Braves vs Padres Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Padres came out swinging on Opening Day when they rallied late to take a 7-4 win over the Braves. Now with Game 2 set for tonight at Petco Park, the pitching matchup and early season momentum are pointing toward another tight game — this time with a different edge.

There’s still plenty of time to get your bets in on this one and it’s going to be a great ballgame.

Odds and Pitching Matchup

San Diego opened as a slight favorite, sitting at just -115 on the moneyline, while Atlanta is at +110. The total is set at 7.5, shaded slightly toward the under (-125), which is obviously a hat tip to the pitching talent on the mound. The run line has the Braves at +1.5 at -200 and the Padres at -1.5 with some plus money at +165.

As we said, it’s going to be a great game because we’re getting Dylan Cease for the Padres and Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves — two right-handers with very different trajectories in 2024.

Cease is the established workhorse, totaling over 220 strikeouts last season with his electric fastball-slider combo. He also carved up Atlanta with 11 Ks in 6 shutout innings the last time he faced them — so he knows what he’s up against. If he’s on, and he should be, runs will be hard to come by until the bullpen takes over.

Lopez was a sneaky standout in 2024. In his first full year as a starter, he posted a dominant 2.03 ERA and held opponents in check all season long. His slider is definitely legit, but his walk rate did trend up a bit late last season, something the Padres can take full advantage of if they stay patient at the plate.

Key Offense Matchups

This game just might come down to which offense breaks through first — and right now, all signs point to San Diego.

The Padres put up 10 hits and 7 runs in Game 1, and it wasn’t just the big names, though they did their share of the work. The depth was getting it done as well. Jackson Merrill drove in 4, and Fernando Tatis Jr. went 3-for-4 with 2 runs and 2 steals, flashing every tool in his bag. Manny Machado added a pair of hits and looks dialed in already. This team is showing they’re legit all around.

Atlanta got their runs via the long ball — Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley each went yard — but they managed just 7 hits and didn’t do much after the 5th. While the Braves have some real thump with Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson still in the mix, Cease has a track record of neutralizing big power bats like theirs when he’s locked in.

The early numbers reflect that. San Diego is hitting .323 as a team, compared to Atlanta’s .200, and has already driven in more runs with fewer strikeouts. We would love to see the Braves get one back, but it’s not looking promising.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

This feels like a game where pitching takes over early — and Cease has the clear advantage on the bump.

We know what he’s capable of against this Atlanta lineup. He’s already dominated them before, and he’s coming in fresh off a strong 2024 where he led the Padres in IPs and Ks. Lopez is solid, of course, but his rising walk rate could be a problem against a San Diego team that knows how to manufacture runs beyond just the home run ball. If anything, they’ve shown that small ball can get the job done.

Add in Petco Park at night, where the ball doesn’t fly quite the same as others, and this becomes an even tougher environment for the Braves to slug their way to a win. The Padres are playing at home, already up 1-0 in the series, and their lineup looks more dangerous from top to bottom right now. We only see this game unfolding one way.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Padres 4, Braves 1
• Best Bet: Padres ML (-115)

We’re backing San Diego to win this straight up on the moneyline. Cease has the strikeout stuff to limit Atlanta’s big bats, and the Padres’ balanced attack gives them more ways to score. He’ll have Atlanta worn down before the bullpen takes over. However, the Braves can win this game if they hit 2 or 3 bombs later in the game — but if it comes down to stringing together quality at-bats, San Diego has the edge.

We’re looking for a tight game early, but the Padres should pull away late, just like they did on Opening Day. We don’t see this game going 8+ combined runs, so the under at -125 might be a little juiced, but a safer overall bet.