6 yards per scramble, 3rd-best among all QBs. The Commanders simply don’t have the personnel to slow him down.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense has run successful plays on 50% of all snaps this season, which is 2nd-best in the league. They also dominate the 3rd quarter, with a 61% success rate in that period alone. If the game is close at halftime, Kansas City typically pulls away and never looks back.
Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it can. The Commanders are one of the most undisciplined teams. They rank 5th in the NFL in penalty yards, and their lack of discipline plays right into the hands of a well-coached Chiefs squad. Last week, Dallas carved them up in just 35 seconds before halftime with back-to-back explosive plays. That’s exactly the kind of drive Mahomes and the Chiefs have feasted on all year.
The Chiefs’ biggest concerns are along the offensive line, where Trey Smith is questionable with back spasms and Josh Simmons is still out. But even with backups in, the line held up just fine last week and the Commanders shouldn’t be much different.
Prediction and Best Bet
This one looks heavily lopsided. Kansas City is surging, the defense is elite, and the offense is finally back to looking like their once explosive selves. Washington, meanwhile, is starting a backup QB, can’t stop the deep ball, and consistently falls behind early in games. Unless Mariota has a miracle game and the defense steps up from terrible to at least mediocre, this matchup heavily favors the Chiefs.
The 10.5-point spread might seem big, but given the circumstances, it’s clearly justified. Kansas City has the firepower to cover it and the defense to keep Washington stuck in the mud.
- Prediction: Chiefs 30, Commanders 13
- Best Bet: Take the Chiefs -10.5
The mismatch at QB, combined with Washington’s collapsing secondary and slow starts, makes this a spot where Kansas City should win comfortably and decisively.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
