Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick for ALCS Game 3

Game 3 of the ALCS is going down tonight, and the Toronto Blue Jays are hanging on by a thread. After dropping the first 2 games of the series to the Seattle Mariners — in Toronto — Toronto needs a win just to stay alive. Seattle, on the other hand, is just 2 wins away from their first trip ever to the World Series. Momentum is fully on their side, and they’ll have home field and a pitching edge as they look to close it out in 4 games. But this is the Blue Jays we’re talking about, so it won’t be an easy task.

Game Details and Starting Pitchers

Toronto hands the ball to Shane Bieber, who hasn’t looked sharp in limited postseason action. In just 2.2 innings, Bieber gave up 2 earned runs, walked one, and finished with a 6.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. He only struck out 2 batters and gave up a yard bomb in the outing. It wasn’t enough to inspire confidence, but it’s also not his usual self.

Seattle counters with George Kirby, who’s been one of the most reliable arms in the playoffs. He’s logged 10 innings across his postseason starts, where he’s allowed just 3 earned runs while striking out 14 with only a single walk. His ERA sits at 2.70, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a dominant 1.00 WHIP. Simply put, Kirby has been solid and gives the Mariners a major edge on the mound if he can keep this up.

Odds and Betting Lines

As of this morning, the Mariners are listed at -137 on the moneyline, while the Blue Jays sit as slight underdogs at +113. The run line favors Seattle -1.5 at +162, and the Blue Jays +1.5 comes in at -200. The over/under is set at 7 runs, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -106.

The bookmakers are going with what we’ve seen in the first 2 games. Seattle is the better team right now, both at the plate and on the mound, and bookmakers aren’t giving Toronto much benefit of the doubt, especially since they’re heading back to Seattle for games 3 and 4.

Breaking Down Game 3

The first 2 games of this series weren’t just wins for Seattle — they were big, bold statements.

They took Game 1 by a 3-1 margin, then exploded for 10 runs in Game 2, crushing the Jays 10-3. The Blue Jays came into the postseason with a loaded offense, leading the American League in batting average with a .265 and ranking 4th in runs scored with 798. Entering the playoffs, they were clearly the hottest team, and everyone was sure they were heading for the World Series. But in this series, they’ve only managed 4 total runs.

A big issue is that their core bats aren’t producing when they need them most. George Springer, who hit 32 home runs in the regular season, hasn’t done much. Bo Bichette, who led the team with a .311 AVG, is struggling to make contact against Seattle’s pitching. The only consistent bat so far has been Ernie Clement, hitting a .476 AVG this postseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also doing his part with a .375 AVG and 3 RBIs, but beyond that, Toronto’s offense is ice cold, and that’s just not typical of them.

Seattle, meanwhile, is heating up at exactly the right time. Cal Raleigh is on an absolute tear as he’s leading the playoffs with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs, all while batting .357. He’s been a force in the middle of the lineup and hit a bomb in Game 2 that blew the game wide open. The Mariners finished the regular season with the most home runs in the AL with 238, and they’re picking up right where they left off. Even with Julio Rodríguez, who has a .207 in the postseason, not swinging it well, Seattle has gotten production from top to bottom.

Seattle also has the better bullpen and rotation numbers. The Mariners ended the season with a 3.87 ERA, good for 13th in MLB, compared to Toronto’s 4.19 ERA. Their WHIP (1.22 vs. 1.27) and home run prevention are also better, and those things matter in October. Add in the fact that Kirby has already pitched 10 quality innings this postseason while Bieber is still trying to find his footing, and it’s hard to see where Toronto has a real edge in this game.

Toronto’s best chance might be to jump on Kirby early, but that’s easier said than done. He doesn’t give up a ton of walks, keeps the ball in the yard, and forces hitters to earn their way on base. Seattle’s defense and bullpen should be able to handle any damage from there if he gives them a lead.

ALCS Game 3 Prediction and Best Bet

The Blue Jays were one of the best offensive teams in baseball during the regular season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to the postseason. Seattle, on the other hand, is getting elite pitching and timely hitting from their stars. With George Kirby taking the start, Cal Raleigh on fire, and the Mariners playing in front of their home crowd, this one feels like the end of the road for Toronto.

• Prediction: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 2
• Best Bet: Seattle Mariners -137 Moneyline

We never thought we’d bet against Toronto given how hot they were during the regular season, but then again, here we are. The Jays can be a tough team, so we’re going to stay away from the spread, but the moneyline at -137 isn’t a bad shot at all.

Of course, you might be looking for a bit more value, and if so, Cal Raleigh 1.5+ total bases at +130 is worth a strong look. He’s hitting for power and average, and he’s been the most dangerous hitter on either team through 2 games. Throwing both of those on a parlay would get you at +222, which is pretty reasonable.

ALCS Recap and Schedule