Braves vs Phillies Game 2 Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick
The Phillies are rolling into Game 2 of this 3-game set against Atlanta with a 4-game home win streak and a chance to take the regular season series lead after tying it up 2-2 just last night.
These are 2 teams that are fighting for control of the NL East, despite Philadelphia having a 9.5-game head start on Atlanta; however, Atlanta got off to one of the worst starts in their storied history and they’re making their way back. Will tonight’s game be the one where they show what they’re made of against one of the best pitchers in the league?
| ATL Braves | PHI Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-9 | Home | 18-8 |
| 9-19 | Road | 17-11 |
| 23-30 | Run Line | 30-24 |
| 19-29-5 | O/U | 23-30-1 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
| 4.1 | Avg. Runs For | 4.9 |
| 3.9 | Avg. Runs Against | 4.0 |
| 3.0 | Avg. Winning Margin | 3.1 |
| 2.4 | Avg. Losing Margin | 3.3 |
| 8.0 | Avg. Total Runs | 8.9 |
Game Details and Pitching Matchup
Philadelphia blanked Atlanta 2-0 in the series opener last night behind strong pitching and timely defense. It marked the Braves’ 2nd straight loss and their 8th defeat in the last 11 road games. Meanwhile, the Phillies keep finding ways to win, now sitting at the top of the NL East with a comfortable 35-19 record. Atlanta, at 25-28, trails by 9.5 games and is trying to avoid further slippage in a division that’s quickly getting away from them. They have plenty of games between them and the Phillies, but where they’re at, every game counts.
On the mound for Atlanta is AJ Smith-Shawver, who comes in at 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA and a bloated 1.42 WHIP over his 41.2 innings. He’s been, for the most part, hit-or-miss, especially recently. In his last outing against Washington, he gave up 7 runs in just 3 innings. Walks have been a problem as well as he’s allowed 20 free passes already this year. He’s not a bad SP, but he’s far from an ace.
Speaking of aces… Zack Wheeler counters for the Phillies, and the veteran right-hander is putting together another ace-level season. He’s 6-1 with a respectable 2.42 ERA, dominant 0.88 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts over his 70.2 innings. Even more impressive is that in May alone, Wheeler has gone 26.2 innings with just 2 earned runs allowed across 4 starts. He’s looked locked in and firing on all cylinders and that spells trouble for an Atlanta lineup that’s been inconsistent and still trying to find answers.
Betting Odds
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Braves | +1.5 -166 |
O 7.5 -115 |
+130 |
| PHI Phillies | -1.5 +140 |
U 7.5 -105 |
-155 |
Philadelphia is heavily favored at -155 on the moneyline, while Atlanta sits at +130. The run line has the Phillies at -1.5 at +140, and the Braves at +1.5 at -166. With these 2 SPs on the bump, these odds don’t surprise us. The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the underpriced at -105 and the over at -115, which is not what we expected when we saw Wheeler on the mound.
Braves vs Phillies Analysis and Prediction
The Phillies are clearly the hotter team despite all of the chatter coming into the season.
They’ve won 7 of their last 9 and are thriving at home, where they’ve also won 11 straight night games against teams with losing records — and Atlanta fills that bill. Their offense ranks top 6 in runs per game with 4.9, led by Kyle Schwarber and his 18 HR and 40 RBI and Trea Turner with his .305 AVG, and they strike out less than any team in baseball. When they’re making contact and pitching like they have been, they’re tough to beat and that goes for any team they’re up against.
Wheeler has a 0.68 ERA in May and just made the A’s, Pirates, and Guardians look silly over his last 3 starts. He’s walking fewer hitters, missing barrels, and averaging 9+ K/9. Atlanta’s been striking out more and scoring less lately, which is a dangerous combo against a guy like Wheeler who is having an MVP-caliber season.
Smith-Shawver has potential, but he’s been erratic in 2025. His command issues were on full display in that Washington loss, and now he’s facing one of the most patient, efficient lineups in the league. The Phillies are 5th in batting average and have posted 4+ runs per game consistently.
Looking at the Braves’ offensive metrics, they’ve dropped to 21st in total runs and 22nd in stolen bases. That’s not what we expected from this team, but it’s where we are. Matt Olson leads the team with 12 dingers, but he’s hitting just .234 AVG, and no one outside Michael Harris II has been consistent with RISP as he has 31 RBIs on the season.
Citizens Bank Park is averaging 9.4 total runs per game this season, but with Wheeler on the mound and Atlanta’s bats quiet, the under looks mighty tempting.
That said, the best value is still the Phillies on the moneyline or perhaps on the run line if you’re feeling frisky. Keep in mind that they cleared the run line in 6 of their last 7 wins. Wheeler is on a different level, the Phillies have home momentum, and the Braves are trending the wrong way.
- HelloRookie’s Braves vs Phillies Prediction: Phillies 4, Braves 1
- Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies on the run line at +140
We’re going to take the run line on this one because the odds are too tempting to pass up. If anything, the moneyline should have no problem paying, but with the plus money on the line, we’re taking it.
We expect this game to shape up as another dominant pitching night for Wheeler and another tough road outing for an Atlanta team struggling to find its rhythm. Will Atlanta figure it out? Most likely, but tonight’s game isn’t the night.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
