Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Colorado Avalanche are heavy favorites coming into tonight’s game as they host the Calgary Flames at Ball Arena. While the Avs are unquestionable favorites for this showdown, we think this just might go the other way and we’re backing the Flames at +200. The value is great and there’s a bit more to this game than meets the eye.

Yes, it’s a bold pick and we might take some heat for it, but we have a method behind the madness.

Odds, Form, and What the Numbers Say

Colorado is sitting as a -250 favorite on the moneyline, with Calgary priced as a +200 underdog. With the total sitting at just 6 goals, even the oddsmakers don’t think this will be a shootout.

On paper, Colorado looks like an easy play. They’re 45-26-3 on the season and have won 7 of their last 10. We’ll just come out and say it — they’re hot right now. But look closer at those wins and it’s not all dominant. They’ve only covered the puck line in half of those games and have hit the over just 3 times. Sure, some of those wins were against some great teams like the Kings and the Stars, but the losses came against some mediocre teams like St. Louis. So, they’re not invincible.

Meanwhile, Calgary is 34-26-12 and has been sneakily solid in recent games. They’ve gone 5-3-2 over their last 10 and cashed the over in 6 of those. Even more telling? The Flames have averaged 0.5 more total goals per game than their season-long number over this stretch. Like the Avs, they’ve beaten some good teams and their losses came against some of the best teams.

The Avalanche have been slightly under their season scoring average, while Calgary’s offense is undoubtedly trending up. That shift in momentum is worth noting — especially with how much value you’re getting on the Flames side. At +200, it is hard to pass up.

Calgary’s Form Makes Them a Live Dog

Colorado’s edge is obvious and under most circumstances, we’d take them. They’ve got Nathan MacKinnon leading the NHL with 109 points headlining the offense and Mackenzie Blackwood and his .915 SV% and 2.4 GAA playing great in net. They’re deep and experienced.

But Calgary isn’t just showing up to get steamrolled. Dustin Wolf has quietly had a strong season with a .909 SV% and a solid 2.7 GAA. He’s more than capable of keeping this game close especially with how the blue line has been playing.

The Flames’ leading scorer, Jonathan Huberdeau, isn’t as flashy this year with just 58 points, but the Flames’ scoring has come from balance — not one guy. They have depth and that goes a long way. That can be an advantage against a team like Colorado which thrives when it gets out to a lead and forces opponents to play catch-up.

Plus, Calgary has a better-than-you-think team defense, led by MacKenzie Weegar, who’s +13 on the year. They’re disciplined and not afraid to slow the game down when needed.

Why We’re Taking the Flames

There’s no denying that the Avalanche are the better team overall and fighting for playoff positioning and not just a wild card spot like the Flames. But we’re not going to lay -250 on a favorite who hasn’t consistently covered and has been under their scoring average lately. If that was a sure shot, we’d take it, but that’s not the case.

The Flames come into this game with nothing to lose and momentum on their side. They’ve been playing with confidence and finding ways to stay competitive — even in games where they’re outmatched on paper and their playoff hopes slipping away.

Colorado might still win, but this line is giving Calgary way too much respect as an underdog. When you’re getting +200 on a team that’s playing well above expectations, has a hot goalie between the pipes, and is facing a team that hasn’t blown the doors off lately, it’s worth jumping on.

We think this is a coin-flip game hiding behind lopsided odds and we don’t want to pass up this money.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Flames 3, Avalanche 2
• Our Best Bet: Flames +200 on the Moneyline

There’s value in this bet. This isn’t a blind underdog play — it’s a spot where the trends, the form, and the context all line up to make Calgary the better side to back at these odds. If you want something slightly safer, you could always take the Flames at +1.5 at -120, but we don’t want to miss out on +200 with the same result.

Despite losing their first 2 games against the Avs earlier in the season, don’t be shocked if they steal one in Denver.