Maple Leafs vs Bruins Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet

The Toronto Maple Leafs are taking their skates to TD Garden on this Veteran’s Day to take on the red-hot Boston Bruins in an Atlantic Division clash that has plenty of weight despite it being very early in the season. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET, and the Bruins come in riding a monstrous 6-game winning streak — the longest active streak in the division and only 2nd in the NHL behind the Ducks’ 7-game streak.

This is the second time these 2 have squared off in the last few days. The Bruins got the better of Toronto in their last meeting with a convincing 5-3 win on the road. Boston scored five goals from five different players, and nine different Bruins registered at least one point. That depth has been a big part of their recent success, and they’ll look to keep it rolling at home.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Boston comes into tonight as a moderate home favorite, sitting around -145 on the moneyline. The Maple Leafs are priced as slight underdogs at about +125 with the total being set at 6.5 goals, with slight juice to the over — no surprise given how both teams are trending offensively and defensively.

The Bruins come in at 10-7-0 on the season with 20 points, including a 4-3 mark within the Atlantic Division. They’ve outscored opponents 21-12 over the course of their current winning streak, and more importantly, they’ve done it with balanced scoring and solid goaltending.

Toronto, meanwhile, has dropped 2 straight and sits at 8-7-1 with 17 points, holding a 2-4-0 record within the division. Despite scoring 7 combined goals in those last 2 games, they allowed 9 to find the net — which continues to be one of their biggest issues. Their GAA ranks near the bottom of the league at 3.75.

Breaking Down the Matchup

The Leafs can score with the best of them despite being near the bottom of the division. William Nylander has been absolutely electric, notching 8 points in his last 5 games, including 5 goals. He leads the team with 23 points over 8 goals and 15 assists, followed by John Tavares, who has 9 goals and 12 assists, and Matthew Knies, who has 5 goals and 15 assists. That top 6 is undoubtedly producing, but the defense and goaltending are costing them games.

Anthony Stolarz, who has started most of Toronto’s recent games, holds a 6-5-1 record with a 3.35 GAA and a .889 SV%. Those numbers don’t hold up well against a Bruins team averaging 3.3+ GPG during their win streak.

Meanwhile, the Bruins continue to get it done on both ends of the ice. Offensively, Morgan Geekie is heating up with points in 9 of his last 10 games, including 5 points in his last 5. He now has 11 goals on the season and has been a consistent presence in the attacking zone. So, if you’re looking for a prop bet to jump on, that might be the one. His consistency is unmatched.

David Pastrnak is sitting on 399 career goals, just one shy of a huge milestone, and you can bet he’ll be gunning for number 400 in front of the home crowd tonight. He’s been Boston’s most consistent offensive weapon all year and leads the team with a whopping 19 points, which puts him in the top 20 in the NHL.

Boston’s power play is clicking at a respectable 22.2%, while the Leafs are at a weaker 17.1%. The Bruins also have the edge on the PK at 81.3%, slightly better than Toronto’s 80.9%. That matters tonight, as Boston tends to draw and commit a decent number of penalties, where they’re 4th in the NHL with 181 on the season. 

Toronto’s biggest challenge is keeping the puck out of its own net. They’ve allowed 5+ goals in each of their last 2 games and haven’t been able to lock things down in the later minutes of games. Even with a dangerous offensive group, their bottom 4 and goaltending remain a liability.

The Bruins, by contrast, are even in goals for and goals against at 56 each, but they’ve tightened up during this win streak and are getting timely stops. To put it in perspective, before the streak, they had some very lopsided games where they gave up 7 goals to the Senators and the Ducks in losses. They’ve also been better at managing the pace of the game, particularly in 3rd periods — where they’ve outscored opponents 10-4 over the past 6.

Prediction and Best Bet

Boston’s winning streak isn’t a fluke, and they’re red-hot right now. Sure, this winning streak will come to an end at some point, but for now, they’re getting contributions from all 4 lines, the goaltending has been reliable, and the PK unit has held strong. Toronto’s top-heavy offense can undoubtedly create problems, but its goaltending and defensive depth are lagging.

The last meeting between these 2 powerhouses wasn’t particularly close, and not much has changed in the few days since then. Boston is deeper, more disciplined, and playing at home in front of a fired-up crowd.

• Prediction: Bruins 4, Maple Leafs 3
• Best Bet: Take the Boston Bruins -145 moneyline

They’ve already proven they can handle the Leafs and have the momentum to keep the streak alive. We expect the Bruins to come out swinging again, and the Leafs to not have an answer in their own zone.