Bruins vs Stars Prediction — Boston’s Surge Meets Dallas’ Slide

The Boston Bruins are taking their game to Dallas, riding a 6-game winning streak, and they’ll look to keep things rolling tonight when they take on the Stars, who are not exactly living up to their early-season hype. The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET, and this one feels like a momentum test — for both teams — more than anything else. Boston is heating up at just the right time as we round out mid-season, while Dallas is trying to rediscover what made them one of the league’s better teams earlier in the season. Is tonight the night they get their game back on track?

Game Info and Matchup Breakdown

This will be the first of two times these 2 teams meet this season, and both have plenty on the line.

The Bruins come in at 28-19-2, good for 4th in the Atlantic Division with 58 points. Don’t be fooled by the fact that they’re in 4th because they’re still within striking distance of Tampa Bay and Detroit at the top. Dallas sits 3rd in the Central Division at 27-13-9, sitting on 63 points but trailing well behind both Colorado and Minnesota, both of which are cruising.

Boston has been red hot over their last 10 games as they’ve posted an 8-1-1 record while winning 6 straight. For a team that was near the bottom of the division most of the season, a swing like this can go a long way. Their most recent run includes dominant performances like a 10-2 win over the Rangers, a 5-2 win on the road against Chicago, and back-to-back shutouts of Detroit and Pittsburgh. They’re on fire, and it doesn’t appear anyone can slow them down. They’ve outscored opponents 41-19 during that 10-game stretch, and even though they’re just 11-11-1 on the road this season, they’re playing with some serious confidence.

Dallas, on the other hand, has hit a major slump that nobody saw coming. The Stars have dropped 3 in a row and are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss to Tampa Bay and have managed just 2 wins in their last 12 games. For a team that started the year with postseason expectations, the recent trend is a bit concerning if they can’t shake it off.

Betting Odds and Goalie Matchup

The bookmakers give Dallas the slight edge at home as Boston is priced at +124 on the moneyline and the Stars are the favorites at -148. The total sits at 5.5, with the over favored at -135.

Goaltending will be one of the biggest things to watch in this showdown. Jeremy Swayman is expected to start for the Bruins, and he’s been solid all year with a 2.77 GAA and a .906 SV%. Joonas Korpisalo, the backup, has posted weaker numbers, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll get the nod unless something changes at the last minute.

Dallas is expected to go back to Jake Oettinger, who, despite being their G1, hasn’t looked like himself lately. Since the start of January, he’s 1-4-1 with a 3.5+ GAA. That’s a tough stat to carry against a red-hot Bruins offense. Backup Casey DeSmith has better numbers overall, but hasn’t been leaned on much. 

Boston Firing on All Cylinders

What stands out the most about Boston right now is how deep and well-rounded their offense has become. While David Pastrnak continues to lead the way with 59 points spanning 20 goals and 39 assists, it’s not just a one-man show. Morgan Geekie has broken out as he leads the team with 25 goals and plays with an edge that’s made him a nightmare in the low slot. Over the last 10 games, Marat Khusnutdinov has added 6 goals and 4 assists, giving the Bruins another burst of production from a younger player.

Boston is scoring goals in bunches, averaging 4.1 GF/G over their last 10 outings. Defensively, they’ve been sharp as well, allowing just 1.9 GAA in that same stretch. Their 25.2% power play is ranked 6th in the league, and they’ve been opportunistic on special teams, even if the PK unit remains a bit shaky at 78.9%. Discipline is still an issue, of course, as they’ve racked up a league-high 660 PIM, but they’ve found ways to somehow control games even when they’re spending time in the box.

On top of that, their goaltending has been steady, and Swayman in particular has held strong behind a team that’s done a good job limiting high-danger chances and limiting the zone.

Dallas Stuck in Neutral

The Dallas Stars look like a team that knows how to win but can’t quite put it together right now, because let’s be real — this team knows how to win. Statistically, they’re still as solid as ever, but a decent part of that comes from earlier in the season. They rank 9th in goals per game at 3.27, 6th in goals allowed at 2.78, and their 28.4% power play is 2nd-best in the NHL. That’s not a team that’s supposed to lose 8 of 10. Those numbers are just too good for that, but then again, they’re undoubtedly in a slump.

Mikko Rantanen leads the team in scoring with 59 points and 44 helpers. Jason Robertson continues to be dangerous with 27 goals. The offense is talented, and they’re shooting at a high percentage at 13.0%, good for 2nd in the NHL, but the team just isn’t converting that into wins right now. They need the offense and defense to produce at the same time, not at different games. Over their last 10 games, they’re scoring just 2.4 GF/G, while giving up 3.2. That’s a major drop-off.

Surprisingly enough, the biggest concern is goaltending. Jake Oettinger isn’t playing at the level Dallas needs him to, and at the level everyone knows he can be at. His recent performances have been costly, and while Casey DeSmith has better numbers, the Stars haven’t given him the start consistently. They still have faith in Oettinger and his old ways. Without reliable goaltending, it’s tough to lean on their otherwise strong power play to carry them.

Missing a key piece of the team, Tyler Seguin, who’s out for the season with a torn ACL, also takes away a big piece of their forward depth and leadership.

Prediction — Bruins Keep Rolling

This game sets up as a tale of 2 teams moving in opposite directions. And while under most circumstances we would gladly take a bet on the Stars, the Bruins are playing sharp, smart, and aggressive hockey. They’ve beaten good teams during this stretch and haven’t just been relying on top-heavy scoring. With Swayman looking reliable in the crease and depth contributions from players like Geekie and Khusnutdinov, this version of Boston looks dangerous.

Dallas undeniably has the pieces to compete, but the current form isn’t there. The goaltending is unreliable to say the least, scoring is down, and they’ve lost the momentum they need to compete with high-caliber teams. If Oettinger continues to struggle, it’s hard to imagine the Stars finding a way to slow down Boston’s multi-line attack.

This game might be closer than the standings suggest, but Boston has the edge in current form, scoring depth, and goaltending.

• Prediction: Bruins 4, Stars 2
• Best Bet: Bruins Moneyline at +124

With a bet like this, you’re getting great value on a team that’s on fire. Boston is winning games convincingly, and they’re catching Dallas at a time when the Stars can’t seem to stop the bleeding from multiple wounds. Taking the Bruins to win outright at plus money is the smarter play for tonight’s game.