Bermuda Championship Preview: DFS Lineup and Best Bet for November 13

This week, the PGA Tour returns to Port Royal Golf Course for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Following a week where we profited on the DFS lineup, but our finishing pick failed to miss the cut! Our finishing pick, Johnny Keefer, went into Saturday sitting in 4th place and proceeded to miss the cut with an awful second round, that’s golf sometimes!

Port Royal is short by PGA course standards, but it does present some challenges. Coastal winds, undulating greens, and ripe for a prime short game! If the weather cooperates, we could see some low scores once again, as we have seen anywhere from -15 to -20s in recent years.

Course Preview — Port Royal Golf Course

● Par: 71

● Yardage: 6,828 yards

● Water in play: 7 holes

● Average green size: 8,000 sq. ft.

Port Royal is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, and that means it puts a premium on accuracy, iron play, and a sharp short game. Port Royal rewards precision, not power. Players who keep it in play, control their wedges, and have a confident putter can shoot low scores and compete on Sunday!

The fairways are fairly generous, and missing the fairway won’t make or break a player’s round, but approach shots demand precision. With water in play on seven holes and the Atlantic Ocean constantly in view, players must stay disciplined and control trajectory in the event of blowing winds. Success this weekend could come down to crisp wedge shots, creative chipping, and confident putting.

Key Stats for Success at Port Royal

1. Birdie-to-Bogey Ratio

On a short layout like this, players need to make birdies in bunches but also avoid the big mistakes that can derail a round, just like we saw with Johnny Keefer last week. This ratio shows who can capitalize on scoring chances while scoring consistently with par or better.

2. Birdie Average

Historically, Port Royal’s winning scores hover around 20-under par, so players who can consistently take advantage of the easy holes will be near the top of the leaderboard. Players who attack the pins could be rewarded and I expect the top players to average -5 to -6 every day.

3. Par-4 Scoring

There are ten par fours, where positioning off the tee should be a top strategy to set up a more precise iron/wedges attempt. The players that dominate the par-4’s will certainly have a chance to be top-20.

4. Strokes Gained: Total

This stat is usually in every article, and for good reason, it shows which players are playing the best for the entire course. Players who are gaining strokes across every part of their game, off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting, are the ones who find themselves atop the leaderboards more times than not!

DFS Lineup Breakdown

Thorbjørn Olesen — $10,100

Going back to Olesen here. He has been the fourth best player in this field over their last 20 rounds in true strokes gained. His recent finishes of T14, T3, T9 and T14 display he is locked in, and has finished inside the top-20 in seven of his last nine events between PGA/European Tours. In all seven of those events he gained over +1.2 true strokes per round!

Pierson Coody — $9,600

Also going back to Coody here. With just four rounds, and a very small sample size, he has the third best course history based on true strokes gained, where he placed T12 here last year. Coody does thrive off the tee and on the greens, so his short game does need to be locked in here, but in the last couple events with shot link data, he has gained strokes on approach and around the green at the Bank of Utah and Sanderson Farms. Coody is number six over the last 20 rounds in total strokes gained and number 2 tee to green!

Matt Kuchar — $8,600

Kuchar’s game is tailor-made for a course like this and he comes in ranked first in this field over the last 20 rounds in true total strokes gained! In his last five events he has four top-25’s with finishes of T11, T18, T13, T44 and T5. He ranks sixth in approach in that time frame and number four in putting. I can trust Kuchar to keep things steady in the wind and make up ground with his short game.

Greyson Sigg — $7,400

Sigg was someone I trusted quite a bit last fall and hes looking to be back in decent form here. Over his last 20 rounds he ranks fifth in tee-to-green and fourth on approach, two very key stats this week. With recent finished of T46, T15, T21, and T19, he has a good change to place better than 46th this week. In Sigg’s last three trips here he has placed T9, T11 and T22!

Ryo Hisatsune — $7,000

Hisatsune has shown an ability to have good performances throughout this season and returns to a place he had success last season finishing T29. Ryo has seven finishes this season inside the T18. His problem has been inconsistencies throughout the bag, one week its his putter, next his approach, but we have seen weeks where his off the tee, approach, around the green and his putter are working. If he can find that groove there’s no reason he can’t find a T40 with multiple birdies to help us score here.

Adam Schenk — $7,000

I like Adams’ course history here, he doesn’t come every year, but when he does, he leaves his mark. Finishing T29 in 2023 and T26 in 2021, and over those eight rounds he gained around a half stroke per round. At $7300 or less, I trust Schenk more than the other options. He hasn’t been in terrible form, he has made four straight cuts, T69, T47, T21 and T30, perhaps he can find it one more week and get inside the top 30 for us!

Top Finishing Pick — Adam Schenk Top 40 (+120)

In the plus money range for Top 40’s, Schenk checks all the right boxes for Port Royal. Over his last four events he has been pretty steady across the bag. He hasn’t gained a ton in any one area, but he’s not giving anything back either. Without Shotlink for this course, we have limited data, but he has performed well off the tee in both performances here. If he can find a performance like he put together at Sanderson Farms or the Procore we could find ourselves in a good position come Sunday!