Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick

The undefeated #16 Vanderbilt Commodores walk into Bryant-Denny Stadium with a perfect 5-0 record, but a massive reality check could be waiting as they take on the #10 Alabama Crimson Tide. After an impressive bounce-back win at Georgia, Alabama undeniably has the momentum coming into today’s game, home-field advantage, and a big opportunity to solidify its status as a playoff contender.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Today’s SEC clash kicks off at 3:30 PM ET on ABC, with the Crimson Tide looking to build off a gritty 24-21 road win over Georgia in the biggest game of the week last week. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is trying to prove its record isn’t just smoke and mirrors and that there’s some substance to their team.

Apparently, bookmakers aren’t buying the Commodores just yet. Alabama is currently a 10.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 55.5 total points. On the moneyline, Alabama is listed as a heavy favorite at -425, while Vanderbilt offers a juicy +330 return for anyone brave enough to back the upset.

How They Match Up

Alabama currently ranks 10th nationally in EPA per pass, and quarterback Ty Simpson has been, for the most part, efficient and mistake-free. He’s thrown for a dominant 1,138 yards, 11 TDs, and not a single interception, completing 69% of his passes. Alabama’s passing attack averages 321+ YPG, good for 14th in the country. Looking at who they took down last week, that’s impressive.

The primary target is unquestionably Germie Bernard, who’s averaging 15.5 yards per catch with 4 TDs already. Now add in a steady rotation of pass catchers like sophomore Ryan Williams and junior Isaiah Horton, and Simpson has weapons to stretch any secondary — especially Vanderbilt’s.

The Commodores’ defense is vulnerable through the air, and they haven’t really played any solid QBs yet. More on that in just a moment. They rank outside the top 80 in EPA/pass allowed and 104th in points against, giving up 86 points over their last 2 games alone. That spells trouble against a red-hot Bama offense that can dominate on the ground or in the air.

That said, Vanderbilt does have a legitimate threat in quarterback Diego Pavia. He has already totaled 1,211 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 INTs, while also rushing for 294 yards and 2 scores to his name. His dual-threat ability has helped Vanderbilt climb to 6th nationally in EPA/rush, and they’re averaging nearly 223 rushing yards per game, 24th in the country.

Pavia isn’t doing it alone on the ground. The run game also features Sedrick Alexander, who has 243 yards, and the seasoned veteran Makhilyn Young, who has 211 yards and 4 TDs, giving the offense depth. But more importantly, this unit stays on schedule and avoids major mistakes. Vanderbilt leads Alabama in total offense, gaining 494.4 yards per game to Bama’s 443.8. This is where the story gets a little more interesting.

The problem is the strength of the schedule. Vanderbilt’s wins include Georgia State, Utah State, and Charleston Southern, with only 2 victories over Power 5 opponents — one of which came after the opposing quarterback got knocked out of the game.

Alabama, on the other hand, owns the best win of either team — a road win over the then #5 Georgia. Their lone loss came in Week 1 against FSU, and the Tide have been dominant ever since. In the last 3 weeks, they’ve outscored their opponents 135-35, including a 38-14 win over Wisconsin and a 73-0 thrashing of ULM, essentially a practice game.

On defense, Alabama has the edge again. The Crimson Tide is allowing just 66 points through 5 games, good for 73rd in the nation. Vanderbilt has allowed 86, and they’ve committed far more penalties — ranking 5th in penalty yards nationally. That’s a dangerous combination when facing a team as efficient and disciplined as Alabama.

Prediction and Pick

Vanderbilt will move the ball, and there’s no question about that. Diego Pavia is good enough to keep drives alive with his legs when he scrambles, and the run game will challenge Alabama’s average rush defense. But make no mistake — Alabama has the advantage in every meaningful area, and it’s no wonder why there’s nearly an 11-point spread on this game.

Ty Simpson hasn’t turned the ball over once this season, and with Bernard and company creating mismatches downfield, the Tide should put up points as quickly as ever. Once Alabama gets a lead, the pressure will mount on Vanderbilt’s defense, which hasn’t really shown it can stop a balanced attack like this.

Vanderbilt’s 5-0 record is impressive on the surface, and we can appreciate that, but they’ve yet to be tested at this level. Alabama, with a proven QB, deeper roster, and home-field edge, is more than capable of covering the 10.5-point spread.

• Crimson Tide vs Commodores Prediction: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 21
• Best Bet: Alabama -10.5 (-108)

Even with Vanderbilt’s rushing attack, we feel that Alabama’s ability to control the game script, dominate through the air, and capitalize on defensive lapses makes the spread the smarter play than the moneyline. If you’re looking for a little more value for your bet slip, you might want to consider a prop on Ty Simpson to throw 2.5+ TDs at -106 — his efficiency, tools, and Vanderbilt’s defensive gaps set that prop bet up nicely.