College Football Week 7: Our Best Bets and Analysis for Saturday, October 11

We’ve reached the midway point of the 2025 college football season, and Week 7 brings several key matchups that could make or break some teams’ college playoff hopes. Coming into week 7, we have twelve undefeated Top 25 teams, and I would be at least two of them to lose this week!

Coming off last week’s article, going 2-2, UCLA perhaps shocked the world with their performance against Penn State, and they personally killed our 1st half under play. Who will have this week’s big upset? Let’s dive into some matchups I love this weekend.

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Oregon –7 (-130, Hard Rock)

Oregon has been one of the most balanced and disciplined teams in the nation through five games. Their offense is top 10 in yards per play, scoring, and red zone efficiency. Led by perhaps my favorite to win the Heisman, Quarterback Dante Moore, he has looked sharp, distributing the ball to multiple weapons, and Oregon’s offensive line has allowed very little pressure all season.

Now we can talk about the strength of schedules for both teams, and while Indiana has played the tougher schedule, I argue they have not seen an offense anywhere close to what Oregon will bring Saturday. Throw in the travel factor, and I will side with my model, who likes Oregon by exactly 7.

There is no true line value there, but we have seen what happens when teams like Indiana step up against the elites. I won’t be shocked if Indiana stays competitive, but Oregon’s battle with Penn State on the road should have them ready to win this game by 10 or more.

Indiana was only able to muster 20 points at Iowa, putting up 337 yards of offense, much less than their season average of 537. I believe Indiana will put up less than that against an even more elite defense that will force Mendoza to speed up his progressions and reads. Oregon’s defense with that home crowd will be too much here.

Alabama/Missouri Under 54 (-135, Bet365)

Alabama’s defense should travel well in this matchup. Since the Florida State game, Alabama has yet to allow more than 21 points, and that was to Georgia, at Georgia. Now they face a 5-0 Missouri squad who have been playing very well in their own right but is coming off back-to-back unders and now face the best defense they will have faced all season.

Both defenses in this matchup rank top 25 in scoring; Alabama allows 16 while Missouri allows 14.6. Alabama allows 5.1 yards per play while Missouri allows just 3.6, which is the 4th best in the nation. Alabama should struggle to move the ball on the ground as Missouri ranks #1 in college allowing under 63 yards per game. They also allow the 10th fewest passing yards in the country, while Alabama ranks 5th in passing yards allowed.

We will see some scoring as both teams have playmakers who can find the endzone, but I believe we will see a grind-it-out, back-and-forth chess match with these two defenses. Look for Alabama to get Ryan Williams going early in this matchup on the road. If you want another angle in this matchup, I do believe Missouri can keep this close, and I would play +3.5, but I would personally look for a +4 or +4.5 at -135 or less.

USC Moneyline (–125, ProphetX)

USC enters Week 7, 4-1, and their fanbase is craving for a big win to boost them into the top 25. This one has my attention as we have an unranked team favored against a ranked opponent, and a top 15 opponent, nonetheless. #15 Michigan will have its hands full traveling across the country to see one of the best offenses.

This will be Michigan’s third road game, and they were held to 13 points in Oklahoma, then put up 30 in a battle at Nebraska. This is projected to be a very high-scoring game as both teams’ Team Totals are above 27.5, and the total sits at 57.5. As of this writing, only 22% of the ticket bets have been on USC ML, but 40% of the money is on USC.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava has already surpassed 1,500 yards on the season and will face his toughest defense, perhaps of the entire season. What I love about him is that he protects the ball, currently sitting at 11 touchdowns to 1 INT. I expect the Michigan front to make it difficult for USC to get Jordan and Sanders going in the backfield, and will force USC to be one-dimensional.

USC has a stout rush defense ranked top 30 in the country, while ranking 111th in passing yards allowed. I like both teams to look to shut down the run, opening up the passing game for both. We should see a back-and-forth battle, but I’ll take USC to pull out a close 4th quarter win.