Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs square off in what we think will be a high-paced yet entertaining matchup at Scotiabank Arena. These two teams met just over a week ago, with Colorado walking away with a dominant 7-4 win. Now, Toronto is looking for some revenge on their home ice.

Colorado enters this game as a slight favorite at -125 on the moneyline, while the Maple Leafs sit at +105, near even, as home underdogs. The total is set at 6.5 goals, which makes sense to us given how much offensive firepower will be on the ice for tonight’s game.

Both teams have been trending toward high-scoring games, so this one could turn into another shootout. Who will walk away with 2 points for their playoff positioning? 

Can Toronto Keep Up With Colorado’s Firepower?

Toronto’s offense is never the issue and when you look at who they have in their top 6, it’s easy to see why.

With Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander leading the charge, the Leafs can put up quite a few goals in rapid succession. Nylander leads the team with 38 goals this season, while Marner has been the top playmaker for the Leafs with 61 assists. On top of that, their offensive depth allows them to be dangerous against any opponent, but the concern remains on the other end of the ice.

The Maple Leafs’ blue line and goaltending have been inconsistent — at best.

Joseph Woll has been the primary option in the net with a 23-12-0 record, but his .905 SV% ranks in the bottom half of NHL starters. Allowing 2.76 goals per game isn’t exactly terrible, but when you’re facing a team like Colorado who has some of the most dominant offensive power, that number becomes a bit more concerning. Backup goalie Martin Murray hasn’t been much of a reliable option either, so Toronto will need Woll to be at his absolute best and that’s who we’re pretty sure will start tonight.

Toronto’s last game against Colorado exposed their biggest weakness — defensive structure. They gave up 7 goals, allowing MacKinnon, Necas, and Makar to have their way in the zone. The Avalanche had 34 shots on goal in that game, and if Toronto doesn’t make adjustments on the defensive end, it could be another long night.

Avalanche Rolling Into This Matchup

Colorado has been one of the best teams in the league over the past few weeks as they’ve gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. It just proves they are peaking at the right time. That stretch includes their big wins over Toronto, where their top offensive players took over, and Dallas, where they edged out an OT win against one of the best teams in the NHL.

Nathan MacKinnon continues to play at nothing less than an MVP level. He leads the Avs with 103 points on the season which puts him 1st in the NHL. His 76 assists simply highlight how he makes everyone around him better, and he remains a major problem for opposing defenses. Martin Necas has also been stellar, and with Cale Makar quarterbacking the power play unit, this is one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

Another big factor for Colorado’s success has been goaltending. Mackenzie Blackwood has been rock-solid in between the pipes. He’s posting a 24-16-6 record with a .915 SV%. He has outperformed Woll this season, which gives Colorado a clear edge in the net. The Avalanche’s defense has also been more reliable by shutting down shooting lanes, allowing fewer quality scoring chances than Toronto.

This game is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair, but the big difference will be which team can make more defensive stops. If Toronto struggles to contain MacKinnon and Necas again, it’s hard to see them pulling this one out and getting the win.

Prediction & Best Bet

Of the 2 games tonight, this should be the more exciting game. 

Colorado has a clear advantage — They’ve been the hotter team, they already dominated Toronto last week, and their goaltending has been much more reliable. Of course, Toronto is a dangerous team at home, but unless Woll stands on his head and plays the best he has all season, they’re going to have a tough time slowing down the Avalanche attack.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Avs 5, Leafs 3
• Best Bet: Colorado on the ML (-125)

The Avalanche have won 8 of their last 10, and their ability to control the pace of the game in both 5 on 5 and special teams gives them the edge once again. We’re expecting another high-scoring game, but Colorado’s offense will prove to be too much.