Canadiens vs Capitals Prediction, Odds & Game 5 Picks: Can Montreal Stay Alive?

Montreal faces elimination as they head to Washington for Game 5, a must-win game as they’re down 3-1 in the series. The Capitals have outplayed them in nearly every phase of every game, and now have a chance to close things out at home. While the Canadiens showed a little bit of life in Game 3 with an offensive burst of energy, it’s been mostly one-way traffic in Washington’s favor.

Game Info & Series Recap

The Washington Capitals are up 3-1 in the series after a commanding 5-2 win in Game 4, which followed wins of 3-2 in OT and 3-1 to start the series. Their single loss came last Friday in Game 3 when Montreal managed a 6-3 stunner at home. But in every other matchup, Washington has dictated the pace of the game and undoubtedly controlled possession.

Game 4 was a strong example of Washington’s edge in execution. Despite being outhit 34 to 26, the Caps capitalized on their chances. Dylan Strome, the team’s leading point producer, put up 1 goal and 1 assist and was the game’s top star. Brandon Duhaime, far from a household name, added 2 goals in a performance that showed Washington’s depth advantage. Montreal took advantage of the power play, going 2-for-4, but they managed just 18 total shots and lost the faceoff battle 58.3% to 41.7%.

If the Habs are going to beat the Caps and go deep into the playoffs, they’ll need to keep possession of the puck. When you’re consistently chasing the puck and not getting quality looks, winning becomes near impossible — especially in a playoff series where momentum and mistakes are magnified.

Capitals vs Canadiens Odds & Betting Insight

The Capitals enter Game 5 as heavy favorites on home ice at -198 on the moneyline, where they’ve been reliable all season and especially strong in the postseason. Montreal is listed as a modest underdog on the moneyline at +164. Oddsmakers are banking on Washington’s consistency and firepower to dominate the Canadiens and carry them through to the next round.

Total goals are set at 6.5, which makes sense given the high-scoring nature of Game 3 and Washington’s ability to rack up goals when they dictate the pace of the game. Montreal’s only hope lies in slowing the game down, being more methodical, and controlling the puck — something they’ve struggled with in D.C. so far.

Matchup Breakdown: Montreal’s Flaws Keep Piling Up

The overall numbers aren’t kind to the Canadiens. During the regular season they were giving up 3.18 goals per game, while only scoring 2.96. That imbalance might be manageable against an average team — but against the Caps, who are scoring a dominant 3.49 goals per game and allowing just 2.79, it’s a recipe for disaster and that’s why they’ve found themselves in a deep hole.

Washington’s power play is clicking at 23.5%, and they’ve been disciplined. They’ve allowed just 43 power-play goals all season despite a bit of a slip-up in Game 4. Compare that to Montreal’s 49 power-play goals allowed and a PK unit that hovers just above 80%, and the difference becomes clear. The Caps don’t just score more — they manage games better overall.

Nick Suzuki has been doing all he can for Montreal with 89 points, including 30 goals and 59 assists, and Cole Caufield is a dangerous goal scorer as well. But the Canadiens haven’t found enough secondary scoring in their depth to support their top guys. Lane Hutson has chipped in as a playmaker with 60 assists, but their offensive zone time just hasn’t been consistent. There’s a reason they barely squeaked into the postseason and this is it.

On the other side of the ice, Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin are keeping the pressure on. Ovechkin’s 44 goals prove he can still bury chances, and Washington’s ability to spread out their scoring means Montreal can’t just key in on one line. That was on full display in Game 4, when Duhaime had a breakout game and Washington still left some opportunities on the table.

Canadiens vs Capitals Game 5 Prediction

Game 3 might have given Montreal a spark, but Game 4 simply decimated that momentum. The Canadiens simply can’t string together quality minutes against this Washington team, which outpaces them in every facet. Even when they’ve started strong, they haven’t been able to sustain pressure or limit mistakes.

Combine all of that with the Capitals’ dominance in faceoffs, shot control, and high-danger chances, and this sets up as a perfect spot for Washington to end the series at Game 5.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Capitals 4, Canadiens 2
• Best Bet: Capitals on the puck line at +130

They’ve won all 3 of their games by multiple goals, and with a chance to close the series at home, they won’t take their foot off the gas. The moneyline will be the safer bet of course, but at plus money, we like the Caps. Montreal is showing cracks defensively and hasn’t proven they can keep up when Washington gets rolling.

If you want to add a little boost to your bet slip with a prop bet, you might want to consider Dylan Strome to grab 2+ points at +230. He’s been the Capitals’ most consistent forward in this series and continues to play a central role in both even-strength and special teams scoring. He’s grabbed multiple points in 2 of the 4 games in this series. On top of that, he’s posted at least one point in 13 of his last 14 games against the Habs, so that goes to show he’s locked in and ready to take them on.