College Football Week 7 Betting Preview: Top Picks for Saturday, October 11

Week 7 of college football is absolutely loaded! Our top insider has 2 best bets on tap for Saturday, October 11. Good luck with your wagers.

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Best Bet: Michigan Wolverines vs USC Trojans OVER 56

The Wolverines have had a decent start to the season. At 5-1, their lone loss came to undefeated Oklahoma in their 2nd game of the season and the 2nd game ever for Bryce Underwood. Since that loss, they handled a weak Central Michigan team with a 63-3 win but had struggles against both Nebraska and Wisconsin in games where they were favored in both. They did cover the short spread at Nebraska, but fell short last week at home against Wisconsin.

The biggest bright spot for the Wolverines has been the play of Alabama transfer Justice Haynes. He has finished with over 100 yards in all 5 games and has scored 8 touchdowns. He has been a security blanket for the Wolverines as true freshman Bryce Underwood is still getting comfortable in the offense.
USC sat last week out with a bye and used that time to lick their wounds from the 34-32 loss at Illinois the week before. After a furious 4th quarter comeback, the Trojans led 32-31 with just under 2 minutes to play, and the defense was unable to stop the Illini from moving the ball down the field to set up what would be the game-winning field goal.

Despite being 4-1 on the season, the defense has not been playing up to a standard that is needed in Big 10 play. They have allowed a total of 82 points through 3 conference games this season. If they plan on holding off the visiting Wolverines, they are going to need to play tougher on that side of the ball.

Both offenses have the capability of putting up numbers on their own. Now, with both facing sub-optimal defenses, we believe the points are going to be rather easy to come by in this matchup. We do lean a little towards Michigan on the spread with over 70% of the public backing the home Trojans, but we will take the over instead.

Key Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern California’s last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 15 of Southern California’s last 19 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 14 of Michigan’s last 20 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern California’s last 5 games when playing as the favorite.

Best Bet: Indiana Hoosiers +7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers were a surprise last season and have lived up to the hype through 5 games this season. They are 5-0, ranked #7, and have a top win over then #9 Illinois in a beatdown fashion (63-10). Fernando Mendoza has been terrific for the Hoosiers and threw just his 1^st pick of the season last week against Iowa. To that point, he had thrown 16 touchdowns without one. The defense has been stout for the Hoosiers as well, but there was a point last week when things looked scary against Iowa. After Mendoza threw that pick, the score was 13-13 and Iowa had the momentum. Luckily, the defense stood strong and forced a missed field goal on that subsequent possession and held tight after the Hoosiers scored what became the game-winning touchdown.

Oregon is ranked #3 in the country and are coming off a bye week. That could work in their favor as they were coming off a highly emotional win over then #3 Penn State the week prior in Happy Valley. Dan Lanning has this team playing at a high level and Dante Moore seems to be unflappable under center. He completed nearly 75% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions on the road against Penn State. The defense struggled in the 2^nd half and allowed Penn State to force overtime but stood up when it needed to in the big moment of OT to get the win.

We believe the Ducks are still going to be sniffing themselves a bit, even with the bye week. Everyone has been telling them how great they are, and they already defeated the toughest team on their schedule. However, this Indiana team is no joke and is going to put up a dog fight against these Ducks. We like Mendoza and company to keep this one tighter than the experts think and sneak out a cover on the road here.

Key Trends:

• Indiana is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games.
• Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
• Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games played on a Saturday when playing on the road.